After Cyclone Phet - the aftermath, the clean up, and the learnings. Oh, and Essa rants about Israel (shock)

Cyclone Phet
In the end, at least as far as Muscat is concerned, Cyclone Phet was nowhere near as nasty as Gonu, neither in duration, wind speed, rain nor impact. For the town of Sur it was probably worse, as Sur was directly under the eye of the storm as it grazed the eastern most tip of Oman. Sur had a record of over 40cm of water recorded. The town was mostly underwater by Friday pm.

And pity the unfortunate villages of Quriat and Tiwi, hit hard by both Gonu and now by Phet.

Deaths
The latest official number of deaths due to Cyclone Phet was 24, as of this morning's Times of Oman. The low death toll was helped by the cyclone pretty much missing the more densely populated Batinah coast (of which Muscat is the south-eastern part); the advanced warning being taken more seriously by offials and populace alike; and learnings from Gonu. The official evacuation of Masirah Island and the Eastern Coast saved a lot of lives.

Official deaths from Gonu were just 49, but this number was an early one, never officially updated, and reliable unofficial numbers of Gonu deaths range from at least 500 to over 1500. So, it does seem on this score Phet was a lot better than Gonu.

This time most of the deaths were due to local people who were drowned in Wadis (either unknowingly there or stupidly going to watch the floods). I guess many locals surprisingly don't know what a flash flood is. Perhaps this is a side effect of urbanisation. A few more were killed attempting to drive cars across flowing wadis, in the mistaken belief that a Toyota 4x4 (or even Echo) is the hydrodynamic equal of an amphibious 50 tonne tank.



Photo: A Russian T90 can cross standing water. Note the many features that are unlike a Toyota Echo.

A few other unfortunate people got electricuted, probably caused by the useless standards of most Omani houses' electrical systems, and the fact that windows and roofs here are designed or at least 'engineered' (and I use the term loosely) to be ... er, sand proof, rather than water tight.


Oil & Gas
Even Gonu had little impact on oil production, but the Phet effect was even less. My sources in PDO, and official statements. confirm oil production was unaffected. There was a pause of a couple of days of oil export, from crude tankers being able to load because of the 4m swells, but crude oil exports resumed this afternoon as normal. There was no real damage to any key oil infrastructure. Petroleum Development Oman had learned a lot from Gonu and was apparently well prepared.

The 3 big LNG trains at Sur were shut down just in time. I don't know the extent of the damage, but as long as nothing big happened, there will be no impact on LNG export volumes to Korea either. The 3 trains (2 Oman LNG, 1 Khalhat LNG) have 20%++ excess capacity (their capacity is constrained by available gas supply provided by the Government) and as a result will be able to catch up for any shut down quite quickly.

Gas supply to the coast and power generation was also not impacted.


Communication
People who watch Oman TV and read Arabic got a few days notice and almost constant updates (including video footage) once the cyclone started to impact Oman. During Gonu the Government seemed to think that not telling anybody anything would somehow ... I don't know, make it all go away or something? This time officials seemed willing to accept that mother nature was bending us over the table.

But a LOT of the expat community knew almost nothing about the coming cyclone until Wednesday or even Thursday. This state of affairs needs correcting fast Ministry of Information. At least (the now 2 one State, one private) English radio stations were giving regular updates (if pretty bland). But anything in Hindi, Urdu and Tagalog - niet.

The Meterological Office could do to find someone with actual fluent English to go on radio. Official English TV news every day at 8:30pm may be OK normally, but in a crisis this needs changing to a minute or two hourly. English subtitles would help in general.

That the hit counter here at Muscat Confidential went through the roof (4000+ page views a day vs. a typical day's 1200), presumably represented mainly people desperate just to get news of Cyclone Phet. As such my numbers may more represent the dirth of reliable english language Government info than the core popularity of Muscat Confidential. (But hey, a lot of those visitors ended up joining the excellent MC Facebook fan page, so I'm not complaining.)

