HM Looks to Europe for some travelling, and Oman Cavalry set to dazzle at Queen Liz's big bash

It was nice to hear from one of my sources that HM will be visiting Europe - the Royal yacht Al Said is currently awaiting instruction in the beautiful port of Dubrovnic, stocked 24/7 with fresh chocolates and flowers no doubt. Al SAID, at 155m long, is so big it travels with a dedicated support vessel FULK AL SALAMAH, just 137m long.

The arrival of the 3rd largest private yacht in the world was enjoyed by the enthusiastic 'Boat Spotters'. Here's a nice video, in case you haven't seen Al Said.




(See youtube)

It's nice to see HM give the boats some use. He last visited Croatia in 2003 and brough along a whole retenue. He was expected to arrive by plane a couple of weeks ago, as reported on 30th March when the boat arrived in port.

Not only is the cruise season and tourist season well and truly open in Dubrovnik but it also seems today that the luxury yacht season is opening. This morning in Gruž harbour the private yacht of one of the richest men in the world arrived. “Al Said” is the third largest yacht in the world and owned by the Sultan of Oman, Qaboos bin Said al Said. The 71 year-old sultan owns five yachts in total and Al Said is the largest measuring 155 metres and holding a crew of 140 and up to 65 guests. It is believed that the sultan will arrive tomorrow by private jet but the purpose of his visit is still unknown.

And what is cooler than to visit Europe with your own floating 7 star hotel. He deserves a good bit of R&R too. Having seen off the challenges of the Arab Spring and the Sohar & Salalah protests, new Majlis underway, new set of Government Ministers, and with Iran in talks, it's a great time for a vacation.

Also, I wonder if HM sees parallels between Croatia and Oman? The scenery is very 'Omani' around Dubrovnik. And there are similar issues of tribalism, tourism, competitiveness, unemployment, currency, & powerful neighbours. How to get Omani's more involved working in the services sector would be some good research. Croatia would love to get some of that State Investment Fund, so there will probably be deals afoot.

Of course one big reason for the trip to Europe will be for His Majesty to attend Queen Elizabeth's massive Diamond Jubilee celebration party.

It's at Windsor Castle from 10th - 13th May, in case you didn't get your invite yet. Everybody who's anybody will be there, Daaaarling!

"The World Comes To Windsor" will celebrate 60 years of the Queen's rule.


Oman will be helping the celebrations with it's own contribution to the pagent: A Passion for Tradition.

A Passion for Tradition by The Royal Cavalry of Oman.The Royal Cavalry and The Mounted Band will be performing along with The Royal Guard of Oman with 100 pure bred Arabian Horses, two drum horses and a Hanoverian ridden by the Conductor.

Awesome. Oman gets to represent the Middle East. Take that Dubai.

Photo: His Majesty Sultan Qaboos will be contributing a special Oman Cavalry & hoursemanship turn for Queen Elizabeth's Diamond Jubilee extravaganza next month.


MeanwhileIt will be interesting to see the fate of the unnamed unlicensed driver who killed 2 women in Marbella. Anyone have the details?

Muscat: A young man, driving without a licence, killed two people as death toll from road accidents last week reached 14.

The speeding driver ran over three women after losing control of control his vehicle in the residential neighbourhood of Mabella in Seeb district on Wednesday.

Two women died on the spot while the third is battling for her life at a hospital in Muscat. The driver escaped with minor injuries, Royal Oman Police (ROP) said on Saturday

"Five people were killed in Muscat last in road accidents as the countrywide count rose to 14," a spokesperson for the ROP's Public Relations Department said.

And yes, I know some of you are still waiting for Part 3. It's coming along. I'm a very busy Dragon right now!

Shura given new powers. Oman to offer asylum to Ghaddafi family? News round up.

So the Shura elections were held successfully, with just 1 woman elected (Congratulations to Nu'amah Bint Jamayel Al Busaidi). 1 is better than zero I guess, although most observers were hoping for more female representatives.


Photo: Happy young voters with photo's of their preferred candidates. Sunil K. Vaidya/Gulf News

After the elections, as promised to the protesters earlier this year, HM also issued the first major constitutional change since the Basic Law of the State was issued in 1996, granting (limited) legislative powers to the Shura and allowing the Majlis Ash' Shura to elect their own Chairman. The law even allows 15 members of the Majlis Ash'Shura to summon a 'Services' Minister for a grilling.

The decree updated the process of how a successor to the Sultan is selected, replacing the Defense Council with a small committee that includes the Majlis Chairman.

