Sunday, September 7, 2008

Expect a quick bounce in MSM today - Government waves the big stick

Soon the MSM will open (in about 20 min as I type), and I'm expecting the Government to move to bounce the market away from its record low for the year reached on Thursday of less than 8,800. The cavalry is on its way...

As reported in The Tribune today (and on Muscat Confidential yesterday), the Minister of C&I Maqbool Bin Ali Bin Sultan 'held talks' with Oman Pension funds (which are anyhow mostly Government controlled) and telling them the drop in the market was ' not justified' and was hurting small investors, so they'd better sort it out - ie BUY, BUY, BUY. (Aside: The Minister probably had to get involved as clearly the exortations of the Chairman of the Omani Chamber of Commerce to not sell didn't really work a couple of weeks ago...)

Of course, a big driver behind the drop has been the recent 10%+ growth in the strength of the dollar, to which the Omani rials is fixed. And the significant drop in Omani oil price. This has emboldened overseas investors (and perhaps some Omani big boys too...) to get money out of the MSM and into pounds or Euros.

But, as the Government controls who runs the Pension funds, I expect the boys will do what their paymaster has instructed them to do with gusto today, or perhaps they won't be running a pension fund for much longer. And perhaps then the papers here will report on the MSM's 'record rise' and how everythings obviously totally OK... LOL.
Maqbool holds talks with pension funds
MUSCAT HE Maqbool Bin Ali Bin Sultan, Minister of Commerce and Industry and chairman of the Capital Markets Authority, on Saturday held talks with pension funds to find out the reasons behind the Muscat Securities Market slump and the steps need to regain investors’ confidence.

Profits of listed companies in the first half of 2008 has been 54 per cent higher compared to the same period last year. Hence the minister felt the market plunge was not justified. He also pointed to the stability of the economic conditions in the Sultanate. High oil prices during the first half of the year also saw the implementation of a number of projects across the country, he added.

Maqbool urged pension funds to manage their investments in a manner that while enhancing their profits boosted small investors’ confidence.
CMA CEO HE Yahya Bin Said Al Jabri said the main reason behind the slump was that investors sold shares in some companies to buy shares in other Omani companies, a pointer to their trust in the local economy.

7 comments:

  1. It seems you have swayed HM's view s on MOM, within a week of your blog on protesting students, we have new Minister.
    Please add more about Engineer's move from Municipality to Diwan. It seems he will have less action in the new place.
    What happens to the current minister of Manpower?

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  2. Bleh.. economics is boring.

    I expected you to post about the major ministerial change that took place and Eng. Abdullah Abbas being no longer President of Muscat Municipality...

    Any background on the new Engineer?

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  3. The new Chair of the Municipality was Under-Secretary with the Min of Heritage, was on the Tender Board and sits on some Oman companies as the government representative (Oman Telecom and the like) . I guess the pressure of the 2010 national day is building.

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  4. The new Chair of the Municipality was Under-Secretary with the Min of Heritage, was on the Tender Board and sits on some Oman companies as the government representative (Oman Telecom and the like) . I guess the pressure of the 2010 national day is building.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Amjad, Anon 1
    Well, not if you've been speculating in the market like many many middle class Omanis!

    And see next post on the reshuffle.

    Anon 2,
    I wonder if he'll play a role at his ex-boss's project - Blue City??

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  6. Why on earth will he have something to do with Blue City when he's in charge of Muscat Municipality? Also heard that there could be a couple of other changes in the ministries...any news?

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  7. Anon,

    well, the new head of the Muscat Municipality used to work as an undersec at Heritage. And the Minister of Heritage & Culture is apparently a major shareholder in Cyclone, the local company that presently controls Blue City...

    ReplyDelete

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