The ferry saga continued – Business Consultant Essa to the rescue!

I should have done a post on this last week, but, ah, work sometimes gets too crazy.

Essa Al Zedjali, Editor of the hard-hitting Times of Oman, and (according to the Times of Oman) one of Oman’s most eminent intellectuals and authors, took issue last week with the pricing of the infamous new ferries, saying they were far too expensive and should cut their prices, and effectively asking for public money to subsidise the ferries even more than they are already... (see below). I actually agree with him.

I’d have preferred he comment on the lack of jetties, the half-assed decision to buy them in the first place, the lack of trained Omanis to run it, and who's actually paying for all this, but let’s get the financials right first!

The details are below, but the bottom line is:
- Almost no matter what they charge, the ferries are highly uneconomic. The cheapest way to operate the boats is to, er, not operate them at all.
- The most likely face saving 'solution' is to write-off the capital investment of the boats and jetties, and then try to cover the visible running costs through fares. Thats what the NFC is for, and is trying to do at least on paper. Even then, the Government is effectively subsiding the tickets by a HUGE amount.
- By my estimate, the true cost to the Government of a return ticket is around 400 rials per person if they only run 3 times a week and get some money from transporting cars eventually. Not counting the 90% fuel subsidy, the cost is around 140 rials per person per trip.
- To break even just on running costs, with generous assumptions on occupancy and cheap fuel, prices would need to be ~twice what the NCA currently charge.

Taking account of the true value of diesel, running the trip only 3.5 times a week, the Government will need to provide an effective annual subsidy of ~12-13 million rials a year, mostly through cheap fuel and providing the boats for free.

Ignoring the cost for the boats and jetties, and the fuel subsidy, the Government will still have to subsidise operations to the tune of 1.5 to 2 million rials per year.

Countries all over the world subsidise their ferry’s for social benefit reasons. Its obvious from the basic calculations below that Oman will have to do the same. I think the real answer is that the subsidy should be transparent, so people are aware that it is NOT an economic business. And you have to avoid giving the ferry company principals a blank cheque to pay themselves a fortune for running a money losing business.

At current fares, they will only pull in at most about 1 million a year, and with Essa’s suggested prices about half that. Compared to the costs, it makes no real difference to the real subsidy either way.

So, as I said on this blog previously, this is a great trip, mostly paid for by the Ministry of National Economy. And I’m almost afraid to say, I amazingly find myself agreeing with Essa. (I know, I find it hard to believe too. That’s why I had to run the numbers myself!) The subsidy needed is so high, that the price of the tickets is almost immaterial. Better to make them as cheap as you can, at least for Omani’s or residents, and fill the boat. Make up some of the money in the Khasab hotels, and on food and booze.

Personally, I’d take the second ferry and turn it into a floating Casino, based out of Khasab. And maybe think about running the ferry to Dubai and or Iran, as well as the Muscat-Khasab route.

I'm just glad I don't own the ferries... But I wish I was able to be Chairman of the company that does, and pay myself heaps of Government money for running a loss making business. Nice work if you can get it.

Picture: One of Oman's ferries in its most economic setting: out of the water, unused.

Details
I decided to try and guestimate the breakeven price for the tickets.
Capital Costs
2 Ferries: reported purchase price ~26 million rials
Jetties: I dunno, but lets say another 5 million
Assuming a 6% discount rate (seeing as how the Government effectively owns them and can borrow the money pretty cheaply), and a 20 year life, that means you need 2.6 million rials per year to pay all that off.

Operating Cost
Crew of 12 x 2 ferries, manpower to run the jetties, some marketing people, … Probably about 1 million rial per year at least
Maintenance: Those ferries are pretty high tech: say 200k per year
One Ferry return trip Muscat to Kasab burns about 60,000 litres of diesel. Even at Government subsidized rates of 130 biaisa per litre, that’s 7,800 rials per return trip. (You should note, at current international rates for diesel, the Government could instead sell that same diesel for ~60,000 rials!).

If we do a trip every day (just to try and get the investment back by working the ferries as much as possible) that’s 2.8 million rials worth of subsidised fuel per year.

So, combining the above, it means every trip costs the owners ~18,000 rials. Just to break even. Running on highly subsidized fuel. What a deal.

Now, the income side.
The boats seat ~200 people. I don’t have the exact numbers, but lets say 10 VIPs, 20 1st Class, and 170 Tourist class. At the current rates from NFC, assuming VIPs don’t pay, and a 90% capacity, they receive ~8,300 rials in fares if they fill the boat. At Essa’s suggested rates they would take in at most ~3,700 rials.

So, even with current NFC rates they lose at least 10,000 rials per trip, 3.6 million rials a year. If they cut them further as suggested by Essa you’d lose around 15,000 rials a trip, or 5.3 million a year. (Note: If they had to pay real prices for the fuel though, that would amount to annual losses of ~27 million rials a year, and they may as well give away the seats it makes so little difference).

Of course, if the boats are empty at current prices, Essa’s absolutely right that you are probably better of cutting prices to fill the boat. The NCA’s original prices seem to be designed to roughly cover visible running costs based on subsidized fuel and assuming almost full occupancy. Their latest fare cut is probably just to try and lose less money and get more than 5 passengers a day. And of course the last thing you actually want to do is run the boat at all, because it just burns more cash!