These are certainly big changes, and represent another step on the path to more effective representative government. Muscat Confidential has long held the view that HM has a goal of leaving Oman with a Constitutional Monarchy, and this is a key part of such a transition. Local legal-eagle BluChi wrote a good summary of the changes here.

Oman Daily Observer
Fri, 21 October 2011
...
Article 58 (bis 35): The draft laws prepared by the government shall be referred to the Majlis Oman for approval or amendment and then directly be submitted to His Majesty to issue them. In case of any amendments by the Majlis Oman on a draft law, His Majesty may return the same to the council for reconsidering the amendments and then shall be submitted again to His Majesty.

Article 58 (bis 36): The Majlis Oman may propose draft laws and refer the same to the government for assessment and returning the same to the Majlis, procedures provide for in Article 58 (bis 35) shall be followed in approving, amending or issuing the said draft laws.
...

Article 58 (bis 43): On a request signed by at least 15 members of the Majlis Ash’shura of any of the services ministers may be subject to interpellation on matters related to exceeding their prerogatives by acting in contrary to the law. The Majlis shall debate the same and submit the outcome to His Majesty the Sultan.
...

The results of the election showed how most of the voting is still done along tribal lines, with some people reporting that they were even told to vote for the local tribal leader. As political parties remain illegal in Oman, this is probably no surprise. Without a coordinated party structure, it is hard for potential Shura members to establish a cohesive manifesto, and even harder for voters to really know what they are voting for wrt specific policies or new legislation. But at least the ban on all polital parties keeps out the election of a dedicated religious extremist party.

It is questionable whether the Shura has the capability to use these new powers. This would require the Shura members be given the budget and authority to assemble a staff of advisors, who could then analyse the draft legislation sent from the Council of Ministers, and have a bigger chance of doing a decent job writing suitable amendments. The Shura need independent lawyers and experienced technocrats to take on the civil servants in the Ministries.

Oman still struggles to overcome the historic burden of tribalism and family-related favouritism. But, hey, this new law is a good start in a region not known for democracy.


Bit of a catch up on miscellaneous news.

Oman to offer Ghaddafi family asylum?
Strange report today that Oman was prepared to give the Ghaddafi family political asylum. Interesting.

While Oman is a signatory (in December 2000) to the International Criminal Court treaty, they have not yet ratified the treaty and so are not at present a 'State Party' to the ICC. So how any ICC arrest warrants would apply in Oman is a bit vague.

Oman 'ready' to give Gaddafi family policial asylum
Oct 27, 2011 22:16 Moscow Time

The authorities of Oman are prepared to grant political asylum to the members of Muammar Gaddafi’s family, Ash-Shark al-Ausat newspaper reports with reference to Libyan sources.

The authorities stressed that members of Muammar Gaddafi’s family will not be involved in politics in Oman.

According to other sources close to Gaddafi’s family, its surviving members may go to South Africa in the coming days where they will be joined by Gaddafi’s son Saadi who is now in Niger. (TASS)

If true, I wonder if we'll see this story in the Times of Oman?

Meanwhile.

Iranian Threat prompts Oman to buy advanced US anti-aircraft missile systems.
It seems releasing Iranian hostages can help get you access to some nice military kit. Oman is buyinga suite of advanced US anti-aircraft missiles. These would be capable of shooting down unmanned drones as well as helicopters and fixed wing aircraft. While the Iranian airforce may not be up to much, I guess it's always nice to be prepared.



Photo: the SLAMRAAM anti-aircraft system by Raytheon. Toys for the boys.

October 28, 2011: The Persian Gulf state of Oman is buying 18 American Avenger anti-aircraft systems, as well as 266 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles for them. Also being purchased on 290 SLAMRAAM (ground launched AMRAAM air-to-air missiles) and twenty Hummers to serve as launchers. A Sentinel radar system is being bought to support the SLAMRAAMs.

Avengers are hummers with a turret mounted on the back. The turret contains two missile pods (each containing four Stinger anti-aircraft missiles). Under one pod there is an M3P .50 caliber (12.7mm) machine gun. The weapons operator has use of a FLIR (night vision device) and a laser range finder. The machine-gun, however, can't be depressed sufficiently to fire at ground targets towards the front of the vehicle. The missiles have a range of four kilometers, the machine-gun about half that. The usual price is $12-15 million per Avenger system, including Stinger missiles, training gear, spare parts and training and technical assistance.
...

Sweet.

US Sec. State Clinton visits HM Sultan Qaboos to say "Thanks" on Iran.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Oman today, seen here touring the Beit Al-Zubair Museum. Photo AFP



Nice to see US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dropping by today for a 121 with HM Sultan Qaboos. My take on the US agenda:

1/ Say a big Thanks from the President for paying the Iranians and negotiating the release of those stupid American idiots. We owe you one.

