H1N1 gets closer, but all seems OK so far...

Sometimes this H1N1/swine flu seems like it was just a conspiracy to sell all that excess stock of close-to-expiry-date Tamiflu that Governments around the world accumulated during the bird flu threat. So far H1N1 does not seem anything worse than typical flu. I hope it stays that way!

The GCC now has some confirmed cases, and Muscat Airport are screening people's temperatures on arrival with infra-red. We will get a case here eventually. Meanwhile keep washing hands regularly and avoid touching your face. Carry a small bottle of hand sanitiser with you. Its good advise even without swine flu - there are plenty of other potential nasties out there anyhow.

You can get a great map on H1N1's progress around the world here.


Pic: Swine flu - Google maps is a great tool for interactive mapping...

It didn't help either that the Ministry of Health sent a general spam SMS in Arabish that sort of implied (at least to native English speakers) that we had had our first case in Oman. It was the talk of the town on Thursday... Here's the helpful SMS

"Oman is free from H1N1 Flu (previously known as Swine Flu) til today. The Ministry of Health is closely monitring the situation and is prepared for response... Flu Hotline 99851003"

Meanwhile, friendly local law firm Curtis Oman have posted about the details of Oman's recent Emergency Powers Decree of last year on their rather useful website for things legal.

The law states:

State of Emergency Law
...
First, the law provides that the state of emergency may be declared when the security and public order is subject to a dangerous situation. This may include any situation posing a threat to society or state security. Examples of such situations include:

• War or threat of war;

• Internal criminal disturbances;

• Public calamity; or
• The spread of an epidemic or plague.
The state of emergency declaration is made through a Royal Order specifying the emergency situation, the area covered and the date of effect.

Second, the law requires the National Security Council to issue orders to protect safety and public order. It also provides additional authority to the government to respond to the emergency. For example, during the state of emergency the National Security Council may issue orders to the Royal Oman Police to take the following emergency response measures:

• Restrict individual liberties and rights to move, reside, and pass through specific locations at certain times;
• Take into custody anyone threatening public order;
• Specify timings and require closure of public places;
• Monitor all kinds of correspondence and information, and seize, confiscate, or destroy the correspondence and information;
• Evacuate or isolate certain regions, including by closing roads;
• Temporarily acquire any property;
• Utilize services of any person, depending on the functions that are required in the situation; and
• Prohibit employees from leaving work.
The law provides that the government will give reasonable remuneration if it temporarily acquires property or utilizes the services of any person to respond to the emergency.
...

The law also allows for the National Security Council to involk the use of the Army if required too.

Monetary Union for GCC - except Oman - but agreement on VAT

Nice to see some actual progress at the AGCC conference, because it seems the old story on a GCC wide, including Oman, Value Added Tax [VAT] continues to rumble along, and as the only viable effective income tax the Governments can introduce at this stage in the GCC economic development. This according to HE Mr. Macki quoted in the Gulf News. A VAT will also force the Government to have significantly more information and control over the internal economy especially, with the need to apply VAT credits for VAT paid on a business' purchases, and payment of taxes on ts sales. There is a lot of paper involved in VAT, so more jobs for civil servants too.

In addition, as long as average oil prices stay over $45 this year, the budget will be subsidised by the State reserve fund, and there's a reasonably good chance of that if OPEC implement their cuts. Good to see Oman's production up too.



Photo www.daylife.com2 months ago: Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf (L) and Minister of National Economy and Deputy Chairman for Financial Affairs of Oman Ahmed bin Abdul Nabi Macki talk upon their arrival for a meeting in Riyadh October 25, 2008



He makes the fair point that the tourism sector is growing at a good clip it would seem, but then again, it's coming from a very low baseline and still only accounts for less than 3% of GDP. Given the huge investments being made, I'm not sure I find 23% growth very good. If any sector, Construction must have boomed in 2008.

Expenditure will grow and salaries are safe, he said. All in all, I agree with Minister Macki that 2009 will be relatively benign for Oman, especially in contrast to many other parts of the world. The rapid reduction in growth will catch a few businesses with inventory problems, and the market price for construction equipment should drop. Together with the soon to feed through drops in global prices for almost everything, especially cement, shipping, steel and food, construction should continue to do well.

The only big exposures for Oman will be the oil price, naturally, and the continued plan to remain fixed to the dollar. The dollar looks like it will face a big correction sometime in 2009, and is already down 10% or so of late, [but after the big recovery of the dollar rate in 2008 that we are all enjoying right now when we repatriate funds!]