Opinion: Times of Oman 5th October 2008

Two giant ferries in the Gulf of Oman!
Essa bin Mohammed Al Zedjali
Sunday, October 05, 2008 11:57:50 PM Oman Time

A FEW weeks ago I had read a news item in local papers that the second ferry named ‘Hormuz’ had joined the fleet of the government-owned National Ferry Company (NFC). A few days ago the local papers reported that the NFC has reduced the Muscat-Khasab-Muscat ticket price from RO74 to RO44 for the economy class and to RO85 for the first class.

The news item has been warmly received by the citizens. But we still demand that the company offers further reductions which are more in line with the income of the citizens and take into account the cost of living and the price hike that has affected people from all walks of life. This reduction is demanded because the two-way air ticket costs only RO49 for the 45-minute flight while it takes 6 hours by ferry.

A committee comprising representatives of the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Transport and Communications, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of National Economy and Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry should have been formed before the launch of the ferries to determine the right prices of tickets. But it seems the board of the National Ferry Company has fixed the prices without taking into account the opinion of the said authorities.

This shows that the decision to fix the prices of tickets is taken randomly by the NFC board, without any consultation or coordination with the government authorities concerned, which has shocked and upset the citizens and made this issue the talk of the town during the last two months.

This project is of vital significance and aimed at facilitating the movement of citizens and residents to and from the northern coastal areas as part of the government’s wise policy of boosting domestic tourism. For this purpose, the NFC should have financial support from the government in order to enable it to run such a project safely and efficiently. The company could, at present, reconsider the prices of tickets, though it may increase them gradually later on.

We once again appeal to the National Ferry Company to reconsider the ticket prices and suggest a two-way ticket of RO20 for adults and RO10 for children for the economy class provided the ticket price does not include provision of food and drinks. We also suggest that the two-way first class ticket should not cost more than RO50 and should not include food and drinks. The passengers could have their meals at the coffee shops on the ferry.

By doing this, the NFC could rightly achieve the objectives of its logo "navigation in nature" as many people will prefer to travel within the country by two of the fastest ferries in the world in complete comfort and safety.

Pour encourager les autres... Muscat style

Yes, truly the phrase Pour encourager les autres seems so appropriate!
I've been meaning to blog this story for a few weeks, but kept being distracted. And I wanted a nice picture too, especially for my overseas visitors. Here is the infamous new building near Muscat International Airport, built by sacked Minister of Manpower Juma Al Juma.


As you can see, it is now being summarily torn down, in a highly public display of what happens when you take things too far, Minister or not.

The story that finally emerged is that the building was both too high for the international rules for the glide path of an international airport, and was being partially built on some other Minister's land, and it had been built under an illegitimate building permit issued by ex-head of the Muscat Municipality, who allegedly over-ruled his engineer.

They got caught, and His Majesty was not impressed. Hence the dismissals, and now the building is being torn down too. Apparently the place got ransacked of its fixures before the demolition crew moved in, after word got out of the order to tear it down. Everybody knows the story, and people actually visit the site (next to the Shell Petrol Station as you approach the airport from Muscat) to see it. But of course not a whisper of it in the press!!

A similar deconstruction occured a few years ago in Qurm, where the unfinished palace of another disgraced Minister (on the site next door to the Khimji's big place) was torn down and the land apparently confiscated.

Such is the fate of those who fly too close to the sun. His Majesty knows full well of the corruption that surrounds him, but he has apparently said, when asked why he didn't replace those Ministers and officials he knew to be enriching themselves from the public purse, "Better a full rat than a hungry rat".

A wise man indeed.

But in this case they went too far, both endangering the airport and letting a spat about the ownership of land become public. Hence the very public nature of the dismissals.

MSM plummets

Just a quick post. Despite the latest exhortations from no less a Government personage now than HE Mackie, Minister of National Economy a couple of days ago, the Muscat market continued to drop like a rock thrown off Jebel Shams, hitting 6,626.94 points.

In the past 3 and a bit months, the market has fallen almost 46%. Bank Muscat shares, just after they released reasonable Q3 results, dipped under 900 biasa per share today (and after being tipped by Muscati a few weeks ago as a buy at 1.2 rials), that a drop in the past few months of an incredible 60% from a peak of 2.22 rials.

If you're brave, this must be a time to buy Bank Muscat and Galfar. Oman's economy is secured on solid oil and gas production and oil prices are unlikely to dip below $70. Companies with mostly local engineering customers are a good buy.

People are only selling now to meet margin calls. Unless there is something really fishy going on, this market for local, quality stocks like Galfar, BM, Renaissance has hit bottom, IMHO.

No real news - everyone on holiday. Oman's Luvvies celebrate drama initiative

Took a few days off during Eid, hence no posts. But what a wonderful time off. Nothing but beach, pool, food and, finally being able to hit the bars again (as they were closed to all but 5 star hotel guests during Ramadan).

I hope you all enjoyed the end of Ramadan too. And, of course, back to work tomorrow (unless you're in the private sector and already back at work).