Government use of the internet could improve a lot to help get info across, in an age where even semi-smart phones can surf. There was 1 txt in the whole 3 days, just giving phone numbers for search and rescue. 1 lousy text.

Well done to OmanHel and Nawras for keeping the 3G+ networks going all the way through though.

Infrastructure
This was hopefully a damn good wake up call to the Government for getting a move on with completing the long delayed earth works and other projects triggered by the catastrophe of Gonu (it was, afterall, 3 friggin' years ago!). If Phet had hit us full on - as a Cat 1 or 2 Cyclone (while Gonu was just a severe tropical storm) - things would not be so pretty. Let's not even think of a Cat 4 or 5...

Existing dams are inadequate and their slip-ways totally unable to handle the debris and water volume of such storms. In their present state, in a big storm, the dams would be a danger, not a help.

The big wadi crossing motorways are not finished. The main Batinah wadis (Qurm, Adai, Ghubra, etc) have not been turned into proper, deep, concrete lined mega-drainage ditches to the ocean.

People continue to be allowed to build significant new buildings in the major wadis and flood plains because of wasta and ill-defined rules.

The airport could have been closed for a long time, and can the new one being built really handle 300mm per day of rain for 2 or 3 days?

There is little weather-proof core redundancy in the power grid. Etc etc etc.

Oman these days is obviously in a period of world weather when we should expect such cyclones regularly. Gonu was not a 'one in a 100 year' event. We get cyclones now chaps. Better start dealing with it with proper engineering.


Overall - we were just lucky. There remains a huge amount to be done to prepare for the next Cyclone, some of it (like the communications) can be done almost instantly.

It's time to get on with it.


In other news,
Essa indeed spent his ghost-written weekly rant on the shameful and incompetent Israeli attack on the Gaza Flotilla. Not on the death toll on the roads, not on the Cyclone, not on the poor state of Omani employment, nor our pitifully poor education system; not on the lack of any meaningful support to Gaza by Oman or in fact by any Arab nation. (note, Hamas is not really a big fan of the Gulf States either). No, not even an incisive view on the imminent largest bankruptcy in Oman's history (Blue City).

He also blames the US for the attack.

People might like to consider the main provider of aid to Gaza: the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA.

... the chief U.N. agency in Gaza is the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA. Love or hate it--and I am no fan--UNRWA, according to its website, is "the main provider of basic services--education, health, relief and social services--to 4.7 million registered Palestine refugees in the Middle East." Many of those Palestinians live in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank. But Gaza is the core of this operation. UNRWA‘s headquarters are in Gaza, where 1.1 million Palestinians--the bulk of Gaza's population--are registered on UNRWA's refugee rolls and eligible for its services.

UNRWA gets 98% of its funding from voluntary donations, mostly from U.N. member states. Turkey looks like a great candidate to be a big donor. In 2008 Turkey's economy was ranked by the World Bank as the 17th largest on the planet. Given the Turkish government's professed interest in the welfare of Palestinians, you might suppose that Turkey would be among the top 10 state donors to UNRWA? Or at least the top 20?

Turkey doesn't even make the cut.

The largest donor to UNRWA is the U.S., which in 2009, according to UNRWA's statistics, gave $268 million. Next is the European Commission, which in 2009 gave $232.7 million. Together, the U.S. and E.U. account for almost half of all UNRWA funding. Other major donors include the U.K., Spain, Canada, Japan, Switzerland and Germany. Or, if you want to measure in terms of donations per capita, notes UNRWA on its website, "Scandinavian countries top the list," with Sweden in 2009 giving $48.6 million, Norway $39 million and Denmark $19.9 million.

Among UNRWA's top 20 donors for 2009, there are only two countries from the Middle East: Kuwait, which in 2009 gave $35.5 million, and Saudi Arabia, with $27.6 million.
...

