The Dragon departs Oman?

Well dearest Readers,

I mentioned in an earlier post that this summer/Ramadan was a time of reflection.

Opportunities abound in this recovering fiscally pumped-up global economy. A key part of this summer's extended sojourn, far away from the radiating oppressive heat of the jebels, was to sample and contractually confirm the great treasures and pleasures that were placed on offer elsewhere for the rental of the Dragon's talents.

And the results are... well..."good news / bad news".




Good News
The Dragon will keep up the posts on Oman, perhaps with a slighty lower frequency.

Bad News
The treasure on offer was way too good to resist. Especially with the added attractions of:
(1) an excellent cave in the real world*, one I can actually own freehold;
(2) shockingly reasonable prices for champagne and pork products;
(3) a city where you can drink outside in a gorgeous bar watching sophisticated people passing by, none of whom mind that you're consuming alcohol and smoking during Ramadan...
(4) living in a country with real laws and an independent judiciary, away from the ever present worry of a knock on the door by the ROP because I'd been identified by the Zedjali clan, agents of De Verre, the many wastafarians I've pissed off, some religious wacko, Mohana, OMRAAN, etc, etc, etc.

Yep. The magic had worn off Oman, I have to admit.

From a place of wonder, populated by open and generous people, Oman had slowly emerged as a place that seemed increasingly dominated by the things I disliked (and lacking the things I do like):
- Unemployed ignorant young Omanis who think the world owes them a living, and increasingly turning to petty crime, violence, yobbism, and class A drugs.
- Wonderful, intelligent and talented young Omani women cowed into wearing Saudi-Wahibi rent-a-tents, unable to be in public, and acting like they are on parole with no prospects of what I would consider a free and fulfilling life.
- A state bureaucracy dominated by rent-taking self serving incompetents in service to the oligarchs.
- A conspiracy between civil servants and populace to provide succor rather than excellence, especially in the critical areas of education, employment and health.
- A pathetic media that keeps finding new lows when it comes to not reporting on the increasingly visceral problems of hard working, yet tremendously indebted, law abiding citizens.

And all supported by an underclass of semi-enslaved Indian, Sri Lankan, Afghani, Filipino, Indonesian, and Pakistani workers. Most of whom, in my experience, were far happier, polite, civil and accepting of their circumstance than they should be.


So, Ms Dragon and myself have packed up, kissed our many friends goodbye, and left Oman for greener pastures on the glorious wings of one-way business class.

As so many mouth-breathing retarded haters on this blog (and others) have commented - "you can go somewhere else". Well, guess what, we have. You may be interested to learn we've gone to a place for more money, not less (even including taxes), and with a lower cost of living too. LMAO.

You see, we were only ever here because we liked being here.



We stopped liking it.

To my many Omani and Expat friends, most of whom didn't - and still don't - know of my alter ego; We miss you very, very much.

To my 'net friends and many ananymous sources of 'goings on' - don't worry: the internet is still there and as long as you keep emailing me, and I keep posting, what does it matter that I'm not domiciled in Muscat? In fact, being now safely out of the reach of those that might do me injustice is another dose of good news.

I am now no longer bound by the draconian laws of Oman when it comes to what I want to post on Muscat Confidential. The laws of my new cave are,.... very, very liberal indeed.

So, watch this space. I still love the potential of the country and want to keep an eye on things. And I intend to give you news you don't get anywhere else.

So hello, and goodbye. Some shocking stories in the works. Send me an email if I get blocked - where I am I won't notice.

The Dragon


*The Real World...
What do I mean by "The Real World"? Well, a place where the law is more independent and is not as controlled by vague laws and arbitrary arrest and charges. Where your right to voice an opinion is free. Where you have the right to vote, to assemble, to unionise, to form political parties, to have a say on your taxation. Where one can surf the net without filters, and use Skype and Blackberry for f*&ks' sake.


PPS: So who is the Dragon?
Ahhh, I remain wary of the long arm of a few I have annoyed here at Muscat Confidential. I intend to remain anon for now. My exit may at least eliminate a few suspects who remain!

For the good people, and there are many, I may leave a clue or two in future... Stay tuned.

UD

More Insanity in UAE: Expat couple beaten up by Emirati in IKEA

A reader forwarded me the following great link commenting about the case of 3 Emirati brothers who beat the crap out of an Expat couple in the Dubai IKEA cafeteria, for, er, sitting at their table.

The original story in the National is here.

His final 2 paragraphs sum it up pretty beautifully.

Wall St. WTF

...
Obviously an attack on a pregnant woman by three Emirati men in the middle of an IKEA cafeteria is horrific in its’ own right and pretty hard to understand. What’s more, Dubai is completely dependent on foreigners to do most of the work, to move there, buy apartments and set up businesses in order to dig Dubai out of its deep dark hole. You would think that the authorities would deal harshly with the culprits. Besmirching the reputation of Dubai as a tolerant multicultural hub poses an existential threat to Dubai itself. Alas, it is not so. The assault occurred in June of 2009, the first hearing was in August 2010. All three assailants are free men in a city where hundreds are in prison for bounced checks. Two of them failed to even show up for the hearing and were not even required to provide an explanation. It seems also that this is a civil case. Apparently if you are Emirati beating the hell out of a non-Emirati man and his pregnant non-Emirati wife is not a crime.

It’s their country, they can do what they want, but if you ask me this is no way to run a country completely dependent on its reputation among foreigners. As sad as the article itself is the comment at the bottom from an Emirati: “they should have moved.” They probably will, and not to the next table but rather to the next country and if enough foreigners decide to follow them the creditors will beat the hell out of Dubai.

Maybe the 3 nut-case Emiratis can claim they were under the influence of the Swedish meatballs. It is, afterall, the sort of defense that has been successfully used before in the UAE.

Photo: The mad Sheikh Issa bin Zayed al Nahyan torturing a grain supplier: obviously only because of his medication.

As ever, UAE - Best Avoided

British? Been abroad for a while? No more free NHS treatment for you then!

A public service announcement for expat Brits.

A reader tipped me off to this little snippet that may apply to some of the readers of Muscat Confidential [thx NB].

If you have been living overseas for more than 5 years (and you are not Military, Diplomatic, or a missionary) you and your family are not entitled to the UK's (in)famous free NHS treatment, unless it's an accident and you are being treated in an A&E sense.

Photo: This is the view you may have of the 'free' NHS if you live overseas! ripped from UKWiredNews.com

Really. You can check out all the rules here. Its all very, very complicated.

It's because those free treatment rights are not a function of you being a UK citizen, but paying National Insurance or being permanently resident. So no taxation means no free ride on the NHS.

It can also be a problem for anyone who's been away for more than 3 months. So if you're a pensioner who has a nice pad at the Wave to enjoy the winter months in Oman, watch out!

In fact, the site recommends such emigre Brits get medical insurance for if they return to the UK on holiday.

You've been warned!

No more Virtual Private Networks in Oman? TSA floats VPN ban for individuals. Meanwhile, Blue City plans the sell out...

It had to happen.