The big question for me: I wonder if in his original speech he actually said 'Cyclone Gonu', or did he say 'unusual weather conditions'...?

Omani reserves will cover deficits

By Sunil K.Vaidya, Bureau Chief
Published: January 03, 2009, 23:19

Muscat: Ahmad Bin Abdul Nabi Macki, minister of National Economy and Supervisor of the ministry of Finance, yesterday said that any deficit caused by oil prices dropping below $45 a barrel would be covered by emergency reserve funds as well as restructuring the project plans.

"We will not touch salaries as we look for cuts if the oil price drops below $45," he said during a press conference after announcing the state's general budget for 2009 prepared with the oil price estimated at $45. He said that Oman has in the recent past targeted tourism as one of the main sector in governments bid for economic diversification.

Tourism
"The tourism sector continues to grow and is expected to realise a growth rate of 22.3 per cent by virtue of the increase in lodging capacities in the country and efforts exerted to market Oman as a tourism destination," he said.

...

He also announced that people affected by tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, especially along the Batinah coast, would get 2,200 housing units as part of the first phase, expected to cost of 339 million Omani riyals (Dh3.39 billion).

The total expenditure for the financial year 2009, he revealed, was estimated at about 6.4 billion Omani riyals against 5.8 billion riyals in 2008.

GCC endorses VAT
Ahmad Bin Abdul Nabi Macki, Oman's minister of National Economy and supervisor of the Finance ministry, deputy chairman in the Financial Affairs and Energy Resources Council, has said that the introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) was a joint GCC decision.

He also added that the study to introduce VAT in the GCC countries was underway to compensate for the loss of revenue following the Customs Union and Common market introduction.

In reply to a question he said: "There are no plans to introduce any other taxes."

Happy New Year, and GCC Conference tells off Israel

OK – it’s a new year. People are generally back at work today, and life in the Sultanate proceeds to return to normal now the AGCC conference is over and we have our roads, coast, and hotels (and their associated bars and restaurants!!) back. The weather is, if anything, a little on the cool side, and that bloody red tide is still stopping decent swimming in the sea. If this period of red tide (must be 2 months now?) is going to be the norm, Oman can forget about coastal resort tourism as a growth business!

And I’m back to the blog after a short break, much enjoyed.

The big issue of late – dominating the GCC publicity machine, and in the country at large – is the continued and rapidly escalating war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza strip.

Hamas keeps sending rockets into Israel, Israel responds with aerial bombardment and border closures, Hamas sends more rockets, … (repeat endlessly). All the signs now are that Israel is bombing the crap out of north Gaza in preparation for a ground attack with troops and tanks. Meanwhile, Hamas are hunkered down in their bunkers, relatively safe from most of the bombing, and busy trying to beef up their stockpiles of ammunition and heavy armaments ahead of the anticipated ground invasion, with materiel smuggled through their tunnels connecting Gaza and Egypt, tunnels which Israel keeps trying to bomb too.

So, the GCC naturally discussed the Israel/Gaza issue and issued their totally weak communiqué, packed full of 'deep concern', lofty ‘calls’ and ‘urges’, while lacking any actual unilateral action. Expect more of the same from the Arab League.


Photo: GCC Leaders agreeing to give Israel a very big telling off, and to ask it to please stand in the naughty corner (but only if that wouldn't be too much trouble).


Wow, the Israelis must be quaking in their boots after this missive…

Gulf leaders ask Israel to end Gaza massacre
By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief
Published: December 30, 2008, 23:46

Muscat: Leader of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) strongly condemned the barbaric Israeli aggression on the Palestinian people in Gaza and held Israel responsible for taking the situation to a dangerous level.

In the final communique of the 29th GCC Summit concluded in Muscat yesterday, the council voiced deep concern over the flagrant Israeli offensive, which led to a large number of deaths and injuries, destruction of properties and terrorising civilians with no consideration for ethics, humanity or international legitimacy resolutions.

The council called on Israel to stop its brutal aggression against the unarmed Palestinian people and end the unfair siege imposed on all Palestinian territories, including Gaza.

It urged the international community to take immediate action to stop massacres and tyrannical practices by the Israeli military machinery. The council also called on the international community to provide the necessary protection for the Palestinian people who endure all forms of atrocities and oppression due to Israel's stubborn policies and inhuman practices.