From Defend Democracy.org

Oman, by the way, in 2009 donated a grand total of $930,700 bucks, the equivalent of less than 2% of just 1 day's worth of our oil production. The full list of 2009 donors is here.


So that's alright then. Cheap printed polemic really helps feed the starving kids of Gaza, doesn't it?

False Gonu II rumours again - Don't Panic

Just in case you hear more rumours blowing around about another Gonu II risk yet again...

Yes, there is a 'tropical disturbance', a long way south of Salalah at present, not currently rated as being very likely to turn worse.

here's the latest image from the American Navy JTWC

The tropical disturbance is the white spinny thing marked 'poor'.

There IS a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean, but in the southern Indian Ocean. That's the thing marked 'TC01S'.

Nothing to worry about at all just yet folks.

Cyclone Risk downgraded to 'Poor'. Nizwa wells drying up.

The chances of a cyclone developing over the next few days near Oman has been downgraded to 'Poor' by the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The winds are not allowing the tropical depression to strengthen, and wind speeds are dropping. For details see Weather Blog.

So for now, we're OK. There may be some high clouds and moderate winds over the next few days, maybe even some showers, but its nothing to panic about.

The rain in Nizwa yesterday is just that - a bit of rain. Which they need badly. There is effectively no Government water in the whole Nizwa area lately. People are having to buy it from trucks, if they can afford it. Many houses and Mosques in Nizwa just don't have water.

Meanwhile, here's a great pic a friend sent me, taken in April near a Texas oil rig. How would you like to see this out your bedroom window?

Just a little bit of history repeating? Tropical Cyclone formation alert issued

Just in from the weather geeks and the US Navy, who have upgraded the chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the next 24hrs off the Omani coast to 'good', and have posted a tropical cyclone formation alert, but not yet a warning. The timing - exactly 1 year after Gonu hit - is somewhat spooky even the Dragon admits.

Hmmmm. Lets keep an eye on this the next few days. You can see a picture of it here.

God damn it. I don't mind getting a few days off and my house is high on a ridge, but, seriously. Nothing much has been done to improve the drainage has it. And I have many friends who got flooded last time.

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 66.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 042120Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DIS-
TURBANCE IS AIDING SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. ... STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, REINFORCING RECENT LOW
LEVEL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. ...
BASED ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION, AND WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

Maybe another storm - again

OK team. Sorry to bore you on Gonu II, Son of Gonu, but its a pretty important issue.

A contributor sent me a link to this great site of a major weather geek in the US: The International Weather Blog. This guy is into weather forecasting and numerical modeling in a big way. Cool. Check out the photo. He's the geek from central casting, which appeals to my stereotypical bias. Somehow I trust him more than if the picture was a gorgeous blond or an old white guy with a suit and executive hair.

He was very dismissive of the original UK based 'cyclone on the 29th' model prediction that scared everyone last week. But now he says that several numerical models are starting to predict conditions appropriate for generation of a tropical storm at least just around the time of the anniversary of Gonu, or a week later. Really. As Andy says today (last sentence best):

...Numerical forecast models are showing high pressure locking in aloft over Arabia to Iran. This is allowing for an area of "weakness" (relatively low pressure aloft) over the Arabian Sea. Broadly at least, this is in keeping with seasonal shifts. For one thing, it means that the train of easterly waves that will be watched by Atlantic hurricane forecasters can begin its seasonal trek across Africa from Ethiopia to Senegal. And it also can become the site of tropical cyclone formation.

The GFS, as of 1200 UTC, now shows a low within 72 hours west of Maldives. This could become a tropical depression, if not tropical cyclone. And the scenario shows a cyclonic whirl spinning in a slow wander over the Arabian Sea into the second week of June.