Tired of not being able to use (or at least recharge) skype? Want to watch streamed TV from the USA? Like the idea of surfing the net anon from Newark instead of Ruwi with a visible Internet address?

In the past, the answer was a VPN.

Virtual Private Network. Cheap ones were quickly blocked, but several commercial ones specifically advertised the ability to defeat Oman's filters.

VPN. A quirk of the internet protocol that allowed you to to establish an encrypted "pipe" to the servers of the civilised world (USA, Denmark, UK, Canada...) free of Omantel internet censors, snoops, etc. Want to go to Big Tits Unlimited?

In Oman a VPN was essential if the thumbnails of Google were too limiting.


This is just a Ramadan sensitive example. Try googling "censored big tits" yourself!


Well, no more, according to the Omani Telecom Authority [TSA], via Global Voices Online's Mohammed Al Modawwin

Oman: VPN Ban Soon
posted by Mohammed Al Modawwin on Sep 03, 2010

categories: Feature, Oman, law, regulation
In the latest episode of internet censorship in Oman, the Telecom Regulation Authority of Oman has announced its plans to completely ban the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and would require companies to acquire the TRA's permission before they can use them. The new regulation has not been passed yet and has been posted by the TRA online for public consultation.

The use of VPN by consumers has increased over the years as it is the only way for internet users in Oman to use VoIP services - which have been banned in Oman for a number of years now. Some VPN protocols such as PPTP are already completely blocked in Oman and providers of other VPN solutions are increasingly discovered by the ISP and are blocked on individual basis.

The use of VPN in the past has been a gray area in the country as the law does not permit the any unauthorized use of encryption, but the new draft regulations will explicitly make the use of VPN officially illegal for the private use of individuals.

Companies on the other hand will be able to use VPN upon completing a special form to be adopted by the TRA and acquiring its approval. Upon submitting the VPN use form the company would have to provide the following details:

Details of the user of the VPN. (Not clear if they are asking for details of individual users, or the company).
Explanation of the purpose for which the VPN will be used.
Details of the IP address of the source and destination of the communication.
Article 3 of the regulation specifies that the TRA may reject any application without providing reasons for its rejection.

The regulations are now up for public consultation, but it is unlikely for this to result in a change in the core ban specified in it as as the prohibition of VPN is in accordance with Oman's general policy against the use of encryption and the majority of the uses of VPN by private users in Oman are uses which are banned anyway by other regulations such as VoIP or merely avoiding the censorship of ISPs.

Well, quite.

OmanHel has been blocking Skype for years, because they, ah, don't like losing millions of dollars in international phone calls.

They have also been blocking "http://www.superbigtits.com" for ages too, because, ummm, obviously, no one in Oman is allowed to look at digital images of really big mammary glands from Sp. Homo Sapiens, etc etc etc.

All this was easily avoidable. If you had the IT skills (or access to same) of a nintendo trained 11 years old. I've posted on this before.

But all this big titted cheap phone call encrypted enabling glory is now to be illegal.

And even worse, very effectively blocked by the filters [One of the reasons for my recent quiescence dear readers].

Great. You will soon be breaking the law if you surf in a way that the Omani authorities can't read along side you.

And, to think, we laughed at UAE banning text messages from Blackberries. LOL... WEEP.

So that's OK then.


Meanwhile, in other news,

Lavishly recompensed Blue City magnate & property development expert par excellence (and super-talented marketing talent spotter) Anees Al Zedjali has apparently come up with a cunning plan for his new UAE masters to repay some of the vast foreign debt (ie theirs):

Sell the fantastic land His Majesty graciously sold them (well, actually, mainly sold to HH Minister of Culture & Heritage, via Cyclone and BCC1) at a huge discount.

Wow. What a business genius.




At least according to someone who shuld know and is willing to talk to the press Suketu Sanghvi, senior manager at Essdar (Essdar, 35-percent owned by the ruler of Dubai Sh. Maktoum's investment company Dubai Holding, which bought Blue City's $655.5 million Class A debt via a tender offer earlier in June as part of investment in its Gulf-focused distressed debt fund.) :

...
"Transactions in the distressed and special situations space go through cycles in each country and as such volumes of such transactions may significantly rise in some parts of the world and may drop in other parts " Suketu Sanghvi, senior managing director of structuring and investments at Essdar told Reuters.

"...people who have good understanding of local and regional markets on legal and financial implications of enforcement, work outs, restructuring and refinancing can take some wise investment decisions in the space."

Essdar, which has an asset management and corporate finance advisory business, was presented with a restructuring plan by Blue City's borrower and the firm is in the process of reviewing the plan, Sanghvi said.

"We are in discussions with the note holders what to do with it (restructuring plan). The plan provides for the sale of a significant part of the land," he said.

An hour from Oman's capital Muscat, Blue City was touted as Oman's biggest real estate project but it stalled amid dismal sales and clashes between shareholders.

So, thats alright then.

Let's let the UAE build Oman's new Emerald city for 200,000 people. Maybe they at least will take the project seriously, having put their own borrowed cash into it...

Oman prosecutes Muscat Municipality Official for corruption - embezzled more than US$3 million. Plus: Is Oman Air fueled by ethanol?

OK. I'm back. Pretty busy, but lets start off with a great story in Times of Oman (yes, really). Finally the well known story of the Muscat Municipality Finance guy who was busted forging cheques to himself has hit the papers.




I find it still a bit strange that Omani custom and defamation law means its not allowed to publicly name people after they have been found guilty of a crime (or in this case, admitted it). "It would bring shame on the family". Well, maybe it should? Perhaps if people knew that their father would be scorned at the mosque on Friday they would be less inclined to defraud the people of US$3.35 million? Or of committing any crime?

Still, progress.

Oman firm on battling corruption
Times of Oman
FAHAD AL MUKRASHI
Tuesday, August 17, 2010

... recent development in the Muscat Municipality embezzlement case, which revealed that an official embezzled funds in the municipality through forgery.

The latest details of the case reveals that as per Internal Audit Unit of the Muscat Municipality discovered embezzled funds amounting to more than RO1,300,000.

...

The accused, aged 37 years, has been sentenced to 10 years imprisonment and a fine of up to three times of money he embezzled from the municipality.

This case has stressed the importance of internal control of public funds in government institutions.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Sports Affairs is conducting an internal investigation into one of its staff who took advantage of his position to bring to the Sultanate a number of Asian workers.

The employee took advantage of visas which were meant for participating teams in one of the tournament that was hosted by the Sultanate recently.

....

I think this is the tip of the iceberg. Internal Audit caught this guy because he was doing forgery and fraud. What is harder to catch are all the tender board shenanigans, side projects done for officials houses by big contractors on a project with the same Ministry, or the massive abuse of the imported labour visa power of the Ministry of Manpower.


Oman Air A330 Pilot taken off plane
Not published in the papers was the rumoured case last month of the Oman Air Senior A330 Pilot who was busted for being rat-arsed on duty at Muscat Airport. The Captain was I'm told taken off the Muscat to Columbo flight for being suspected of being drunk in charge of an aircraft. The good men of the ROP came and did a breath test - with the measured 'Ethyl Alcohol' result being off the scale - and (probably very unreliable) sources tell me he could hardly walk to get off the flight.