2/ Discuss Iran (again), and the plot to assassinate an Ambassador of a fellow GCC state in the USA. [If true, this would be anathema to HM].

3/ Discuss and coordinate on the situations in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, and the GCC involvement in the search for solutions. Plus Afghanistan & Pakistan; Turkey & Israel. Iraq.

4/ Cautious praise on the recent elections: right direction, more power to Majlis eagerly awaited. And need more women.

5/ Talks on the Arab Spring, esp. Egypt and Libya.

6/ US support for HM. HM has done an excellent job as a regional & moderate peacemaker, and was the first leader to visit Iran after their most recent 'elections', hence the backchannel. Appreciation for his continuing to be a strong US ally in the region, and his cooperation on all levels.






It got Oman into the venerable Washington Post, with the gem:

... talks in Sultan Qaboos bin Sa’id’s lavish palace, in the capital of this tiny Gulf state,....

The Secretary certainly praised Oman lavishly in the press release.

..."The Sultanate of Oman has made more progress than any country in the world in the past forty years, which has laid the stability at home and peace with its neighbors. ...It must be for other countries to learn how to become the Sultanate in this short period of time, a unique model of development ... in the Middle East. "

I wonder if she raised civil rights, and developments in the arrest and trials of journalists? (For those who care, the appeal was delayed until the 22nd October)



Also in Bloomberg here:

Clinton in Oman for Talks on Iran, Protests Across Arab World

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan - Oct 19, 2011 10:10 AM GMT+0400

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is visiting Oman today to thank the Gulf state’s ruler for his role in securing the release of three American hikers jailed by Iran, and to discuss efforts to meet demands for greater economic and political freedoms in the sultanate.

Clinton will also hold talks with Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said on the recent alleged plot by Iran to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington, and protests in nearby Syria and Yemen that have claimed the lives of demonstrators as the countries’ leaders cling to power, a U.S. official told reporters traveling with the secretary of State.

The U.S. is seeking to exert pressure on Iran, which it views as a rogue state that threatens global security, and Oman is key to that effort as a rare U.S. ally that has a friendly relationship with the government in Tehran, said the U.S. official, who spoke on condition that his name not be used because of the sensitive nature of the talks.

Qaboos was instrumental in the release last month of Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, who spent two years imprisoned in Iran on charges of illegal entry and espionage, and in last year’s release of a third hiker, Sarah Shourd.

Lawyers for the three said Oman arranged for $500,000 in bail to be paid for each as a condition of their release. The trio, who denied spying, said they were trekking in Iraq in July 2009 when they were beckoned to approach a guard who then arrested them for illegal entry into neighboring Iran.
....

HM Sultan Qaboos interview with US in 2005: On Women wearing Hijab, Free speech, Iran, and a whole heap more.

As I wrote when Wikileaks released the first few cables, one of the best parts of the material were the possibility of more interviews with HM Sultan Qaboos.




HM does not do many interviews, and getting to 'sit in' on a small discussion with His Majesty is a rare and wonderful honour. HM is one smart cookie, and his advise and observations are generally pretty spot on.

In this cable from 2005, just released, he gives a far ranging view of his opinions across the Middle East: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi, and some domestic issues.

In the middle of the discussion is this, HM is reported to have discussed (* see disclaimer) the Hijab.

...

¶8. (C) Revealing much about his own views on religion, the Sultan observed that religion combines many features: fundamental pillars of belief, rules of interpersonal behavior, and a kind of social contract, among others. Islam, he said, strictly proscribes only a very narrow band of activities, such as drinking blood and eating pork; everything else is simply cultural interpretation.

He finds it ridiculous that some people claim women must wear a hijab as an article of faith, whereas the Quran makes no such requirement.

...

Wow. Once again, HM totally rocks. Take that creeping Wahabi-ism. Ladies, over to you! You are free to wear what you want - including the Hijab - but the reason you can wear a hijab is because it's up to you and your cultural traditions, NOT because someone has the right to tell you to wear it or force you to wear it under a religious threat. I guess it wasn't necessary to mention the Niqab.

Photo: Omani Hijab - not prescribed by Quran.


On freespeech and extremism:
Later, he talks about freedom of expression. As well as saying (when discussing Iraq) that "Ordinary people do not want religious or ethnic strife, but rather jobs and personal security", HM expanded on the importance of Arabs expressing their opinions more openly. :

...
¶15. (C) Asked to gauge the strength of terror groups today, the Sultan agreed with GEN Abizaid that they appear to be weaker, but that it is difficult to know what they may be organizing themselves for in the future. He felt extremist ideology has been discredited by its senseless violence.