The council called on all Palestinian factions to unite their ranks, as national unity is the shield and the sole means to protect the Palestinian people and regain their legitimate rights, including the establishment of an independent state with (occupied) Jerusalem as its capital.

The GCC leaders held Israel responsible for the deterioration of the peace process due to its tight siege on the Palestinians, especially in Gaza, confiscation of lands and construction of colonies, the building of apartheid wall and its ongoing excavations under the Al Aqsa mosque.

The GCC also called on the international community to provide necessary protection for the Palestinian people.

What a joke.

The problem is that the GCC States only ever give lip-service to their declared total support for the Palestinians. Are they providing significant funding to Fatah or Hamas or the Palestinian authority? No, and certainly not Hamas. Perhaps they could provide easy access to the safe GCC countries so that lots of ordinary Palestinians could live here and work? Er, No.

Are they providing military support to the Palestinians? Or sending their Airforces and Navies to provide humanitarian aid? No, of course not!

Do they back these statements up with boycotts, sanctions, or other actual actions with teeth, rather than just talk and posturing? No. Are they perhaps taking action to pressure Egypt to provide support for Gaza? No. Are they pressuring the USA to act more strongly? No.

Just a telling-off (aka ‘strong condemnation’) to Israel and more whining to the UN Security Council. Sure, they allow their tightly controlled press to bitch about Israel/USA, and also allow (limited) street protests in support of Gaza. Oh, and the King of Bahrain cancelled his country’s New Year celebrations in support of the Palestinians. Wow, that’ll really make them feel better in Gaza with the bombs falling.

Why such hypocrisy?

Because it is in the best interests of the Gulf States that chaos reigns in Israel/Palestine. It keeps the GCC populace focused on the issue of Israel/Palestine, instead of having the time and energy to address more difficult and uncomfortable domestic issues (such as unemployment, how to meld increased democratic representation and secularism with Islam, improving the distribution of wealth and opportunity, women’s rights, unionisation, expatriate labour, etc etc etc).

While everyone hates to see bombings with civilians being killed and injured, to be frank the last thing the GCC leaders would like to see is a strong Hamas and/or Hezbollah. Hamas and Hezbollah are Islamofascists, dominated by theological ideologues rather than pragmatists. Hamas actively opposes the legitimacy of the GCC’s set of monarchs to rule their countries, and both Hamas and Hezbollah are effectively supported by Iran with money, arms and training. And remember that the brotherly state of Iran is the real enemy of the GCC - with their continued support for Shia extremists, counter claims on islands claimed by the UAE, counter-productive sabre rattling with the Americans and Israelis, periodic threats to blockade the strait of Hormuz, a regime representative of a successful Islamic revolution over a ruling Monarch, etc etc.

This general revulsion of most Arab countries to Hamas and what it stands for is why Egypt are so willing to provide the anvil against which Israel pounds Hamas in Gaza. Hamas are effectively an offshoot of the hated and illegal Muslim Brotherhood, and the last thing the rulers of Egypt (or the GCC) would do is support such an outfit. Thus, if you read the communique from the GCC you'll find lots of condemnation of Israel, but no support for Hamas. In fact, Hamas are not refered to at all except as a 'faction' who are urged to get back in line with Fatah and Abbas. LOL.

One should note that all GCC members continue to host numerous and significant American military bases:
Oman: US Airforce use RAFO bases in Thumrait, Masna’ah and Masirah, have radar and intelligence gathering stations in Musandam, plus a large strategic War Reserve Materiel (WRM) storage facility in Seeb,
Qatar:Home of the regional US Central Command base, plus a big US Airforce base at Al Udeid,
Bahrain: US 5th Fleet HQ, plus Shaikh Isa Airbase,
Kuwait: Ali Al Salem and Ahmed Al Jaber Airbases, plus 2 big US Army bases,
and of course,
Saudi: Eskan Village Airbase and several other bases.

Oh, and Jan 1st 2009 finally marks the start of the Oman/USA Free Trade agreement. And Oman certainly is not going to do anything to either impact that agreement, nor to get off on the wrong foot with the new US Administration.

Hence, a very strongly worded telling off for the Zionist Fascists, and otherwise carry on with business as usual chaps!

I expect an especially incisive Times of Oman 'Viewpoint' opinion piece from Essa tomorrow that will say how totally and unbelievably fantastic the GCC Conference was, how much great stuff was achieved (more from me on that issue tomorrow), and how evil the Israeli/US actions in Gaza are. I'll be amazed if he mentions Hamas or their rockets though...