It is not true that Oman Air's famously awesome and complimentary beverage service includes the flight deck, people. Ignore those vicious rumours!

However, because the breathalyzer had not been calibrated properly [Duh], and is thus not usable as evidence, this happy flying imbiber responsible trained senior flight crew member will apparently get to walk scot-free as he was obviously not drunk at all if there is no evidence, which there wasn't. So that's alright then. In addition, on a famous flight deck forum Oman Air insider Obi Wan Kirk recently stated:

90% of expat pilots in Omanair are looking to move. The other 10% are either bonded on A330, very near retirement or bonded for Command upgrade. There are also a few still living in fairy land...

If you fly a lot I wouldn't recommend the PPrune site readers, as its contents, especially those that relate to Middle Eastern Airlines - Oman Air included - will scare the shit out of you. And as Oman's ATC system upgrade troubles continue to be unresolved, the words 'accident waiting to happen' come to mind. I always kiss the tarmac, just like the Pope.


Meanwhile, up and coming local Expat blogger and active Twitterer Mr Sythe, author of Muscat Mutterings (see the excellent post recently busting the infamous touchy/feelly/rapist taxi driver tendency in the Sultanate) published a short interview with Undercover Dragon yesterday.

I do like the growth of the English language bloggers we've seen in Oman over the past couple of years, both Expat and Omani (even if sometimes we loose a few good ones too). Mr Sythe is one of the good ones. Give him a taste, if you haven't already!


OK. Off to sort out payments of treasure after my leave. As foreshadowed in the interview, big news coming soon readers, promise.

Omani Training Institute NHI driven to half-year loss by failure of Ministry of Manpower to pay its bills or train Omanis

This is a sort of 'good news/bad news' story.

Recently His Highness Sayyid Tarik bin Shabib bin Taimur Al Said, Chairman of NHI - the National Hospitality Institute SAOG - released the company's 2010 first half year results.

You might recall my previous post on 1st May in praise of HH Tarik Al Said, after he publicly pointed out how useless the Ministry of Manpower were acting, with respect to their treatment of NHI, a private hospitality industry training institute.

Photo: NTI Chairman and Renaissance Director His Highness Tarik Al Said (from Renaissance website)

Back then HH Tarik Al Said was quoted in Muscat Daily as saying:

"NHI is...requesting the following solutions:

- [Omani Government to] pay NHI all outstanding debt immediately, for all work successfully completed;
- remove the conflict of interest [MoM also run Oman Tourism College, a competitor];
- change the chronic processes for trainee allocation and payment; and
- quantify and confirm the scale of the [training] opportunity."

You can still read his full statement from Q1 2010 Chairman's Report, detailing the specific problems NHI has had with the Government's Ministry of Manpower here, on the NHI website. Probably only an HH would be able to get away with such a forceful and frank public statement criticising the Government.


So, what's new? First the bad news.

NHI made a loss of 125,000 rials [US$320k] in the first half of 2010, on revenue of 286k RO, compared to a profit of 47,000 rials on revenues of 531k RO in the same period last year. Trainees sent from the Ministry of Manpower were also pitifully low, despite huge demand from employers. Remember, this is in an environment where most Omani hotels are staffed by non-Omanis, despite in many cases being owned by the Omani Government, and in a country with a massive (and growing) youth unemployment problem.

Hell, the whole argument underpinning Oman's move to mortgage its natural beauty by building massive 5 star integrated tourist developments was to provide employment to Omanis!

In the latest Q2 report, the NHI Chairman states (highlights are mine):

...

With this same agenda, in my capacity as Chairman, I have visited every concerned Ministry to outline the plight and status of our company. Without exception, I have been extended every courtesy and been given a fair hearing by their Excellencies the Ministers and the senior officials involved in the process of payment and trainee allocations. In all cases, I have been assured that nhi shall be given full support to secure urgent payment of all dues.

We have reconfirmed that the supply and demand ratio for meaningful Omani employment in the industry is far greater than full capacity of existing training facilities. We have been assured that every effort shall be made to make full and continuous capacity trainee allocation to nhi so long as nhi’s recognised standards are maintained and supply of trainees and demand of vacant jobs are sustained. As a result of meetings with decision makers, some changes to the process has been agreed, which if adhered to should reduce payment delays.

...

On payment, at the start of the year Rials 822 thousand of overdue debt [UD: owed by the Government] and unbilled income was outstanding, due to the approval processes for completed training. In Q1 this figure increased to Rials 845 thousand. In Q2, this figure reduced to Rials 780 thousand.

On trainee allocation, in the first half of the year 80 trainees have been allocated to nhi (37 in Q1 and 43 in Q2). This is well below demand from employers requisitioning training from nhi for 350 identified jobs [UD: and well below NHI's capacity of 500 trainees].

...

On supply and demand, using government data concerning the industry, it is clear that 2,600 new trainees need to be trained every year to meet the growth of the sector. While we are grateful for the assurances we have been given and we appreciate some progress todate, which will show in our 3rd quarter report, there is room for urgent further progress in getting nhi fully paid up to date and getting nhi training capacity filled. We shall follow up these matters with urgency with the concerned authorities and hope to report that all these matters are fully resolved by the end of this current 3rd quarter.

As the nation celebrates the 40th year of the glorious reign of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos, we can justly look back at the achievements of nhi and the contribution it has made to getting Omanis into meaningful jobs in the hospitality sector. Looking ahead, nhi must work closely with the authorities empowered to implement the nation’s Omanisation objectives to ensure that together we rise to the challenge so clearly laid out before us through His Majesty’s leadership.

So despite this huge demand from both hotels and youth, the useless high-performing civil servants at the Ministry of Manpower, nice and safe in their highly paid part-time Government desk jobs, could only send 80 trainees, even though NTI has capacity to train 500.

Ouch.

So, NHI's parent company Renaissance Services continues to have to support the NHI training institute with loans. Meanwhile the Omani Government, flush with cash after higher than budgeted oil prices, seems unable to pay its outstanding bills. They owe NHI almost US$2 million.

Unfortunately this tendency of the Omani Government to be exceptionally tardy in paying what it owes people is not unusual. Almost every businessman I know who deals with the Government is owed money by the Government, and it is always a problem getting them to pay in semi-reasonable time. In fact, Geological time seems to be how the clocks run in the Ministry invoicing departments. Basic invoices are often unpaid for more than a year or even two years. Doing business with and getting paid by the Government is a constant headache I hear everywhere.

This may be OK for the large and deep-pocketed oligarch's; the Bahwans, Zubairs, Zawawis, Khimjis, et al. These guys can easily finance their businesses at good rates, and often through having control of their own banks! But for small businesses, this poor payment policy can be a crippling problem, as it means these smaller outfits struggle to have enough cashflow to actually run their business. Small businesses, especially in their early years, are typically under-capitalised and dependent on just a few contracts.