The Sultan argued that freedom of conscience and speech were the best antidote to extremist ideology, and was encouraged that Arabs appear to be getting over their fear of speaking out and expressing their views. It is time, he said, to let the silent majority speak and exile extremists to the margins of society where they belong.

He also thought that couching harsh ideologies in religious cloaks was likewise losing its appeal, in part given the human nature of fearing eternal damnation for violating true religious tenets.

...

So HM also supports free speech, and cites the connection between free speech and its impact of suppressing extremism. People have always wondered how the Sablas and Forums and blogs remained on-line, now we know! It also speaks to HM's responses to the protests this year.


Advice on Iran:
Earlier, HM generously gives his visitor, the US CENTCOM General Abizaid, some really excellent advice on Iran:

...
Offering the unique perspective of an ancient state that has always bordered Iran, the Sultan cautioned the U.S. not to be fooled by the superficial patina of the "Islamic Republic of Iran." "You are dealing with Persia, not the 'Islamic Republic.'"
...

This is so true. Every Iranian I meet just wants a peaceful secure economy in Iran, and almost always they have relatives in the USA, and actually really don't mind the USA at all. I wish the new Republican presidential candidates could get that. That one observation contains a heap of deep strategic wisdom, IMHO.

He gives more advice on Iran to the General, detailed in a different cable here


Implications for Oman
I just wish HM would give more speeches and interviews of this nature, in public. In this way his views would have a more pervasive and perhaps longer lasting impact, as he is so sensible in his prescriptions. His arguments are so convincing and imbued with integrity. What a leader. He should show it off a lot more.

How can Omanis get a chance to share more directly in this leadership via the media? Can you imagine HM tweeting?

President Obama has a blog, website, tweeter account, photos, speeches, etc etc etc. Why doesn't HM bypass the MOI and get some young Omani on-line intelligensia to hook him up on the information superhighway?

Follow this link to see the whole interview. It's too big to post here in full.


IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: * These alleged confidential documents are more accurately "what wikileaks and their anonymous source purports to be what those representatives from the US State department chose to commit formally in writing (and after editing and review) to the US Secretary of State about what HM Sultan Qaboos was perceived by them to have probably said, or inferred, to them about what HM's opinions were, in an unstated context, and when knowingly shared by HM with official representatives of the US State Department in a non-121 meeting attended by other persons".

Gedit? Caveat Emptor indeed. We weren't there, so you don't know what really happened, right?

In this world, some (or most) of these cables may be official unoffical propaganda/black intel, from almost anyone. It's just the internet after all. So readers are advised that all this is for entertainment value only. Treat it as a novel. For god's sake don't go off and do anything silly based on these digital bits and bytes. And that advice applies to professionals and amateurs alike!

Oman's heavy handed treatment of peaceful protestors may catch the Global media's attention.

Tension remains high in Salalah, as the families and friends of those arrested on Thursday & Friday - having been rounded up by the Army for protesting via a sit-in outside the Governor's place downtown - are now forming a second protest outside the local prison demanding their release.

According to reports from Salalah local blogger Dhofari Gucci, several of the protests lead 'speakers' were arrested and immediately taken back to Muscat "...namely Nasser Sakroon, Bakhit Al Mahri, Fahim Al Mashani, Salim Al Mashani, Amer Hardan , and others...."

Oman does not provide its citizens subjects the right of habeous corpus**, and so I presume these gentlemen are getting the extended VIP tour of the Dark Castle, ISS's brand new mega-bunker-fortress up above Qurm.

Photo 23.589849, 58.477162: Oman's Internal Security Services new building: The Dark Castle. The Government is currently hosting extended tours for a few lucky representatives of Salalah-based human rights activists.

The Ministry of Information dismissed the press release and described the arrests as yet another example of the caring nature of Oman's Government: "We're simply giving these long suffering protesters a chance to get away from it all, with an unforgetable trip away, and all expenses paid too. It's an experience I'm hoping our guests will find quite... enlightening." The Minister of the Interior added, "We've always been a Government that listens to the people. In the case of our new guests from Salalah, we'll even be recording what they say! I think reasonable people will see how we want to hear absolutely everything they have to tell us."



Meanwhile,
News of the surprise round-up of what had been a generally peaceful scene has reached the wire services, and despite the dominance of extremely violent reports coming from Syria and Yemen, Oman's news often made the editorial cut too. So far, Sultan Qaboos is still generally being portrayed as responding with moderation. So far.