How to maximise your chances of dying in a car crash - don't wear a seatbelt...
First, some local Indian workers and their visiting relatives and friends ended up rolling down a ravine in a rented Land Cruiser over the weekend, in a tragic accident coming down from Jebel Akhdar.

Five Indians dead, 6 injured in Jabal Al Akhdar accident

Times News Service
Friday, October 03, 2008 11:10:25 PM Oman Time
MUSCAT — Five people were killed and six others injured when the vehicle they were travelling fell into a ravine in the niyabat of Jabal Al Akhdar in the Wilayat of Nizwa.

The ill-fated 4WD vehicle carrying a number of Indian expatriates fell into the ravine yesterday while the occupants were returning from a trip to Jabal Al Akhdar, killing five of them on the spot.

The Royal Omani Police (ROP) promptly rushed to the spot and took the injured to the Nizwa Referral Hospital for treatment. A reliable source confirmed that the wounded persons were in stable condition.
...
The picnic that turned a nightmare
Times News Service
Sunday, October 05, 2008 12:01:05 AM Oman Time
MUSCAT — The ill-fated Land Cruiser that slipped into a ravine near Jabal Al Akhdar on Friday, apparently fell prey to a sudden brake failure that resulted in five people dying on the spot and six being injured including two children.
...

What's really sad is that brake failure is being blamed. When perhaps more could be made of the fact that there were 11 people in the damned car. Thank goodness the poor kids seem only to have been injured.

More from the Times of Oman department of shameless self promotion
Last week also saw the publishing of another banal "Viewpoint" on the front page of that awesome organ of the 4th Estate here that is, The Times of Oman. (Is there any other so-called leading newspaper that outs editorial on the front page above the fold?) This one was gushing about His Majesty's recent instruction for Ministers to develop theatre and drama in the Sultanate, presumeably to ensure some decent local content can take up the opportunity presented by the new Opera House being built in Shatti. But it's interesting that Essa Al Zedjali is clearly a big theatre buff, even expressing a preference for 'method acting', a specific form of acting technique developed by American Lee Strasberg, based on the famous work of turn of the century Russian actor and Director Constantin Stanislavski, and popular with some of Hollywood's greats like Al Pacino. Must admit, I didn't pick out Essa as a luvvie, but there you go. The squeals of joy from FODs across the Sultanate on hearing of the drama initiative must have been legion. I look forward to seeing an Omani Laurence Olivier one day, but perhaps a local Marlon Brando is where we'd best start.

Perhaps the first order of business for the high powered committee will be to try and make ordinary Omanis see the theatre as a place for anyone to have a respectable career. I think the majority of Oman's common culture in general still sees the acting occupation to be in line with prostitution and loose morals, somewhat similar to western society of the late 1800s - 1930s...

...
In fact, all sincere efforts extended during the past years in the field of drama and theatre for establishing an Omani theatre movement, in the full sense of the word, and for production of distinct local drama, were not extended within methodological frameworks and plans, and were without regulatory measures, leading to a state that was less than what was desirable.

It is hence important here to point out the requirements for the success of any theatre movement, particularly in the Sultanate. The most significant requirement would be a change from the concept of ‘amateurism’ to a state of ‘professionalism’ through establishing an institute that specialises in method acting, production and other related works. This is in addition to the necessity of the vital role the private sector needs to play here. Another important requirement would be the reconsideration of the wages of actors/actresses and all who work in the field of drama and theatre. Initiating a mechanism for promoting and marketing local drama abroad would enable the Omani theatre to make its presence felt in the Gulf, Arab and international arena.

The field of drama and theatre also requires induction of ‘new blood’, every year. This can be made possible by setting up a specialised academic institute that would shoulder the objectives of the theatre in the Sultanate. An association of theatre artistes and performers, similar to the associations of journalists and writers, could also be formed. Such an association will care for the affairs of the artistes and those working in the field of theatre and TV drama for further advancement of the march of theatre in the Sultanate in coordination with the government and private sector institutions concerned. Such a step would also lead to introduction of objective local drama that deals with the present and future issues of the society in the light of the deep-rooted Omani heritage.

And from the 'No common sense please we're Bahraini' dept
In other news, the Bahraini Foreign Ministry and Bahraini foreign minister Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmad Al Khalifa have been taking some flack from
local Islamo-nutters in Bahrain for daring to suggest a formal forum for regional dialogue with Israel and other non-Arab countries might be a useful step to get some positive change in the Israeli-Palistinian problem. See Gulf News. The right wing types don't even want to acknowledge the validity of any Jewish state in the area. Intersting how in line this group are with the right wing in the States who similarly want to set impossible preconditions on Iran before talking to them either.

...
However, the Bahrain Society for Anti-Normalisation with the Zionist Enemy, a prominent non-government organisation (NGO) rejected the call.

"The formation of a regional organisation that includes the Zionist entity is in fact an implementation of the US plans to support Israel in the Arab world and is part of the so-called Greater Middle East which seeks to integrate the Zionists in the region," the society said in a statement.
...