Of course, SMEs are widely recognised - even by the Ministry of Silly Walks - as perhaps the only hope Oman has of generating a robust, less oil and gas dependent economy that actually employs Omanis. As the Government still dominates the economy, their choice to not pay their bills on time is a huge drag on the private sector, and effectively a deliberate protectionist behaviour in favour of the big corporations. It even forces SMEs to borrow working capital from the same banks owned by the Oligarchs and the Government!

And in this specific case, the Ministry of Manpower are also failing to get Omani trainees trained in perhaps the one industry that in the short-term could adsorb significant numbers of hard-working, enthusiastic, but perhaps poorly educated youth.

Is this becuase they are deliberately favoring their own Hospitality Training Institute The Oman Tourism College? Or they are simply too incompetent to address such a fundamental problem even after it has been identified, communicated, accepted, and implementable remedies identified? This from the very Ministry that is supposed to being increasing Omani employment in the Private Sector. What a joke.

I think we all know who could be added to the ranks of the unemployed rather than letting them continue to add to those without work through inaction. Perhaps the Minister could have a chat to the Undersecretary of Technical Training and Vocational Training about the performance of his department and his staff?


Oh, you're probably wondering what the good news was.

Well, if someone as influential and well connected as HH Tarik Al Said can't get paid what he is owed by the Ministry of Manpower, after both privately and publicly trying to sort it out, maybe Oman is truly becoming less dominated by Wasta...

Once again, Muscat Confidential has to congratulate HH Tariq Al Said for standing up to the problem.


PostScript: He would get even more compliments if he helped Renaissance hire more Omani within its vast catering and cleaning businesses though, maybe by paying more and offering terms and conditions that Omanis would find acceptable.

Muscat Confidential reaches 1000 Facebook fans! Plus, UAE and Saudi blackmail Blackberry: Let us read people's emails or else!

I was pleased, flattered, and somewhat amazed to see that the Facebook fan page for Muscat Confidential has already hit the 1000+ members total.

While I don't have anything to do with the page directly, I'd like to thank Mohammed Al-Tamami (Omani Social Media Consultant; Founder & CEO of his company Tamami Networks LLC) and his helpers for taking the initiative and hosting/administering the Muscat Confidential fan page. Not only has it encouraged readers and allowed them to more easily share MC with their friends, it also enabled people to keep in touch with the blog on the couple of times I was blocked by the infamous Omani telecom internet censorship filters...

And a big 'Thank You' to the fans of Muscat Confidential. You can probably see some of their avatars on the right of this post. It certainly helps me to blog knowing there are least a few people who mostly like what goes out. Oman, and especially Muscat, is a pretty small niche in the global scheme of things, online particularly. But the virtual community in Oman is growing fast, and has already made a change in the way the mainstream media act and are allowed to act.

I hope you keep following the blog. And more importantly, please feel free to send me emails [email: undercover (dot) dragon (at) gmail.com, by the way!] if you have a story idea or come across something you thing others should be aware of. I usually reply to most emails when I get time. And as we are not Wikileaks, I can't promise to print everything...

Meanwhile,

UAE and Saudi attempt to force RIM to provide access to their Blackberry users' encrypted emails

The UAE has basically confirmed that because blackberry encrypt their emails, they will no longer allow the service to be supported within the UAE (same for Saudi). Yes, big brother is watching. Or not, I guess, if you had a blackberry.

While the UAE and Saudi are playing the 'security card', this seems to me to be pretty bogus. Sophisticated nasty terrorist organisations have access to military grade email encryption for years, which started more than a decade ago with a programme called PGP (Pretty Good Privacy). The real crazies don't even have mobiles or use email, but use physical couriers and old fashioned 'walks in the park', such is their fear of the omnipresent American NSA and it's talents (thank goodness).

Perhaps more likely is that the Saudi and UAE authorities are trying to control the petty 'crime' of social networking and singles flirting. More interesting will be the response of both RIM and the UAE/Saudi public to their 'request'.

DUBAI/RIYADH (Reuters) - More than a million BlackBerry users may have key services in Saudi Arabia and the UAE cut off after authorities stepped up demands on smartphone maker Research In Motion for access to encrypted messages sent over the device.

BlackBerry's Messenger application has spread rapidly in the Gulf Arab region but because the data is encrypted and sent to offshore servers, it cannot be tracked locally.

"Certain BlackBerry services allow users to act without any legal accountability, causing judicial, social and national security concerns," the United Arab Emirates' Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) said in a statement.

The UAE said it would suspend BlackBerry Messenger, email and Web browser services from October 11 until a fix was found, while industry sources said Saudi Arabia had ordered local telecom companies to freeze Messenger this month.

Sunday's moves cap wrangling with regulators over the issue, which first surfaced in 2007.


India raised similar security concerns last week, and Bahrain in April warned against using BlackBerry Messenger to distribute local news. As far back as 2007, France cautioned officials about using the services.

Indian security officials were concerned that BlackBerry's encrypted data could be used to coordinate acts against the state. They have clamped down on mobile phone operators in the wake of 2008 attacks that killed 166 people in Mumbai.

The UAE, home to Gulf financial hub Dubai, said it would halt BlackBerry services until an "acceptable solution" was developed and applied.

Users of the device said that could mean disruptions for companies and individuals who rely on the services, including almost 700,000 in Saudi Arabia and some 500,000 in the UAE.

"It's a final decision but we are continuing discussions with them," Mohammed Al Ghanem, director general of the UAE's TRA, told Reuters.

...

I personally don't mind the NSA knowing everything I email, and have operated on that basis for decades too. But somehow I don't trust the Saudi and UAE chaps as much. These are the people who lied to the UAE users of Blackberry's last year when they tried to slip their own secret spywear onto the devices.

...
Just over a year ago, BlackBerry maker Research in Motion criticized a directive by the UAE's state-owned mobile operator Etisalat that told the company's more than 145,000 BlackBerry users to install software described as an "upgrade . . . required for service enhancements." RIM said tests showed that the update was actually spy software that could allow outsiders to access private information on the phones. It strongly distanced itself from Etisalat's decision and provided instructions for users to remove the software.

No word yet from Omani Authorities if they will join the ban.

The paranoid may find this article on hi-tech surveillance interesting...

Saudi teens - and anyone else - who want to communicate securely despite snooping UAE policemen should perhaps check out PGP Mobile. It lets you install top level encryption on your smart phone:

How does PGP Mobile protect email and email attachments?

Email is the essential business tool that enables rapid exchange of business critical information and when unsecured, it provides a significant threat to potential loss or theft of the contents. Sending an email is like sending a postcard through the mail. It’s sent in clear text which makes it easy for anyone with simple tools to read an email while it’s in transit, which can be especially dangerous if unauthorized parties are using tools to look for specific keywords or content (like new product code words or social security numbers).

PGP Mobile 9.10 provides email and email attachment encryption for smartphones running Windows Mobile 6.0 or 6.1 Professional Edition. This policy-based email encryption occurs automatically with few changes to the user experience. Encryption happens on the smartphone itself (vs. at a gateway) so it provides powerful protection by enabling true end-to-end encryption. It leverages PGP Universal™ Server for deployment, management, and consistently applied email policies while integrating into the existing enterprise infrastructure.