But the release of an international press statement condemning the arrests of "human rights activists" issued by 'a group of Omani Activists', and picked up by wire service AFP, was soon appearing on hundreds of media outlets, including The LA Times (see a few others below*). At a stroke, this has successfully branded the protesters as the good guys. Does Oman News Agency not realise that by refering to them with words like "provocateurs" and "attempt[ing] to incite sedition", it makes HM sound just like Ghaddafi or Ahmadinejad?

Omani authorities have carried out a wave of arrests against human rights activists calling for reforms in the Gulf monarchy, a group of activists says in a statement received by AFP on Tuesday.

"We strongly condemn the repression and restrictions to the legitimate right of activists to express themselves peacefully," said the statement. The activists described the "arrests targeting those who were calling for rational dialogue" as "disappointing".

Great PR for the (un-named) 'activists'. The protesters are learning fast.

I think the Government's agressive move on what was a peaceful sit-in was pretty damn stupid. They could have just left them there, harmlessly talking to each other and delegations of minor civil servants, while in the real world simply by-passing them, ignoring most of their 'demands' and doing what-ever the Government wanted. If the protesters ever really got out of hand and used violence, then they could properly arrest those breaking the law, and deal with them in the courts.

Detaining people against their will for the "seditious crime" of peacefully sitting around and voicing an opinion comes across as simultaneously despotic and weak. Doing under cover of night with APCs & military troops from the north of the country, while shutting down the internet and mobile phones... well, it just lets everyone around the world play the 'spot the dictatorship' game.

For now, HM's reasonable reputation is standing. But that won't last very long.

I can only suggest readers support Amnesty International's approach to this. While they have not yet responded to the latest arrests, from their recent release about the earlier detention of the Sohar protesters, here is the informattion you need:

PLEASE WRITE IMMEDIATELY in Arabic, English or your own language:
 Welcome the release without charge of those arrested following the protests in Sohar and Muscat;
 Urge the authorities to ensure that the at least nine men who remain detained are protected from torture and other
ill-treatment, and given regular access to their families, lawyers and any medical attention they may require;
 Call for their immediate and unconditional release if they are prisoners of conscience held solely for peacefully
exercising their rights to freedom of expression and assembly; otherwise they should be released unless they are
promptly charged with recognizable criminal offences and tried in conformity with international fair trial standards;
 Ask for details of any charges brought against them and clarification of their current legal status and whereabouts
in detention.

PLEASE SEND APPEALS BEFORE 2 JUNE 2011 TO:

His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Sa’id
Head of State, Prime Minister, Foreign
Affairs, Defence and Finance Minister
Diwan of the Royal Court
The Palace, Muscat 113
Sultanate of Oman
Fax: +968 24 735 375

Salutation: Your Majesty


His Excellency Sayyid Hamoud bin
Faisal bin Said Al Busaidi
Minister of the Interior
Ministry of Interior
PO Box 127
Ruwi 112, Muscat
Sultanate of Oman

Salutation: Your Excellency


And copies to:
Mohammed bin Abdullah Al Riyam i
Chairman
National Human Rights Commission
P.O.Box 29, Postal Code: 103
Bareq A' Shati, Muscat, Sultanate of
Oman
Fax: +968 24648801
Email: enquiry@nhrc.om


Also send copies to diplomatic representatives accredited to your country. Please check with your section office if sending appeals after the above
date. This is the first update of UA 96/11. Further information: http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/MDE20/001/2011/en

* Reports:
AFP, Iran TV, the medialine, Zaywa, etc.



** Habeous Corpus
I'd recommend to interested readers the history of this important principal of English common law. (from wikipedia): The first recorded usage of habeas corpus was in 1305, during the reign of King Edward I. However, other writs were issued with the same effect as early as the reign of Henry II in the twelfth century. Blackstone explained the basis of the writ, saying "The King is at all times entitled to have an account, why the liberty of any of his subjects is restrained, wherever that restraint may be inflicted."

Indeed. Note this does not prevent people being held without trial where such things are deemed legal, nor does it ensure a fair trail. But it does force an explanation of their imprisonment, which only seem just.

wiki again:

...
The writ of habeas corpus is one of what are called the "extraordinary", "common law", or "prerogative writs", which were historically issued by the English courts in the name of the monarch to control inferior courts and public authorities within the kingdom. The most common of the other such prerogative writs are quo warranto, prohibito, mandamus, procedendo, and certiorari. The due process for such petitions is not simply civil or criminal, because they incorporate the presumption of non-authority. The official who is the respondent has the burden to prove his authority to do or not do something. Failing this, the court must decide for the petitioner, who may be any person, not just an interested party. This differs from a motion in a civil process in which the movant must have standing, and bears the burden of proof.
...

Middle East populist 'Contagion' reaches Oman - Violence is without popular support. Sultan Qaboos retains confidence.