Internet Filters, unblocking, and what you should know

Internet filtering. Its not just OmanHel who are doing it, naturally. Iran, China, the UAE, Saudi, Tunisia, heck, even America. Until I figured out how to get around Omantel it really used to piss me off. Especially when it was just a pretty harmless site like www.goremy.com, home site of the funny Arabian comedian.

However, even if the blocking doesn't bother you, you should be aware - especially if you're a parent with teenage kids - that it's not difficult to circumvent these Omantel blocks. Especially with both the high level of IT savvy kids have today, and the supersonic rate at which information can and is shared. For example, a super common programme popular with the kids in Oman right now is called hotspot shield. Have a look and see if you can find it amongst the applications on your kids computer. Google will help you find it (although the home website is, of course, blocked by Omantel).

Most people don't actually have a problem with OmanTel blocking criminal, pornographic, or dangerous sites, or monitoring your every move on the internet. But I know almost everybody - except it seems the TRA and Omantel - gets really pissed off with the blocking of Skype and other VOIP providers just to protect their old world monopoly on international phone calls, and to assist the security services in listening in on those calls too (its notoriously difficult to listen in on skype calls). Same with blocking YouTube, or MySpace (neither yet blocked in Oman, BTW).

[One excellent VOIP that isn't blocked so far, BTW, is www.XXXXXXXXX.YYY .... no, I won't tell Omantel here (I get several readers from the countries IT monopoly). Email me and I'll send you the link if you're desperate.]

Omantel also, understandably, block pretty much every proxy site and proxy programe download site too. So, you may need to be persistent.

To assist you in getting access where you want, and to give my readers real, solid advice from someone who's an expert and really smart (rather than you trying to get advice from your little brother's IT savvy friend) - here's an excellent professional guide on the issue of filtering, site blocking, unblocking, and how to circumvent those controls by Ron Deibert, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Citizen Lab at the Munk Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto. They've produced a laymans guide that explains all you need to know to get around Internet censorship and filtering systems, and the serious considerations you should consider (for example, it may be illegal, and you may not be as anonymous as you think...).

So. here is all you need to know about Internet circumvention technologies:Everyone's Guide to By-Passing Internet Censorship for Citizens Worldwide. Highly recommended.

You will be pleased to know (or maybe not?) that getting around the filters is straightforward, especially if you have a friend on the outside who can email you the applications discussed in detail in this article. But be aware that this may be dangerous and illegal.

Another WayA
nother way around if you don't have time, don't like messing with scary proxy programs, are on a shared computer, or just aren't very IT savvy at all, is to use good old www.Google.com as an effective proxy because Google is, of course, not likely to be blocked by Omantel. This works because the IP address will appear to Omantel as Google instead of you. Note that this is not always effective as it can easily be combated by the more sophisticated techniques, and it is NOT anonymous, but no harm trying!

There are 4 ways:
1/ After a normal Google search, select the "cached" version, which will download from Google's memory banks rather than the original site.

2/ Use google images - its not filtered, especially if you set safe mode off in the preferences (although following the links probably will be if you search naughty things).

3/ Even better, Use the fantastic Google translate utility to access to blocked sites. Here's the URL to use directly:
http://translate.google.com/translate_t?hl=en#web:zh-CN|en|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.OMANTELBLOCKEDSITE.COM
(where OMANTELBLOCKEDSITE.COM is the site that you wish to visit)

If you want to see a blocked page thats already in English, set translate mode from "Chinese into Enlish", you'll get it unchanged and viewed through google. You may need to select the no frame option if you don't get the whole site (see top right).

4/ Use another great utility Google offers to convert any site into mobile friendly format.
If you want, you can see Muscat Confidential this way.
Just search for your blocked site with google mobile and click on the link it provides. Once again, this will often allow you to bypass any blocks because the IP request comes from Google. The only side effect of this method is that google formats the site for a mobile device.

So, enjoy your Eid folks. This should enable you to see anything you want on the internet anyhow. Drive safe.

Thefts and car jacking.

Eid is the season of thefts, unfortunately. It seems may people get their kids bicycles, outdoor toys and even their outdoor furniture stolen at this time of year. My contacts in PDO's camp in Qurm have seen a spate of daring late night motorbike and quad bike thefts, where the theives even cut chains and carry the bikes off in a truck, including several new Harley Davidson motorbikes.

One interesting email circulating is this car jacking warning, alledgedly happening in UAE. Seems sensible, but.. its a fake.
Update - Thanks to Man in Muscat Snopes busts it as a myth/hoax. Makes sense.

But, if you've a motorbike or quad bike, especially a nice hog, do keep it behind a locked wall - they are being stolen (presumably re-exported somewhere) at an increasing rate of late.

here's the hoax email.

BEWARE OF PAPER ON THE BACK WINDOW OF YOUR VEHICLE--NEW WAY TO DO CAR - JACKINGS

Heads up everyone! You walk across the parking lot, unlock your car and get inside. You start the engine and shift into Reverse.

When you look into the rearview mirror to back out of your parking space, you notice a piece of paper stuck to the middle of the rear window. So, you shift into Park unlock your doors, and jump out of your car to remove that paper (or whatever it is) that is obstructing your view. When you reach the back of your car, that is when the carjackers appear out of nowhere, jump into your car and take off. They practically mow you down as they speed off in your car.