Like I said, perhaps best to just assume someone is listening. And live in a country with a strong constitution...

I'd like to add that Oman's Internal Security Service [ISS] do an outstanding job. Perhaps the reason the Omanis haven't followed their neighbours' threat against Blackberries is that they aren't as lazy as their UAE colleagues and already have a handle on things...

More tales of imprisonment and Catch 22 in Dubai

Readers,

Another cautionary tale of the draconian laws in Dubai and the obscene powers available to the banks in the UAE to imprison expats, from the BBC online. [TWI - thx for the link!]

The Catch-22 aspects of the UAE's immature laws with regard to debt and the absence of a personal bankrupcy law are scary indeed. More on that to come soon.



Dragon's advice on the UAE remains, as before, "Best Avoided"

BBC News

Homeless in Dubai

18 July 2010 Last updated at 03:45 ET Help
Nicholas Warner is British and sleeping on the street in Dubai. He got into a dispute with his bank, Emirates NBD, initially over whether his credit card repayments had been made.

He went on holiday at Christmas and the bank says that by leaving the country without its permission while they were in a dispute, he got reclassified as a so-called "debt skipper" - one of the many expats who leave Dubai in a hurry with large debts, never to return.

When he arrived back at Dubai airport, he was arrested. His passport was seized by police on the authority of the bank.

Although he was released and tried to negotiate with the bank he got into further difficulties.

He had been working as a strategy adviser for an alternative medicine company, but his employer decided it was safer to let him go while he sorted everything out.

Emirates NBD is refusing to let his passport be released until the debts are paid. Nicholas has no way of paying them without a job. And he cannot get a job without being able to show he's in the country legally. For that, he needs his passport.

Read more:
Destitute in Dubai: One man's story

PS: The Dragon is still on leave, like everyone else. Expect delays and occasional champagne-induced poor typography...

Lazy Dragon

The Dragon is on leave.

Football Politics: Netherlands v Spain

The World Cup: AP Photo/Ibrahim Usta

The big game is about to start. I'm predicting a Netherlands victory, but only because I have to pick someone, and I tend to think the underdog has an advantage in this pressure setting - they have less to lose.

While we wait for the game to start, here's a light-hearted analysis from STRATFOR:

The Geopolitics of 2010 World Cup Countries

We hope you have enjoyed our geopolitical coverage of World Cup countries. As we approach the final matches that will determine the best soccer playing country in the world, here are the two finalists: Spain and The Netherlands.


Spain
Spain’s win over Germany in the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup was doubly satisfying to many. Not only did Spain reach the finals of the most prestigious sporting competition in the world, but it gave a boost of confidence to the beleaguered Mediterranean region. Spain is one of the headliners of what is known as the "Club Med," a group of Mediterranean countries facing a severe economic crisis due to high budget deficits and growing government debt. The year 2010 has been harsh for the Club, with Greece facing a severe sovereign debt crisis that has threatened the financial stability of Europe as a whole, and then with Portugal, Spain and Italy identified as the next dominoes to fall.

Spain, Portugal and Italy have nowhere near the poor economic fundamentals of Greece, but their sheer proximity and association with southern European economies has made them vulnerable. The rest of the European Union, led by Germany, therefore has imposed harsh budget austerity measures on all four countries. The measures cut deep into the social fabric of each, with likely resistance by their citizens to come into sharp focus for the rest of the year in the form of strikes, protests, a high degree of political instability and potentially violence.

On the football pitch the Mediterranean countries have had little success in the World Cup. Greece and Italy made ceremonial exits early on, while Portugal lost in the second round. But Spain now has not only the chance for the glory of being crowned champion, but also to do it by beating another northern European country (the Netherlands) after dismantling Germany in the semi-final. The end result may not help Spain overcome its economic crisis, but the satisfaction of knowing that Germany and the Netherlands were bested on the football pitch would allow the Spanish a rare celebration.


The Netherlands
The Netherlands is flat - very flat. It also is in the unenviable position of being nestled between several of Europe's most powerful countries. The combination of its geography (flatness) and political geography (being in close proximity to global power centers) has meant that the Netherlands has been easily invaded and conquered many times by powerful neighbors. The Dutch have therefore learned to make their country indispensable to their neighbors as an independent nation rather than as an occupied one. To achieve this they have built a transportation and business infrastructure, which they excel at managing, that is interconnected to their neighbors and essential to wider European trade.

Geopolitics presents the Netherlands with two broad and related strategies to pursue: being a proactive balancer and being a tough pragmatist. Maintaining the alliance structure that ensures Dutch independence is a delicate balancing act, but when they are confronted with outside threats, the Dutch must be pragmatic. Within alliance structures such as NATO and the European Union, the Dutch try to make sure that everyone’s interests are aligned and moving in the same direction.

It’s no different when it comes to football. With a population of only 17 million people, the Dutch have had to become balancers and pragmatists in football in order to compete with competition from larger leagues next door. The Dutch play a style of football, which they have dubbed "Total Football," that emphasizes tactical precision and physical ability by forcing every player to be able to play any position on the pitch. It is a style that looks to align and move the team in the same direction as a coherent unit, often at a frantic pace that exhausts the competition. The Dutch players are therefore known for their crisp passing, physical prowess and supreme technique, attributes that have helped the Netherlands remain globally competitive despite its size and lack of top flight league.

New book about Zanzibar's Princess Salme and another business idea

It struck me that there is a growing marketing opportunity in Oman to cater for "Halal Holidays" amongst an increasingly affluent regional and even global Muslim community, looking at the comments section in this piece from Abu Dhabi newspaper The National.

As a Muslim couple, our first holiday to Europe last year could have been a lot more pleasant and enjoyable had it not been for the lack of some very basic services like water, prayer facilities and halal eateries.
...
The fun of shopping and visiting too was hugely taken out of our visit in our frantic searches for a mosque or prayer room wherever we went; our solution was shortening our visits and restricting them to areas around a prayer facility; a boring proposition for visitors.
A famous shopping center in Manchester had one very tiny prayer room for all religions and both sexes; I dared not enter! My unlucky husband whereas had to pray with an unknown female next to him and a picture of Virgin Mary (may Allah be pleased with her) behind him!
And of course from omnivores, we turned to herbivores all throughout out visit. Even being a herbivore was tough enough as we searched for eateries that did not serve pork and alcohol.
All in all, we still managed to enjoy the visit as much as we could, meeting some very wonderful people and carrying back many treasured moments.
Nevertheless, I eagerly look forward to my next visit to Europe but I truly hope that it would be without a large cup sticking out of my handbag!

The segment also highlights the benefits of the more interactive approach to news that is developing world-wide. Its hard to comment back to a print article!

Fits in with the apparent problem that there is no Government Standard here applied to the use of the term 'Halal'. Still, consumer protectionism IS in its infancy here, after all.

But as well as attracting the 'sun, sand and sangria' western tourists, I do think there is a big market for Muslim compliant luxury holidays. A hint for Blue City?