Wow. What a week since February 26th. (Note: I've been on the road, little access to the 'net, so apologies for the delay getting back to you!)

The protests that started in Sohar (with some idiotic and pointless violence by some of those 'idle hands') have expanded rapidly, encouraged by the immediate response it got from HM, and it has certainly rattled not just Oman's ruling clique, but also our neighbours to the West ("if it can happen in Oman, no-one is safe"). As a result, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi are even offering Bahrain and Oman aid money to throw at the population.

The foreign press is also variable. Foreign Policy noted that HM Sultan Qaboos, "Oman's renaissance man", shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as the butcher of Tripoli Ghadaffi.The FT's Simeon Kerr posted a great article on his time as "an honoured guest of the Oman military". It sooo captures the spirit of Oman!

Photo: The now infamous Globe roundabout in Sohar. Pic ripped shamelessly from the blog of Dan & Jillian

Note: For up to date info on Oman's riots, as I'm only blogging remotely, please check out Muscat Mutterings. In Sohar: the excellent blog of expat couple Dan & Jillian; in Salalah: Ever reliable Dhofari Gucci. Tourists should not cancel their holidays, by the way. All accounts indicate the country is safe, although actually visiting the sites of the protests should be undertaken carefully.

I have little sympathy for those killed in Sohar while attempting to storm a police station - what did they think was going to happen? It's not something that should have cost Al Mamari his job, IMHO.


Meanwhile,
As you will have read all over the net, Tunisian(?)-style riots were happening in Oman over the past week. It seems there were enough bored youngsters combined with a significant number of those suffering with low salaries to get out and wave plackards. But unlike the other riots in the regions there are a few key differences:

1/ There is no popular support at all for anything against His Majesty.
These riots, especially those with any violence or that show disrespect to the Sultan, are not supported by most adults in Oman. In fact, there is a general disbelief that violent protesters are even 'true Omani'. They're apparently either Emiratis, or 'Baluchis'. Or ... well, anyone else. Afterall, burning a Lulu hypermarket is really, really dumb. They were one of the few sources of unskilled Omani employment they had!

2/ No coherent organisation.
The demands are legion, and often both self serving and facile. 'Forgive all private debts', 'reduce the prices of things' etc. There is also a smattering of Saudi-style religious extremism 'segregate the schools'. As a result, some of the more potent messages, such as turning the Majlis Al Shura into a true legislative body, are being diluted. But the generally accepted demands are: jobs, more action for getting rid of corruption, more power to the Majlis Al Shura.

3/ Mainly stupid unemployed youngsters with nothing better to do.
Other movements have been broad based: including the middle class, military, academics, exiled leaders, women, etc. The ones in Sohar seem to be just ignorant youth with a desire to emulate the other countries and a message mainly involving 'give me stuff for free, especially cash'. How else to explain the total stupidity of trying to attack a police station with stones and molitof cocktails? This is changing however, as protests spread and are increasingly seen to be successful in getting results from the Government - especially in Salalah and now to Petroleum Development Oman staff near Haima.

4/ No agenda of 'regime change'
Even the violent protests have supported His Majesty and the core principles of benign dictatorship. Yes, there are compliants about corruption, but it's all within a general acceptance of the current system. Muscat Mutterer reported a demand for a new constitution however.

As other bloggers on the scene have indicated, there is no danger to the general populace as long as you don't go hanging around the site of a protest (and probably not even then).

The Omani Government's response, however, has been lacklustre.
Come on guys. Since the protest movement spread to Egypt, and certainly Bahrain, could you not have done some thinking in advance about how you would respond if it happened here too?

The announcements so far are unfortunately characteristic of the general ineptitude of the Omani Government of late: poorly thought through, knee-jerk reactions & top down statements of intent with no description of the 'how' or even the underlying principles (perhaps with the one possible exception of the desire to seperate puplic prosecution from the Police). The royal decree to 'create 50,000 jobs' was a classic example: this could have come as a school project from the very high schools that are pumping out these idiotic rioters. Where are 50,000 jobs supposed to come from? Doing what exactly?

As in Saudi, the urge is to throw money at the problem and try putting on a bandaid to cover up the core problems. Announcing a universal unemployment benefit of 150 rials will just make things worse - if anything creating a larger disinsentive to avoid work, and subsiding idleness. And I'm sure the chance of a private business firing an Omani will now become (if this was possible) even more difficult, again, exactly the opposite of what's needed! The general uselessness of the unemployed youth to do anything that generates a profit, combined with their poor education, lack of work ethic, and an overwhelming sense of entitlement already serve to make imported labour (cheaper, smarter, work harder, and essentially bonded to their employer) the way to go.