And guess what, ? I bet your purse is still in the car.

So now the carjacker has your car, your home address, your money, and your keys. Your home and your whole identity are now compromised!
BEWARE OF THIS NEW SCHEME THAT IS NOW BEING USED.

If you see a piece of paper stuck to your back window, just drive away. Remove the paper later..

Somali Pirates really asking for it...

Following a rash of successful hijackings of commercial ships off the coast of Somalia recently, plus the recent rescue by the French Navy of a French sailing couple, I suspect these guys might regret taking this latest one, a ship containing at least 30 tanks and assorted military hardware from the Ukraine, bound for Kenya.

They are asking for $35 mln. I suspect instead they are now going to get a lot more attention from the great powers. France is already on the case along with help from the Italians and Spanish, the Americans got involved a couple of months ago in passing, but now the Russians are sending a ship too.

It reminds me of one of those movies where the hero mistakenly steals a suitcase full of money from the Mafia, and finds out the Mafia are less concerned about getting it back than blowing away whoever took it. I don't think those ship-nappers will find the Russians are into paying for what's theirs already...

And I still think Oman should be tagging along to assist with the international effort. They are the only sensible country nearby with a half decent set of warships, and its an ideal opportunity for Oman to flex a tiny bit of regional muscle, gain some live fire practice for the Navy, all while doing the world a favour.

Just a suggestion...

BBC online

Pirates 'want $35m for tank ship'

Experts say piracy has become big business in the area. Pirates who seized a Ukrainian ship off the coast of Somalia have reportedly demanded a ransom of $35m (£19m) to release the vessel and its crew. The pirates earlier warned against any attempt to rescue the crew or cargo of the MV Faina, which is carrying 33 battle tanks destined for Kenya.

Pirates have seized dozens of ships near Somalia's coast in recent months. A Russian Navy vessel is heading to the region and the US says it is monitoring developments in the area.

A spokesman for the pirates, who gave his name as Jalal Jama Ali, told a Somali website that the group were prepared to negotiate with the Kenyan government, but would not release the vessel unless the ransom was paid.
...

Eid Mubarak - long weekend awaits

Word is the Eid holiday will be Tuesday 30th Sept - Sunday 5th October inclusive, so back at work Monday. Nice.

One of the many benefits of Oman is the large number of public holidays. There must be around 15 working days we get off a year, depending on how generous the Government is feeling. Luckily the weather is getting good enough for wadi bashing and camping, so should be a really nice break.

New Policy: Omani Government taxes safe drivers to subsidise young idiots

Ever noticed how incredibly expensive it is to insure a car in Oman? Its not because of Gonu making flood a big risk, nor is it (just) the super high rate of accidents on Oman. If you are an experienced driver over the age of 25, with no history of accidents or making claims, you are being effectively taxed to subsidise the insurance for an 18 year old male in his nice new high performance car.

Yep. In another brilliant Government sponsored initiative, this year the Oman Insurance regulator [the CMA] introduced a new policy, and a new mandatory proposal form. Car insurers in Oman are no longer allowed to ask the sort of important questions you would face if buying auto insurance in most countries, like how many accidents have you had, speeding tickets, who will be driving the car, etc. The insurers are also not allowed to restrict insurance to only drivers over a set age (regardless of the type or cost of the car), and they have been told that under no circumstances can a claim (even for damage to your own car, let alone the third party) be declined for non disclosure.

Now, the insurance companies still need to make money, even when they are forced to insure 18 yr olds who have a history of accidents and are driving nice new Dodge Chargers or Porsches.

So, what that means is the difference is coming from the rates they charge everyone else, including you, even if you are 50 years old, have never had an accident, and drive a Toyota Echo. It also means the insurers are fighting to try and skew their insured population as far as possible away from higher risk drivers, while staying within the regulations.

But, gee, thanks CMA. Like my insurance wasn't high enough already because of these young idiots risking my life and limb, now I even have to subsidise their adventures.

ROP skews road fatality statistics – what are your real chances?

How many people are killed on the roads in Oman every year? Care to guess?

Officially, according to the ROP statistics (more on that later in this post), last year Oman saw a total of 798 road accident fatalities, plus 8530 injuries. Already by end August this year, you’ll probably not be too shocked to learn we’d beaten that record with more than 800 dead, so we’re heading for a total of more than 1000 dead this year. Given the population of Oman – including expats - is around 2.5mln, that’s a rate of 40 per 100,000. On paper that looks like about 3 times the rate in the developed world. (Note, back in 1996, when Oman was already the worst in the Middle East, it was only 24 per 100,000. MENA stats). You can see crashes here.

The problem with this official number is that it’s, er, not true.

Really.

Something you won’t be told is that the official ROP number of road fatalities in Oman is only for adults who die at the scene of the accident. It does not include people who die from their injuries in hospital later, and most shockingly it does not include deaths of children. But at least that keeps the public numbers down, huh?

So, your guess is probably as good as mine as to what the real number of fatalities is. But it’s got to be a lot higher than 800 so far.