Now, for a look at the ECMWF forecast scenario. Here is the 240 hour forecast (based upon 1200 UTC Tuesday) of surface pressure and 850-mb wind speed valid 1200 UTC, Friday, June 6. We are right back where we were at about this time last week: a major tropical cyclone east of Oman. I have little to say objectively to this; however, subjectively, I believe that it is overwrought once again. Just the same, I do believe that things are fairly favorable for a tropical depression, if not moderate tropical cyclone, to arise over the Arabian Sea within the next one to two weeks.

!!!
So, if you've been working on your emergency preparedness list and fighting little old ladies for the last of the bottled water in your local supermarket this week - well done!

I'll keep you posted.

No its still not a cyclone.

The lack of water in the Omani supermarkets is testament to the fear of another Gonu II. And, hey, I stocked up on water too last week. Not because of a cyclone. Because I don't want to run out of bottled water when everyone ran out and bought it.

Some of you will be thinking: OK, you think you're so smart Mr Dragon, is it then just co-incidence that right now, its raining in Salalah!!!!!

Yes. The rain is because there was a small storm that's drifted in from offshore Yemen. You can see it on the sat pic. This is not a tropical cyclone. And, hey, its Salalah. They often catch a piece of one of the chain of monsoon storms constantly rolling across the Indian Ocean from the NE tip of Africa across to India at this time of the year. You can see them beautifully on the Infrared satellite here.

The Muscat area, and the area that generated Gonu last year, is still totally clear of anything remotely looking like a cyclone.

Although, now the UK peaple who mis-predicted a possible cyclone are now apparently predicting another one. Hmmm. Maybe they'd notice the first one didn't appear. And maybe their model needs correcting???

If Gonu II does appear, you'll have at least 2-3 days warning people.

Gonu II fears continue to boost water sales

Well, I guess the Met Office could do to improve its communications with the ordinary citizens. Supermarkets again today are seeing huge demand for bottled water and Pharmacies for medicines as people stock up in expectation of a storm. As I've said, that's probably not a bad idea generally. People are rightly worried, and most I guess can't watch the sat picture for themselves via the net. As of now there is no sign at all of anything on the sat pic. But a decent front page story giving the reasons why the met office can be so confident might help the less sophisticated members of society to avoid listening to the astrologers and other wackos.

Just remember if you are taking the time to build an emergency kit (see earlier post) to regularly replace expired items (like water and food). A lot of the key long term stuff you can put in plastic zip lock bags or labled garbage bags and pack into a large plastic bin with a lid, and keep it in a store room safe for when you might need it. Print off a list of the other items so you can run through a check list and not forget anything at the last minute.

Todays story in Times of Oman: Relief as Met office allays fears of cyclone

Sunday, May 25, 2008 1:15:38 AM Oman Time
MUSCAT — The Directorate-General of Meteorology and Air Navigation has reassured residents of Oman that there is no weather event of significance that could affect the Sultanate on May 27, as was reported by some local newspapers last week.

The Directorate-General has also said that it is constantly monitoring weather activities over the Arabian Sea using satellite imagery, numerical weather products and observation data.

The Dubai Meteorological Office is also not forecasting a tropical storm for the region and forecasters say they have not received any advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre which monitors the world’s oceans for such events.

“We have been seeing some unsettled weather in Socotra Island in southeast of Yemen. There’s some cloud and thunderstorms there which could be triggering the other warning, but nothing we would recognise as a tropical storm,” a forecaster said.

However, the Met office would be “keeping an eye on developments”, he added.

Omani Cyclone Emergency kit

A suggested Omani Household Cyclone Emergency Kit. Please add any suggestions for things I’ve missed by posting a comment!

OK, everyone is still worried about a cyclone. Apparently bread was out of stock yesterday, and certainly the supermarkets were doing an especially busy day. To help you prepare for the yet to actually appear cyclone, here’s a list of things you’ll need to be self sufficient for a week. It’ll also be useful if Oman has a big earthquake too, or just the usual big rain spell… Hopefully the list will remind you of things you’d otherwise forget.