New Biography of Zanzibar's Princess Salme gets good reviews
Interesting review of a new biography called "The Sultan's Shadow" in Salon.

"The Sultan's Shadow:" The runaway princess of Zanzibar
The story of a royal rebel and the Arab slave trade makes for popular history at its best in "The Sultan's Shadow"

When the famous British explorer Richard Francis Burton sailed into the harbor of Zanzibar in 1856, he was intoxicated by the way "earth, sea and sky, all seemed wrapped in a soft and sensuous repose." Clove-scented, fringed by palms and sapphire waters, this large island off the coast of East Africa was and is famous for its beauty; in the West, its very name conjures the romance of far horizons and undreamed-of adventures.

Closer up, Burton and his traveling companion, Hanning Speke, found a motley crush of nautical traffic floating in what Christiane Bird, author of "The Sultan's Shadow: One Family's Rule at the Crossroads of East and West," describes as a "a thick, sloshing bath of filth" studded with human corpses. The bodies were the detritus of the East African slave trade, tossed overboard so that slave merchants wouldn't have to pay a per-head fee for their cargo after docking. "The Sultan's Shadow" is in part a history of that deadly trade, which was largely run by Arabs, and in part the story of the royal family that presided over Zanzibar as the island rose to power and prosperity, and then fell before European colonialism in the 19th century.
...

I think its fair to say Oman has not yet generally come to terms with its part in the regional and global Slave trade, especially in Zanzibar, with nothing about this taught to Omani students here, and most Omani commentators I've seen on the forums in almost violent and vitriolic denial. That Oman was only the second to last country in the world to outlaw slavery (when HM took over in '72); or that Zanzibar, long part of Oman's East African empire, was a key slaving hub for decades; or indeed that the previous Sultan owned Slaves himself in the late 60's, are facts usually ignored.

See a related BBC article on Zanzibar's slave trade, and the atrocities that occured during the revolution in 1964 too.

UPDATE: I'd encourage interested readers (and ever ignorant OMR) to read Wikipedia's Slavery entry. This is a huge topic that has been going since history began, and Oman's part in the slave trades, both "Islamic/Arab" and the more commonly associated relatively modern "Euro/Americas" trade - even via their control of Zanzibar - is peripheral and even then mainly as middlemen businessmen. But Oman's role was there. Oman (amongst dozens of other countries) allowed slavery and considered it a legitimate business for considerable time, and the issue leads into the much bigger question of what constitutes human rights. This would be an excellent addition to the Omani curriculum at high school level, IMHO, to encourage debate and consideration of these issues. The absence of Islamic or Arab abolitionists in the record is a vexing issue, however.

The review continued:

...
Arab trading in African slaves evolved out of ancient African tribal customs used to pay off personal debts and to profit from prisoners of war. "It began a millennium before the West's," Bird writes of the practice, "and continued for more than a century after." But it was really only after the international market for ivory and spices took off that the East African slave trade succeeded in devastating Central and East Africa. Many more slaves were needed to run plantations and transport tusks, so slavers began to provoke tribal wars (to generate prisoners). Eventually they simply raided and razed entire villages, driving their captives so mercilessly to market that most of them died before reaching it.

Bird found Salme's autobiography evocative but frustratingly circumspect -- not to mention blinkered. Passages of "Memoirs of an Arabian Princess" defend "Oriental" slavery against the attacks of Western abolitionists, arguing that, as practiced by her own people, the institution was not only more benevolent than its American counterpart, but also kinder than capitalism's treatment of its underclass.
...

Wonder if Borders will stock it?


Photo: Monument to the slave trade, Stone Town Zanzibar [from Learnmc.org]

Yep, that's it for the year! And Africa [Ghana] beat USA ...

I must say, local blogger and highly recompensed fly-boy Jet Driver called it right on his latest post: That's it this year in Oman folks, especially General-Government-achievement-wise.

The summer is here.

It's now officially Fcuking hot and humid for the next 3 months. As a result, everybody who can, basically goes on leave. Overseas. (I leave the cool temperate beauty of Salalah and its monsoon [aka the Khareef] to the Saudi', Dhofaris, and middle-class Batinah-coast Omanis.)

Along with the heat, mid August brings Ramadan. Great if you are Muslim and need to atone your sins. But also a time that along with the holy month finds all Omani bars, alcohol bulk stores, and decent restaurants closed for a month, even if you're not a Muslim. [Exceptions: Brave tourists (or rich residents) within reach of a 5 star hotel room mini-bar, or those with privileged access to an ROP or Omani Military bar which (naturally) remains open].

And after that, come the vast public week-long Eid holidays (parts one and two), plus National Day holidays, and then we are all just cruising down to pagan holidays and the New Year trying to spend our MONE approved Budgets.

And, that's it for 2010.

Omani public sector productivity has either been attained already, or that's all she wrote til January. The Private sector will struggle on, but even for them it's mainly a survival game, whipping the contractors to deliver..

I must confess: Undercover Dragon and Ms Dragon will be off too. To a nameless southern European destination (albeit via Switzerland) where the champagne and canapes flow, and the agreeable locals gladly accept visa/mastercard, topless sunbathing, ridiculous gaudy (branded) attire and large yachts, in equal abandon.

So, good luck and sympathy to anyone staying behind (such as stalwart expat blogger just back from vacation Muscat Mutterer).


I'm off in a couple of days, accompanied (naturally) by Ms. Dragon and her incredibly voluminous luggage, but I will try to keep up, blog-post-wise.

Re-entry to our gorgeous jewel of a Sultanate (if my employers are as generous as they promise wrt offers of increased treasure) will be in late August inshallah.

Summer in Oman is the time when all sensible Expatriates assess their opportunities to take the advice occasionally offered by so many ignorant inbred talentless never-worked-a-day-in-my-life Omani 20-something wannabes to 'leave if you don't like it here'...


Well, ... maybe we will. Let's see the offers. Abu Dhabi and Qatar are throwing some serious cash on the table of late.

Thankfully I have several 1st world passports, education, and a CV that enables me to move. My heart would always be left with the hard working Omani underclass: Indonesian maids*, Bangladeshi and Afghani laborers, and Filipino and Indian workers that don't have that easy option. And let's not forget the domestic underclass and still silent majority of non-wasta, hard-working, Omani working class and lower middle class, providing for their huge, extended, unemployed/under-employed families and (generally), up to their eyeballs in debt.

(* Especially the ones you see in the malls on a Friday afternoon: dragged around by their employers on what should be a day off, shepherding 7 or 8 screaming and spoiled children, and looking so desperately sad and depressingly empty in their body language and downward glances.)


Meanwhile:

Blue City
Everyone (who cares) is awaiting the Omani Supreme Court decision on Blue City's project ownership and (more importantly) control, due in the next few days. Watch this space.


Nutcases
The Israelis have not yet bombed Iran - thankfully. Iran's leadership (and Saudi) meanwhile keep trying to encourage them to do so. Hopefully they will listen to America (and everyone else) and keep their rattling sabres in the scabbard.