In trying to calculate what this actual number may be, it’s hard to link the ROP stats with the more accurate but hard to decipher Ministry of Health numbers, but it looks like:
1/ deaths of children under 16 total about 15% of adult road related fatalities
2/ the number of deaths of adults from road accidents who later die in hospital is around the same as the ROP figure for those by the road side (for 2006).

Combining these guestimates, I figure this year approx. 2,300 people will die in this country from car accidents. Put another way, thats about 2 in every 1000 adults in Oman.

Shocking. And thank goodness most Omanis don’t even drink alcohol, or just imagine what the numbers would be like...

And is there anything in the media about this? Not really. The ROP try, but they don’t have the budget or the skills for effective attempts at real PR campaigns. There are no Government campaigns getting people to wear seat belts, slow down, use child seats, or to stop overtaking on blind corners. It’s a national carnage that’s getting worse every year, and nothing is really being done to stop it. Too few ROP officers, and most of the time of the few we have must be spent cutting dead and dying bodies out of cars, rather than being able to even try to enforce the few road laws.

The ROP figure for injuries (probably more accurate than fatalities) is going to be over 10,000 this year. That means, dear reader, if you live in Oman you probably have a 0.5% chance of being injured or killed by a car next year.

So, take care people. Its certainly not a piece of advice you're going to get from the Government.

And perhaps those with a predeliction for giving religious based sermons could spend more time on this part of Omani behaviour, and make a real difference to the lives of hundreds of people right now...

All too true

Too busy to do much posting today. But I liked this poster from www.Despair.com


More ranting tomorrow...

Omani Islamic Scholar makes idiotic pronouncement on Organ transplant

The normally quite sane 'Omani religious scholar' Sh. Khalfan Al Esry came out in the press a few days ago with this stone age view on organ donation: ie that donation of organs is not allowed under Islam. See Gulf News story.

What a totally backward, superficial and counterproductive viewpoint. This is the sort of 'anti-commonsense bullshit pretending to be religion' stuff I expect to come from Saudi idiots or some guy living in a cave in Pakistan, not from Oman and especially not from someone as generally respected as Sh Khalfan.

Organ donation, especially of corneas and kidneys, is standard practice throughout the world. Yes, there remain valid ethical debates surrounding the practice, for example about whether it should be legal to trade organs, the definition of death, cloning, and how to prioritise the waiting list for those in need of organs. But the strictures Sh Khalfan uses in his superficial argument (at least as reported) would probably be just as applicable if used as an argument banning all surgery.

In a country plagued by cataracts and diabetes, and the common result of diabetes being renal failure, this opinion is in effect trying to condemn thousands of Omanis to a lifelong hell of expensive dialysis treatment and a significantly reduced life expectancy. (A recent study concluded that getting a kidney transplant doubles the life expectancy of a patient with end-stage renal disease undergoing dialysis treatment, from 10 years to 20 years.)

I can, unfortunately and rather mean spirited of me, only hope Sh. Khalfan gets to experience the horror of renal failure personally and can therefore take comfort that the only viable treatment of transplantation is not allowed for him by his god.

Omani scholar says organ donations not permissible in Islam
By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief
Published: September 16, 2008, 23:52
Muscat: Organ donation, including eyes, is not permitted in Islam, said an Omani Islamic scholar, who sees no harm in donating blood even in Ramadan.

"There are three schools of thought on organ donations by Muslims but the majority of Islamic scholars believe that organ donation is not permissible in Islam," Shaikh Khalfan Al Esry, a member of the Sultan Qaboos Grand Mosque's Steering Committee for Islamic Information Centre, told Gulf News in an interview.

Blood donation, he stressed, was different, as it is replenished. He said that a minority group of scholars believe organ donation was permissible while some would like to leave it to the individual to decide.

"Our body is sacred and a dead body is respected in Islam and there's no need to scavenge it for organ donations," Al Esry said.

Reasoning
"We handle the body with care and give privacy to it by covering it while taking it for burial. Then how can we think of removing its parts ?" he said. Removing organs for donation, he reckons, amounts to disrespecting the dead.

Al Esry also argued that an individual doesn't own his or her body. "It is a gift of the God and in Islam an individual can neither harm his or her own self physically, mentally nor spiritually."

Personally, I don’t find even this approach at all useful – eg trying to read between the lines of a 1400 year old document to interpret meaning in a contemporary scientific setting. This is how one ends up with such stupidity as calling an injection non-surgical, or that giving blood is comparable with breast feeding and thus IS allowed. It is common sense that someone who has died has no need of their kidneys or other organs, and the care taken to recover organs means the procedure is done with the utmost 'respect'. Oman is blessed in this regard with a large supply of relatively fit young men who chose to kill themselves on the roads, and thus provide a potentially significant source of kidneys and other body parts that could be used to ease the suffering of the living.

Readers who are concerned about the issue should instead read the deliberations of people perhaps much more qualified to have an opinion on such matters, and who have given the matter a lot more thought. eg
here.