Emergency List
Drinking water (at least 8 litres per person per day for a week)
Canned food, rice, coffee and sugar
Some fresh bread and vegatables
Can opener!
UHT milk (small packets)
Baby formula and pet food if required
Portable stove & spare gas
Basic pans, cooking utensils and cutlery
Disposable aluminium containers
Garbage bags
Torches and lots of spare batteries
Matches
First aid kit & any regular medication (insulin!), multi-vitamins
Toiletries - include toilet paper, nappies, baby wipes and sanitary products)
Panadol
Water free hand cleaner/disinfectant
Mobile phones, important numbers and some credit recharge cards
Spare mobile phone battery (charged!)
Radio (battery powered, with spare batteries)
Tarpaulin & wadi mat
Buckets, medium sized plastic bags & loo paper (emergency toilet)
Bucket and dish soap
Masking tape/duct tape (for X on windows, and emergency repairs MacGyver-style)
Jerry can petrol (plus move cars, filly gassed up, to higher ground)
Sandbags (put one sandbag into every downstairs toilet to stop reflux of sewage into your house!)
Your lap top computers, CD/DVD backups of anything important
Important documentation in zip-loc plastic bags, incl. mokia, passports, ID cards, credit cards, insurance paperwork and premiums which have been PAID, recent bank statements)
House keys and car keys
Some cash, in small bills, in zip-loc bag
A few soft carry bags & some rugged Spare clothes, esp underwear & socks,
Solid shoes
Pack of playing cards, tennis ball, copy of War & Peace.
Cigarettes, beer, whiskey and gin & tonic (ensure you have at least twice as much of these as you think you’ll need. Remember, they’ll probably be nothing else to do except smoke and drink all day)
Bottle of Clorox (a couple of drops in a litre of water sterilizes it after 10 min)

Secure family photo albums and any valuables in a big water-tight container.
Fill baths with water the day before. Make sure house water tank is full too.
If windy, tape windows in a big X and keep curtains closed.
Don’t go outside.
Secure pets.
Secure loose objects outside (like garden furniture)

Get squeegees and some flat bladed shovels for the clean-up afterwards!

The Panic Begins - Gonu II?

As if the rumours of a second Gonu weren't enough, and totally expected, the Brits have weighed in saying their computer models do predict a cyclone on May 29th.
Maybe. But that they don't make predictions for ordinary people, and we should ask Oman, ie DGCAM. This has got the nation into a rumour frenzy today.
The current satellite pics, and the typhoon warning centre show nothing right now. The official version from the Government scotching the rumour, and with the Brits changing their statement, is at the bottom here.

Dragon's advice: Keep checking the excellent (and free - thanks America!) US Navy Typhoon Warning site here and the infrared sat here.

And don't panic.

But as lots of other people ARE going to panic, you may want to buy some cases of water now. You can always drink it later. And you all already have a storm kit anyhow, right? With batteries, torches, a spare charged mobile phone battery, some emergency food, etc? And an evacuation plan.

But it begs the question: how usual does weather have to be to cease being unusual?...
Gulf News

Weather bureau warns of repeat of Cyclone Gonu in Oman
By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief
Last updated: May 20, 2008, 18:01

Muscat: Less than a year after Cyclone Gonu devastated the coast of Oman, a UK-based international weather bureau has predicted that another tropical storm could hit Oman and Yemen at the end of May. This time the forecast of landfall of the cyclone is on May 29 around Oman/Yemen coast.

A senior official at the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) confirmed that they have initial reports about the possibility of a storm.
“We are in preparedness,” Badr Al Rumhi of DGMAN told Gulf News on Tuesday. He, however, did not elaborate.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the onset phase of this year’s monsoon could feature a cyclone in the west Arabian Sea.