Who doesn't like a train?
It seems someone in Oman likes trains, and a whole lot. Laying tracks for trains may not make economic sense, but, after all, at least we can still have them built by Indian coolies, just like the Americans did 200 years ago (although their exploited coolies were Chinese, not Indian, and it was all paid for by private investors). Check out the proposed train route map on Muscat Mutterings. Can anyone explain the rationale for this?


BG Group Abu Butabul exit and GCC Gas
Speaking of uneconomic, my people have finished crushing the numbers on BG's recent exit from 8 TCF of gas in Block 60.

It seems while BG Group apparently could just about make a buck from the Abu Butabul gas field, with a gas price of around $2.25 per Mscf, their successes in Brazil and Australia mean they had better things to risk their money on. So they walked.

My in-the-know-technical people infer that - contrary to my rant earlier - actually BG's exit makes it even better for BP in block 61 with their even bigger Khazzan/Makarem fields, as the Government now has few other options, medium term gagging-for-gas as it seems to be.

Muscat Confidential continues to call for a true open-trade pan-GCC gas network as the only sensible option for the good of all - gas customers (Omani, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain) and gas suppliers (Qatar, Sausi, UAE, Kuwait, Oman...).

For god's sake guys, a real market price for spot gas, with volume combined with liquidity, would have so many benefits for all of you!
- if you have gas, you can price it and sell it (if you want to)
- if you need gas you can buy it (if you want too)
- if you subsidise power (as you all do...) you can price that subsidy.
- if you have influential gas buyers (like Oman Methanol) you can demonstrate what the gas you are giving them is actually worth
- if you have spare export LNG plant capacity (like Oman) you can sell spot LNG cargoes to China/Japan/Korea if the price margin is right
- if you have a need for gas generated power you can get the gas (if you pay)
- if you own a piece of the commiunal pipeline network you can get income
- if you have EOR projects that need gas, they can get it

The market will take care of the rest. (long vs short, big suppliers vs distributerd demand). If Qatar can supply gas cheaper and more efficient;y to Oman than Iran, or BP, great. Let's at least find out.) DME can provide the hedging, Qatar the money, and the rest of us the demand.


And,
Enjoy the world cup. For once, Africa beat the USA...

Absentee Landlord? News, gossip and a translated Supreme Court Injunction.

Dearest readers. I can be a LAZY dragon sometimes. Although apparently I was in Spain...

There was just no decent news, and it was HOT, and... Nawras have decided to block all encrypted VPNs for some reason, so I had to go back to hated OmanHel. This is the life.

I was also busy at work, earning treasure for my lords and masters at the Ministry. They fortunately took my advice about avoiding the British Petroleum call option, at least for the moment, and saved a few squillion as BP's share price subsequently proceeded to continue to plummet harder than an oil drenched pelican. This is how one earns a crust, dear friends. (But, if you're interested, next week may be a good time to strike, if you're rich, diversified and of a speculative mood.)

So, what's been happening here in Oman?

Well, the Abu Dhabi royal family sorted out their ownership of Blue City's most influential bonds, and celebrated with a mini-PR campaign celebrating the news in Abu Dhabi royal family controlled newspaper The National. Naturally.
All great news for Oman, obviously, and the press flurry included a delightful puff piece by normally quite solid reporter Bradley Hope on the tribulations of poor CEO Richard Russel and how it was all doomed before he even started. Wonderful.

More to come next week on Blue City, as there is lots of stuff settling down behind the scenes on-going, what with Bahraini co-initiators of the project AAJH now backed by also rather flush Qatar, Blue City forced to post loads of interesting documents and letters by the insurers of Anees' vast debt, and AAJH securing an injunction from the Omani Supreme Court while the lawyers do battle again as to who owns the almost bankrupt development holding company...

Supreme Court ---- Judicial decision
Issued at the session on Wednesday, 21st, June, 2010.

From the Supreme Court (Trading Department)

Formed of vice-chairman of the court, attorney Khalifa bin Muhammad bin Abdullah Al Hadhramy, the membership of lawyers;

D. Muhammad Salih Muhammad Sayid Ahmad
Ahmad bin Ayashy Al Jandoobi
Muhammad Jamal Al Deen Sulaiman
Kamal Amin Abd Al Nabi
And Secretary Thabit bin Said Al Humaidi

(Firstly) to look into the request for a stay of the ruling presented in the appeal No. 90/2010 in Verdict No. 349/2008 by appellants:

Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd
OASIS Middle East Holding Company, Ltd
Represented by attorney Mona Tahir Ahmad Amer from Qays Al Qasimy and Mona Amer Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

Appealed against:

Al-Zawbaa Company (LLC) represented by Yassir Al Salami and his Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy office.

(Secondly) to look into the request for a stay of the ruling presented in the appeal No. 95/2010 in Verdict No. 349/2008 by appellant:
Al-Zawbaa Company (LLC) represented by attorney Yassir bin Obaid bin Mosa Al Salami from Yassir Al Salami and his Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

Appealed againt:
Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd
OASIS Middle East Holding Company, Ltd
AAJ Holdings Company represented by Qays Al Qasimy and Mona Amer Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

(Thirdly) to look into the request for a stay of the ruling presented in the appeal No. 98/2010 in Verdict No. 349/2008 by appellant:
AAJ Holdings Company represented by attorney Ez Al Deen Muhammad Othman Al Sharif from Salim Al Suneidy and Ali Al Kasby and Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

After review of appeal papers, it is discerned that the grounds on which the request for a stay of the ruling is based are serious. Thereby, it is difficult to remedy the grave danger in case the ruling is performed prior to the decision subject to the appeal. Consequently, a temporary stay of the ruling will be granted, in accordance with Article (245) in the Code of Civil and Commercial Procedure, by all appellants except Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd for its appeal is not accepted due to removing it without a capacity (according to the document by the notary public in the UK which confirms that Mr. John Willoughby Giles Catchpole is the director of Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd, which is different from the appellant, as well as that the power of attorney of the company’s attorney is not signed by Mr. John Willoughby Giles Catchpole. The signature attributed to Mr. John Willoughby is set in a paper independent of the power of attorney, which lessens the validity of it.

For the reasons aforementioned:
The court ordered to suspend the ruling of the impugned decision for appellants Al-Zawbaa Company in appeal No. (95/2010) and AAJ Holdings in appeal No. (98/2010), as well as appellant OASIS Middle East Holding Company, Ltd in only appeal No. (90/2010), pending a decision on appeal and the legal proceedings.
Rejected the request for a stay of the ruling presented by appellant Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd. The request expenses are imposed on the appellant.

So a hint of promise for AAJH. Their new lawyer (Saddam Hussein's ex-defense brief) will now at least get a chance to enhance his reputation.

Meanwhile,

HM has been on a visit to Kuwait.

Photo: HM meets the Emir of Kuwait. The party scene at the Emir's pad near Ras Madrakka is probably not HM's sort-a gig... (ripped form the Observer)

It would probably have been easier for him to meet the Emir of Kuwait while he was on one of his very regular (every few weeks or so) private visits to his shag tranquil palace in the south of Oman coast. It seems the tedious constraints of life in Kuwait are not applied in Oman, so cue boats, broads and booze mango juice in his personal paparazzi-free party pad. He flies straight down in his private jet to lands at PDO's nice new airport in Marmul, apparently.