Organ Transplant Ruling:
List of the Ulama' and Scholars who participated during the consultation and then approved the statement on
Organ Transplant:

1.Dr M A Zaki Badawi Principal, The Muslim College, London Chairman, The Muslim Law (Shari'ah) Council UK.
2.Dr Jamal Sulayman, Professor of Shari'ah, The Muslim College, London.
3.Dr A A Hamid, Professor of Hadith, The Muslim College, London.
4.Dr Fazel Milani, Professor at The International College of Islamic Sciences London.
5.Dr S M A Shahristani, Principal, The International College of Islamic Sciences London.
6.Moulana Abdul Hadi Umri, General Secretary, Jamia-te-Ahl-e-Hadith (UK).
7.Moulana Qamaruzzaman Azami, Chief Imam, North Manchester Central Mosque & General Secretary, The World Islamic Mission.
8.Mufti Mohammed Yunus President, The World Islamic Mission & Imam, Woking Mosque.
9.Mufti Mohammed Muniruzzaman, Imam, Munir-ul-Islam Mosque, Rochdale.
10.Dr Abdul Halim, Senior Imam, The Islamic Cultural Centre and London Central Mosque, Regent's Park London.
11.Mufti Alauddin, Head Imam, Brick Lane Central Mosque, London.
12.Moulana Hafiz M Khalid, Head Imam, Sparkbrook Islamic Centre, Birmingham.
13.Moulana Mumtaz Ahmed, Imam of Bradford.
14.A A Bashiri Esq. Barrister-at-Law.
15.R Abdullah Esq. Barrister-at-Law.
16.Dr Safia Safwat, Barrister-at-Law.
17.Moulana M Shahid Raza, Director, Islamic Centre Leicester & Secretary, The Muslim Law (Shari'ah) Council UK.
18.Mr S G Syedain, General Secretary, Imams & Mosques Council UK.
19.Dr. Manazir Ahsan, Director of the Islamic Foundation
...

The last five decades have witnessed a big leap in medical science bringing great benefits and skills which were unthinkable before. It is now possible to transplant organs from one body into another, which would help the recipient to continue to live. The significance of the heart has also changed as it is no longer considered the most important organ with regard to life and death. Medical opinion now considers the brain to be the central and crucial part which controls the entire body and its functions. When it is damaged partially or totally the body will suffer either partial or total deterioration. As a consequence of the present development in medical knowledge and skills a number of questions have arisen. These are:


Is it allowed to remove an organ like the kidney from the body of a living person and transplant it into the body of a sick person whose life depends on it?
Is it permissible to remove an organ from the body of a dead person to be used to save the life of a living person?
Is a person allowed to donate his body or part of it to be used after his death in saving the life of other people?
Does Islam recognise the new definition of death that is brain stem death?
If it does is it permissible to remove from brain stem dead persons organs for transplant while there are signs of body functions like heart beat temperature and breathing?
Before answering these questions it is important to note the following principles of Islamic Jurisprudence (Usul-Fiqh):
A person has the legal authority over his own body, attested by the fact that he can hire himself for work which might be difficult or exhausting. He may also volunteer for war which may expose him to death. A person is forbidden from harming himself or others (It is not legitimate in Islam to inflict harm on others or to suffer harm from them - Hadith). In case of Necessity certain prohibitions are waived as when the life of a person is threatened the prohibition on eating carrion or drinking wine is suspended.

"He has only forbidden you what has died by itself, blood and pork, and anything that has been consecrated to something besides God. Yet anyone who may be forced to do so, without craving or going too far, will have no offence held against him; for Allah is Forgiving, Merciful." (2:173)

Confronted with two evils a person is permitted to choose the lesser of the two, as in the case of a starving person whose life could be saved by either eating carrion or stealing from another person's food. He would be permitted to opt for the latter. Islam made it an obligation upon the sick to seek treatment.
In the light of the above principles the Council is of the opinion that:

1. It is permissible for a living person to donate part of the body such as the kidneys to save the life of another, provided that the organ donated would not endanger the donor's life and that it might help the recipient.

The Prophet (s.A.w.) says, "Whoever helps a brother in difficulty, God will help him through his difficulties on the Day of Judgement."

2. It is permissible to remove the organ of a dead person to be used to save the life of a sick person.

3. It is permissible for a person to donate his body or parts of it to be used after death to treat those who need transplants. So it is permissible for Muslims to carry a donor card.

4. In the absence of a donor card carried by the dead person it is sufficient to obtain the consent of the next of kin.

5. The proper authorities will act in lieu of relations if they are not known.
...

There's a lot more if you follow the link. Perhaps Sh. Khalfan should do a little more listening to the medical experts and a little less firing from the hip.

What's the story with Bank Muscat?

I know this MSM stuff is getting a little boring for many of you. Sorry. So I'll just note how the market fell again ~3% today to less than 7900, as markets in the region and world wide continued to drop by large amounts.

But, on top of the overall doom and gloom on the markets in general, something very strange is happening to one of Oman's largest companies: Bank Muscat.
In the last 3 weeks the share price has plummeted almost 40%, now down to around 1.12 rial from a peak a few months ago over 2.13 rial. Ouch. The French bank Societe Generale were certainly right to bail out of their 15% shareholding at around 1.82. The Royal Court, as holders of ~40% of the shares after they picked up the French's share, must have lost (on paper) about US$1 billion in the past few months.

