Monday, September 15, 2008

Is the MSM bottoming out?

For the past 2 days, the MSM index has been trading basically flat. The pension funds try to push the index up at the start of the day, followed by selling and slow decline.

Perhaps no-one has many shares left to sell?

The index reached its lowest point ever this year of 8,069.480 yesterday during trading, and is again at a new low closing for the year of 8,181.720. My post on Sept 2nd taking of 8,000 is looking scarily prophetic. You can compare with the latest 3 yr trend.

If oil price stays OK, this market must be nearing bottom, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong and it'll keep going to 7,000 (although I can't believe the Government would allow that..). remember that even right now the index is still 23% UP on 12 months ago. If the market picks up, just don't expect 50% returns going forward... trade the bounces. And stick to big, quality companies with plenty of liquidity, like I keep saying.

1 comment:

  1. My gut feeling it will remain volatile for some time may be between 7500 to 8500. After seeing the graph i will not be surprised if it goes below 7000. When people read the growth story, they have to discount the unusually high inflation figure prevailing in this region.

    Do you know the PE of Oman Index and other emerging markets?


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