Who can blame him?


In oil and Gas news, yet another new operator decided to quit Oman, with Aussie battlers Oilex deciding to exit Block 56 in south Oman, claiming bigger fish to fry. Sad. They have such cute accents.

The story on BG's exit (broken here) eventually made the mainstream media too.

HE Jashmi, Undersec at the MOG, was quoted in Reuters today that, surprise surprise, 100% Omani Government owned and EP Operator wannabe Oman Oil was "in discussions with the MOG" on taking over the block where BG has proven has lots of (expensive, hard to produce) gas.

As the Deputy Chairman of Oman Oil Co is also, as it happens, the Minister of Oil and Gas, HE Dr. Rumhy, that must have been a rather schizophrenic discussion... LOL. Like I said, expect a deal involving using the gas to develop some heavy oil elsewhere soon... You heard it here first folks.


Finally,
Is Israel about to hit Iran? There are reliable reports they have secured a Saudi air corridor. There does seem to be a concerning flurry of diplomacy readers.

I do hope not... But then one can hardly predict the Israelis... Advice: Avoid Thumrait and Masirah, and secured high bits of Mussandam, for the next few weeks.

Just a thought!

Rumours of another cyclone not yet based on facts; Abu Dhabi royal family confirm they got 99%+ Blue City bonds

Bit of a quiet week.

First, the Abu Dhabi Royal family confirmed this week that Essdar Capital, one of their many investment arms, were successful in acquiring more than 99% of the outstanding A class secured Blue City 1 bonds at about 63 cents in the dollar - quite a premium for a seriously distressed sale, but I guess they can afford the risk. (thanks for all the emails too)

Dubai company gains control of Blue City
Bradley Hope, The National

Last Updated: June 09. 2010 9:06PM UAE / June 9. 2010 5:06PM GMT

Essdar Capital, an investment company based in Dubai, said yesterday it had obtained almost all of the senior debt of the struggling Blue City property development in Oman and would take control of the project.

“What it gives us is significant control over decision making on the project,” said Suketu Sanghvi, the senior managing director of structuring and investments at Essdar. “If any restructuring needs to be done, the project needs to be revived or business plans need to be changed, we can manage that as the owner of the Class A bonds.”

...

Essdar is majority-owned by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed and Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed, members of Abu Dhabi’s Royal Family.

Mr Sanghvi said the project was not yet out of difficulties. The first move Essdar would make would be to meet with management about the project’s future, aiming to focus on its hotel and tourism components earlier than planned in the original business strategy.

Things may take a few months to sort out, with the legal complications, and the battle between Cyclone owners HH Haitham and Anees Zedjali and AAJH still going through the courts. (although AAJH did get an injunction from the high court in their favour a couppe of weeks ago, albeit with no legal implications either way for eventual judgement). Watch this space.


Meanwhile, the sky is not falling
Rumours and panicked emails are doing the rounds, alleging another cyclone is coming to Oman. This rumour is just not true, and is a regular Gonu anniversary phenomena, especially given the recent cyclone Phet.

What is true is that some computer models indicated a possibility for the elevated sea temperatures to generate a tropical cyclonic (this just means a low pressure spinning thing) storm of the west coast on India, but so far that hasn't happened.

Who knows? I'll keep an eye on it. The rains and hail in the Oman Mountains these past few days are not related in any way to another secret cyclone, BTW. The latest sat image from the professionals at the JTWC is reassuring.

Breaking News: BG Group (old British Gas) quit Oman - Government's Oman Oil company will take it over

News was circulating last week that British Gas BG Group - who successfully bid for Block 61 60 in the North-East of Oman - had failed to reach agreement with the Ministry of Oil and Gas on a gas price, and so have pulled out of Oman and walked away.


Photo: BG drilling for gas in Block 61, taken from Johnathon D Woods flickr

Block 61 60 was a piece of Oman relinquished by PDO shareholders 4 years ago. In the block there was already a big discovered gas field, estimated to hold around 8TCF of gas in the rock, I'm told. That's potentially a lot of gas.


Map: BG got the long thin red coloured gas field next to Saudi. BP has the red gas field to the north-east of BG's one. Map ripped from Tethis Oil press release.


The Government owned 100% of the gas rights, but there was only 1 (very expensive) well and the results were disappointing - PDO couldn't get it to flow very well. So the Ministry of Oil and Gas decided to get an overseas company in to try and do better, but without the MOG needing to contribute a dime. Sweet.

BG bid and was awarded the 1500km2 area to see what they could do, with a $150 million "work programme" that involved new seismic, studying things and drilling 8 wells.

BG did just as they promised, and while my sources say they confirmed PDO's discovery, they couldn't get the wells to produce very well either. The rates were apparently all between 1 - 8 million cubic feet a day, and also produced a lot of liquid HC called condensate which is worth as much as oil.

The key problem was that their deal meant they had to agree a gas price with the Omani Government before they could go ahead and develop it. This they failed to do, with the Government offering too little and/or BG asking too much. I haven't yet got the exact prices and economics, but my people are crunching the numbers and I'll update you next week. It could be the deal was just too much work for too little reward as far as BG was concerned. They have plenty of other things to invest in elsewhere.

So BG has walked, presumably taking with them their offer to set up their regional ME base in Oman. BG did not respond to my requests for comments.

Instead, I'm told the Government's fledgling Oil and Gas Company, Oman Oil E&P, will be given the job of producing the gas. That means they'll get to keep the wells BG drilled, plus all their reports and stuff, all for free!

I wonder if having Oman Oil take the project over was the plan all along? This way the locals get an almost economic development on a silver platter, with all the risks removed, and a nice little sand pit to play in while they learn the ropes. The Government could also force Petroleum Development Oman (who apparently need lots of gas to produce their oil) to buy the gas at a price that, by definition, makes it economic.

It won't be easy even then I'm informed, as that valuable condensate could make the gas rate from the wells drop even more as the pressure drops and the wells become sort of blocked with fluid.

I also wonder how this bodes for embattled BP, who did a similar gas deal with an old PDO discovery (except for a rumoured 650 million!) in nearby block 60 61, where there is apparently potential for a lot more gas. They have a similar 'lets talk later about the price' deal with the Government.

Hmmm...


This is what British Gas BG Group said in their 2009 BG Annual Report:

...
Oman
During 2008 and 2009, BG Group drilled seven wells to target depth on Block 60, which contains the Abu Butabul gas and condensate discovery. The Group has carried out sufficient appraisal work to delineate the main section of the field and no further appraisal wells are planned to be drilled.

Focus now shifts to finding optimum ways to develop the field. Abu Butabul is a tight gas discovery and the ability to get gas to flow effectively and efficiently will be key to determining commercial viability. The Group is aiming to move to project sanction in 2010 and targeting production start-up from the field by 2012.