The price/earnings ratio is now about 10, assuming they can still maintain a ~100 million profit this year.

Why such a huge drop? Does anyone have a view? [Muscati??]

Is there some hidden liability to Leman Brothers or the other sub-prime meltdowns? Or is it just the implication for profits from the expected increase in loan defaults as the MSM market tanks and, along with it, the fall in the prices of Omani land and houses (also severely over-inflated)? Many people are having to sell property to cover margin calls on the falling market, or even sell out to limit the losses. And a big structural problem for Banks in Oman is the mis-match between the term of their liabilites (many short term deposits) and their assets (long term loans and other assets). Is Bank Muscat bleeding cash as the market falls?

Curious. I don't know if there's an official deposit insurance scheme for Omani banks, but there is NO WAY the Government would allow BM to fail.

Is the MSM bottoming out?

For the past 2 days, the MSM index has been trading basically flat. The pension funds try to push the index up at the start of the day, followed by selling and slow decline.

Perhaps no-one has many shares left to sell?

The index reached its lowest point ever this year of 8,069.480 yesterday during trading, and is again at a new low closing for the year of 8,181.720. My post on Sept 2nd taking of 8,000 is looking scarily prophetic. You can compare with the latest 3 yr trend.

If oil price stays OK, this market must be nearing bottom, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong and it'll keep going to 7,000 (although I can't believe the Government would allow that..). remember that even right now the index is still 23% UP on 12 months ago. If the market picks up, just don't expect 50% returns going forward... trade the bounces. And stick to big, quality companies with plenty of liquidity, like I keep saying.

2 Murders in Oman, more Brothels busted

Shock & scandal!

Reported today were 2 murders in Oman. At least reported in the Gulf papers, naturally. See the Khaleej Times. I couldn't find anything in the Oman English papers on line. Did anyone see anything in the Arabic press??? Instead they report a series of total non-news stories, as usual.

First was an Omani man killed, suspected of being murdered by his wife. Although there are no details in the press, rumour is the wife allegedly was a bit miffed because he married a second wife. (There's a lesson for you chaps...)

MUSCAT – A woman has been arrested in Mudhaibi in Oman for allegedly murdering her husband with the help of a third person. Public Prosecution Attorney Fahd bin Masoud Al Balushi said police were investigating the case, but did not give names of the victim or the accused.

The man died after being hit on the head, and his body was later found in a nearby water well, Balushi was quoted as saying by local newspapers on Saturday. The woman was considered as the prime suspect, he added.
...

The second incident sounds like a real interesting one with touches of Romeo and Juliet, after the girl appealed to the court to let her marry a boy despite the objections of her family, and a crowd of guys stormed into a court and killed someone with a Khanjar. Wow. It doesn't say if the victim was the fiancee or not. But clearly a lot of passion.

14 September 2008
MUSCAT –
...
In another incident, in Samad Al Shan, Sharqiya region, a man was killed and 10 others injured in a dispute over a marriage proposal. The crime occurred in the local Primary Court. The man, an Omani citizen, was killed with a khanjar (dagger) and 10 others were injured in the brawl.

A police team found a firearm, bullets, sticks and daggers in the cars of the suspects. Eighteen people have been arrested. Investigations revealed that the daughter of one of the accused sought the assistance of the court in marrying a man of her choice who was not acceptable to her relatives. As the girl and her fiancé were at the court, a group of men rushed into the court and a fighting began during which one among the group was killed.
...

And lastly, several brothels, again run by those pesky 'Asians', were busted. Gulf News: Police smash vice ring in Muscat

Muscat: The Public Prosecutor's office, says that they have uncovered a case of runaway housemaids being lured into prostitution.

Without naming nationalities or numbers, Prosecution Attorney Ahmad Bin Talib Al Jabri said in a statement issued by the Public Prosecution Department that a case has been transferred to the Primary Court in Muscat against a group of people for allegedly running prostitution cells in the country.

"The suspects have admitted their involvement in the crimes," he added. The Public Prosecution Department raided some houses in Muscat, where men and women were found to be practising prostitution. Public Prosecution Attorney Ahmad Bin Said Al Jahwari, who interrogated the suspects, explained that the suspects encouraged housemaids to run away from their sponsors and work for the group as prostitutes. The Public Prosecution Department has urged owners of rented houses to report any such misuse of their properties.

For those interested in how utterly useless the papers are in Oman for actually finding out anything interesting, here are the local headlines from the Observer today, the output achieved by our valiant and hard working 4th Estate, following the arduous use of the copy and paste function on press releases and the wire services...

Local Stories on 14th September

Al Azhar university official received
German cargo ship heads for Oman after release by Somali pirates
TRA unit wins ISO-9001
4th Nawras Goodwill Journey kicks off
Oman Mobile signs mobile spam code
Incredible India show to be held at LuLu hypermarkets
BSM students among Edexcel’s top 10
GCC central banks meet
Unlimited SMS, voice and video calls for Nawras postpaid customers
More demand for fruits and vegetables
Information session on GUtech courses, scholarships today
Tamil album launch on Wednesday