However, when contacted in London, Manfred Kloeppel, Assistant to Director, ECMWF, said: “We do not issue any warnings ourselves to any states in the world but make our products available in particular to our Member and Co-operating States.” Kloeppel further added that the forecast last Monday (May 19) showed a system developing and hitting Oman on 28 May. “This not so prominent in Tuesday’s forecast,” he added. He also clarified that ECMWF do not forecast a cyclone to hit the Gulf states, although "there clearly is still some potential for this to happen."

He added that the message from the forecast was that such a development might happen, but one must wait and see what happens in the next forecasts, a task, he stressed, was with the National Meteorological Services.

The forecast states that “the system is forecast to develop in the west central Arabian Sea and is expected to make a landfall over the Yemen/Oman coast around May 29.” It further states that the timing of the ‘cyclogenesis’ (birth of a cyclone) and the path for onward movement would resemble those of tropical Cyclone Gonu, which killed 48 people when it struck Oman on June 6 last year.

The only redeeming feature, according to ECMWF, would be that this time the storm would be comparatively at a reduced strength...

The meteorology office (DGCAM)- the only official weather information source in Oman - has of course dispelled the rumour, as they claim that an accurate forecast could be provided only 78 hours in advance. "Citizens are urged not to believe in rumours, unconfirmed stories and create panic situations" Times of Oman

MUSCAT — The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has withdrawn the cyclone watch in the Arabian Sea apparently in the face of invading westerly systems sweeping the northern fringes of the basin one after the other.

The cyclone watch put out on Monday had depicted a system of moderate strength making a landfall over Oman/Yemen around May 29.

But the latest seven-day forecasts valid from yesterday did not indicate any significant weather event for the region.

The Times of Oman office was flooded with phone calls after a television station based in India reported a possibility of a cyclone in the west Arabian Sea, with the ECMWF expecting a yet-to-be-born rogue circulation to spin up to class-matching strength. When we contacted an official at the Directorate-General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, he ruled out any possibility at this juncture and added that an accurate forecast could be provided only 78 hours in advance. He also urged the citizens not to believe in rumours, unconfirmed stories and create panic situations.

Anniversary of cyclone Gonu vs Myanmar

The current situation in Myanmar is proving to be an interesting ‘compare and contrast’ exercise with Oman’s recent cyclone Gonu.

Nowadays the cyclone is only referred to by the media within Oman by the semantic phrases ‘unusual weather conditions’ or ‘last year’s adverse weather conditions’. [For examples, see a recent article in the Pulitzer prize-winning Times of Oman, or the incisive Oman Tribune.] Presumably this re-writing of history is so as not to frighten the tourists and avoid an increase in the insurance premiums of the Wave, Yeti, Sifa or the countless other ocean front developments (all of which could get hit really hard by another tropical cyclone, should one appear).

The 1 year anniversary of tropical cyclone Gonu, for that is what it was, will be on June 6th. Will the anniversary be ignored, or used to remind everyone how absolutely fantastic all the Government’s emergency response efforts were, with some parades and more medals for the great and the good? As far as I know, officially only 49 people died. While rumours abound that the actual number killed or never found was more than a thousand.

Or will the date be used to highlight the current state of recovery in Quriyat and Sur, Tiwi and Wadi Shams, Ras Al Had? And the lack of any significant improvement to the storm drainage of the capital?

Interesting though, how when Oman refuses immediate emergency aid from other countries after a cyclone [oops, I meant to say unusual weather] it's naturally a good thing, done only to test the countries true emergency response capability (which of course they passed with flying colours. Nothing could have been done better or faster, and no outside help was needed). This was effectively clarified in the interview His Majesty gave recently.

But when Myanmar refuses immediate emergency aid from other countries after a cyclone, everyone seems to agree they are a country being run by arrogant dictatorial idiots needlessly exposing innocent people to further depravation...

Hmmmm.