So, as I watch the Reuters and FT reports, my expectations are low. [Note to foreign journos - please find another adjective to describe Oman than 'sleepy'] All signs are that the system will trundle on, a reshuffle here, a study there, a lot more public money thrown at the squeeky wheels.


What would I do?
OK. Here's some ideas. I'd love to hear what you think. What ideas do you have?

Allow a free media & crack down on mysterious income sources.
Encourage debate of public policy alternatives & allow the exposure of poor government outcomes. Have public trials for corruption cases and name them in the papers. Insist Senior Government figures and their immediate families publish the sources of income, and setting up income tax above say, 50,000 rials per year. Institute a wealth tax for assets (including international assets) above 200k (with an excemption for 1 domestic house up to 500k) at around 1% per annum. Punish tax evasion severely. Put term limits on Ministers so they can only be in power a maximum of 8 years. People should note that even saying the Government system is not perfect is currently illegal in Oman. A lot of these poorly defined and potentially highly draconian laws restricting the media and civil society need to be axed.

Change the political system.
Establish a new constitution that puts the Majlis on a path to take charge of legislation, along with accountability for results. Allow political parties. Ensure the religious extremists cannot overturn the rights of women. Allow real unions, especially for the underclass of manual imported labour.

Improve Educational meaningfulness.
Establish a University dedicated to the study of the business of Government. Ban degrees from useless 'paper mill Universities'. Seperate the delivery of education from its testing, to try and get students actually learning rather than 'passing' fake exams while being allowed to plagiarise and cheat.

Level the employment playing field.
Start to break up the oligarchs by taxing all imported labour at a flat minimum rate, say 30 rials per month, plus a % of their salary above that. At the same time, allow Omani's to be fired much more easily (even if they can only be replaced by another Omani). Over time, crank up the minimum rate and the %. The objective is to make it a lot more expensive to hire a non-Omani, and certainly more than the minimum wage for an Omani employee. Once this is done, make it easier to hire foreign workers to ensure businesses that need specialised labour from overseas can get them.

Stimulate the SME private sector.
Encourage SMEs that actually do something by allowing home run businesses below 50k per year with minimal regulation beyond basic HSE & public health related issues. Make it easy to register and run a business by cutting most of the red tape required by the Municipalities and Ministries. Get lots of low cost Small Claims courts established for matters below 5k. Start to break up the monopolies of the Zubairs, Bahwans, Kimjis, et al.

Bring in Compulsory pseudo-military service.
Start giving all these unemployed youth a job for 18 months between high school and University that brings discipline and on the job training in life skills. Get them building infrastructure projects, helping in orphanages, picking up trash, building housing for the poor, ... anything to get them off their fat asses. Do not allow unemployment benefit to be paid unless they have done this. And make sure any unemployment benefit is time limited - it should be temporary (no more than 6 months).

Widen the tax base.
Bring in a Value Added Tax (not just a sales tax). Compensate lower income earners by increasing the minimum wage. Increase the tax on imports (currently just 5%) to the maximum extent the World Trade Organisation allows and apply to anything that could be made/grown in Oman.

Reduce population growth
The place can't sustain 3rd world birth rates combined with the modern medical care that ensures they survive. Have a child allowance for 1 or 2 kids per male, that then is taken away at 3 or more. Make education free for the first 2, then charge after that (again, by reducing Government handouts).

Reduce tribalism.
Yes, subsidise weddings (as they do in the UAE), but double the subsidy if the couple are from different tribes. Conversely, if the couple are first cousins, there should be no subsidy. There is no reason we should be encouraging further in-breeding.

OK. That's it for now.

Postscript:
Her Majesty the Queen of the Netherlands is coming to visit (a 'personal' visit at that) after all. It seems the Queen was worried that cancelling would give people the mistaken impression that she was siding with the protesters...

The Question of Succession

Following the recent 40 year celebration of the amazing Omani Renaissance under the wise rule of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos, there were a few nice articles (here (FT) and here (MEED), for example) in the external media about the issue of Oman's succession.

His Majesty is still relatively healthy, having recovered from a long spell of illness a couple of years ago (most likely as a complication of his diabetes). But he is now in his 70s, and unfortunately will not be with us forever. Hence the question of who will succeed him as ruler of Oman. This is not something that is considered a topic for the Omani media.

According to Article 5 of Oman’s basic law, the successor must be a male descendant of Turki bin Said, Sultan from 1871-88.

HH Sayyid Turki bin Said. He successfully deposed the pretender Immam Al Qais in 1870 to establish the Al Said line of rulers of Oman.


This requirement has, by now, enabled a pretty broad field of potential rulers. So in 1996, the heirless Sultan Qaboos updated the constitution stating the royal Al Busaidy family should unanimously choose a successor within 48 hrs. If they don't, the Army assumes command and opens a safe containing a letter with his Majesty's nominated 2 potential successors. Apparently there are two such safes, one in Muscat and the other in Salalah (just to be sure no switcheroos take place). This was a big improvement on the previous set-up, where by default the army would naturally have taken control immediately.

"When I die, my family will meet. If they cannot agree on a candidate, the Defense Council will decide, based on a name or names submitted by the previous sultan. I have already written down two names in descending order, and put them in sealed envelopes in two different regions."

from Judith Miller, "Creating Modern Oman: An Interview with Sultan Qabus," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 3 (May/June 1997), p. 17. [taken from secondary sources]

As the Sultan has no brothers (just 3 sisters) the inside track follows the principal of primogeniture. The accepted front runners for the succession are therefore the sons of Qaboos' uncle Prince Tariq bin Taimur Al-Said (and ex-Prime Minister of Oman, who died in 1980). Namely Asa’ad, 56, Shihab, 55, and Haitham, 54.

So who are these potential candidates? There is not a lot of info available.

HH Sayyid Asa'ad bin Tariq Al Said (on right). Asa’ad is the Sultan’s personal representative. And also perhaps not a big fan of the gym.


HH Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq Al Said (second from left), a personal adviser to HM, and who was head of the Oman Royal Navy until 2004. The best looking of the 3, and a military man too. The favourite, IMHO.


HH Sayyid Haitham bin Tariq Al Said (on right), currently Minister of Heritage and Culture. He is also the 50% owner of Cyclone LLC, the company infamously responsible for the failed Blue City development. This perhaps questions his judgement and business skills.


The 'dark horse' in the potential succession would be His Majesty's current 'number 1' HH Sayyid Fahd Bin Mahmood al-Said, 66, Deputy Prime Minister and the one you always see in the papers filling in for HM at events too numerous to mention.

HH Sayyid Fahd Bin Mahmood al-Said, Deputy Prime Minister of Oman.

Given his clear involvement in the day to day running of the Government, and his age, I would imagine HH Fahd would be better as someone HM could rely on being the new 'number 1' to whoever succeeds as Sultan. But he is also technically qualified to become Sultan too.

Fahd is certainly the only potential familial successor to have any real experience of senior governmental administration and diplomacy, as HM has retained most significant Government positions for himself, ie HM is also Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Defense minister, Finance minister, and Chairman of the Central Bank.

A 2004 article by Mark Katz in the Middle East Review of International Affairs summarises many of the issues perceived by external intellectuals about the question of succession.

I personally hope HM consciously retreats from the increasing isolation he seems to have experienced from 'ordinary Omanis', a trend exacerbated by his illness and encouraged by his coterie of advisors, senior Ministers and the powerful oligarchs. The brilliant and daring young Turks who helped him come to power, and fought alongside him on the battlefields on Dhofar are now old, privileged and entrenched. He would do well to reconnect with their modern equivalents, in the Universities and, dare I say it, online.

In addition, he should continue, and accelerate, to build the structures he has begun that can potentially move Oman towards a more stable Constitutional Monarchy from its current status of Absolute Monarchy; whereby accountability for initiating and finalising legislation is vested in a significantly more empowered and elected Majlis, backed up by a truly professional civil service. Unfortunately the powerful people around HM, those who would have to execute such a plan, are best served by the continuation of the present system of concentration of power, while they enrich themselves and their heirs within the current structure. This means any progress in this regard is more likely to stall than accelerate. The sclerotic press establishment maintain the status quo at every opportunity.

So, a belated happy 40 yr Anniversary Oman. The past 4 decades have seen the country arise spectacularly from a long poverty of material and intellectual privation. HM has laid for Oman the firmest of foundations using the revenue from oil. Stable, civilised, and tolerant. Plus a frankly brilliant foreign policy which has created the GCC, and steered for Oman a path between the imperial powers of the UK and USA vs Iran and Saudi. HM is one smart diplomat and soldier.

But, as the oil and gas revenue ceases to keep up with population growth, and the old allies of America and the UK suffer from their own poverty and hence reduce their strategic largesses, Oman needs to look to how this nation can be sustained over the next 4 decades.


I would also direct interested readers to an excellent thesis submitted in May 2010 analysing "OMAN’S FOREIGN POLICY BETWEEN 1970-2008" by EMİN AKSEKİ of the north Cypriot MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY.

Its not a topic that gets a lot of local or global academic attention, and young Emin has done a pretty darned good job.