I sincerely hope another Gonu does not spoil the party this summer. The country seems just as unprepared as it was before, with no significant improvements to critical infrastructure or drainage. Oh, I forgot, we have built a lot more buildings in the Wadis of Qurm and Seeb though, so that'll be great…

News on Oman's secret cyclone, our new taxation plan, and naughty Iranians

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, just released its latest annual Public Information Note [PIN] following discussions with the Oman Government. Apart from the stuff about banking and inflation, and how the Government needs to use fiscal policy to control it (ie the Government needs to rein back its growth in spending), there were two real nuggets.

The first highlights the very strange way last year's Cyclone Gonu is reported here.

Here’s the Oman Press version of the opening paragraph, as printed in the outstanding Times of Oman

IMF Praise for Oman growth
Oman’s economic performance during 2007 was strong. The economy withstood well the impact of last year’s unusual weather conditions and real GDP grew by 6.4 per cent, supported by high oil prices and rapid growth of non-hydrocarbon sectors such as petrochemicals, trade, and transport and communications, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a recent report on Oman.

Well, actually, that’s not quite true, is it Times Of Oman, because that’s not what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) actually said in their recent report on Oman. Here’s the IMF version

Oman's economic performance during 2007 was strong. The economy withstood well the impact of the June cyclone and real GDP grew by 6.4 percent, supported by high oil prices and rapid growth of non-hydrocarbon sectors such as petrochemicals, trade, and transport and communications.

Note how The Times (and all other Omani papers) have changed June Cyclone to last year’s unusual weather conditions? It was always a bit Orwellian how, sometime later last year, all mention of a cyclone, Gonu, and the cause of the damage it did was replaced with the magically semantic phrase unusual weather.

The second piece, again totally unhighlighted by Oman’s extremely perceptive press corps, was that Oman is apparently planning to institute a value added taxation system.

Directors called on the authorities to restrain the growth of wages and transfers, phase the implementation of lower-priority projects. They encouraged the authorities to reduce over time the implied subsidy on petroleum products, and supported efforts to increase non-oil revenues through the introduction of a value-added tax.

Hmmm. A value added tax, also known as a goods and services tax, will be extremely regressive. That means that families who spend most of their income will face a much higher effective marginal tax rate than rich families who either save and invest money or spend it overseas. Perhaps Oman will choose to implement a more distorting (and more expensive to administer) VAT whereby food for example is excluded. Lets see. But interesting that we have to find out about this through the IMF...

Iranians caught supplying Iraqis with arms.
Well, no surprise there I guess. The Americans have been claiming since last year that the road-side explosive devices being used had reached levels of sophistication that indicated Iranian military support. It will be interesting to see how the Gulf countries react to clear proof of active Iranian support for the insurgency in Iraq.

Iraq shows proof of Iranian support for militants

BAGHDAD An Iraqi delegation in Iran has confronted Iranian security officials with evidence that Teheran is providing support for militias battling Iraqi government forces, an Iraqi official said on Friday.

"They presented a list of names, training camps and cells linked to Iran," Haidar Al Ibadi, a member of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki's Dawa party, said.

"The Iranians did not confess or admit anything. They claim they are not intervening in Iraq and they feel they are being unfairly blamed for everything going on Iraq," he said of the talks, which took place on Thursday. Ibadi said he had been in contact with the delegation.

Washington has long accused Teheran of backing militias, particularly cleric Moqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi Army, providing them with weapons, funding and training. It has displayed some of the weapons, including rockets and mortars.

The Iraqi government, however, has generally been more restrained in its criticism of its neighbour, which denies the charges and says it supports the government.

The US military said this week that "very, very significant" amounts of Iranian weaponry had been found in Basra and Baghdad during offensive against militants. Some of those arms were made in 2008, a senior US military official said on Friday.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there had been a "sea change" in Baghdad's view of Iranian activity in Iraq since the discovery of the weapons.

"Basra changed it for the Iraqis. I'm not sure they believed it before. But they went to Basra and saw it first hand," he said.