Happy New Year everyone. Nothing's changed.

So, that’s alright then.

Happy Holidays & GCC Conference

Its more religious holidays, and yes folks, the turkey flowed as deep and wide as the champagne. The Dragon being therefore in a semi-permanent triptophane haze, no posts of late. No news either to speak of, as the swirling clouds of the GCC conference gather like something out of a Harry Potter movie, and real life is put on hold.

For those who still haven't heard via Kishor's blog, motorways are closed:
Monday 10am - 3pm
Tuesday 3pm - 8pm
With additional major jams, gridlock and hold-ups as additionally experienced.

[details, maps. etc, go to Kishore's post)

Good luck Muscat!!! I'm mainly on leave, so see you in the New Year. Best wishes 2009, etc etc.

Finally!!!

This morning I was able to log in to blogger. Yippee!

Sorry about the format thing, but posting by email screwed up the formatting somehow.

OK. Rumours around town right now of there already having been multiple terrorist threats made against the GCC conference and the hotels. No details about who.

But you can see why security will be tight, especially after Mumbai. Many friends are leaving the country for the week, just to avoid the total chaos everyone expects.

We'll see...

Muscat starts GCC Security lock down. Internet affected until New Year

Further on the big internet problem that started Friday, affecting not just Oman but, as in the story in yesterday’s Times of Oman, taking out pretty much the whole Middle East.

It seems at least 3 and maybe 5 submarine cables between Africa and Europe were severely damaged by geological activity or a fishing boat near Sicily. According to the latest update issued by OmanHel, the time to repair all the damaged cables and therefore to bring internet service to normal operation is estimated to be approximately 10 days. Meanwhile, internet speed will increase gradually as the repair effort progresses and as re-routing is performed.

So, it seems not only will we soon be trapped in our houses for a few days as visiting GCC dignitaries (and their associated posse) all move around the coast for the GCC Conference, we also won’t have much in the way of fast internet to help keep us entertained either!

The greater Muscat area is already on ‘lock down’. All cars and trucks entering the Muscat Municipality area from outside are being stopped and checked by major ROP/Army road blocks since Thursday. Security will be THE priority over the next 1 ½ weeks. Surveillance at the airport and border crossings has been increased significantly too. During the conference, roads will be closed; check points and road blocks the norm. You may see a few tanks and APCs stationed at critical points. Boats have been banned from the coastal area too, from the Hyatt Hotel all the way to Sur.

Xmas to New Year will not a good time to be going into surprise labor or to be struck by a heart attack folks!

Rather embarrassingly for the local cops given the focus on high levels of security, I’ve heard reports that last week several Yemeni prisoners who were being held at the ROP’s Qurm detention center escaped from custody, breaking out of prison complete with bright orange jump suits and still chained together. Hmmm. Perhaps not the best time to have escaped convicts from Yemen running around? No wonder the ROP were searching the area house to house. Nothing I could find on this story in the local press funnily enough, and no reports on whether or not they found the jail birds in the end… You would have though telling people they’d lost a few prisoners would be a good idea if you wanted the public to help find them, wouldn’t you? But I guess that would make it look too much like someone in Government screwed up.

Internet service badly disrupted
Times News Service
Saturday, December 20, 2008 10:58:30 AM Oman Time

MUSCAT: Internet service in Oman and other Gulf countries was badly disrupted yesterday and Omantel officials attributed failure of undersea cables in the Mediterranean Sea for the fault. Residents said Internet service was either non-existent or very slow. The gravity of the outage varied from area to area and according to the service provider.

Three cables linking Italy and Egypt failed for as yet unknown reasons, a senior Reliance GlobalCom official in Dubai said yesterday. Internet service between Europe and the Middle East was also disrupted yesterday. France Telecom said break in three undersea cables had disrupted telephone traffic between Europe and the Asia-Middle East region. The situation may not improve before Christmas Day and communications may not be back to normal until New Year’s Eve, the French company said in a statement. Shaheed Al Sateeh, Middle East sales director for Reliance GlobalCom, said: “We know three cables have been cut. We still don’t know why or where. They cover all the Middle East and India and other countries.”

“We have no more information. A ship has been sent out to locate the place where the cables were cut,” he said.

Egypt’s state news agency Mena reported that the cuts happened off the coast of Sicily at 10am (0800GMT) yesterday. Reliance GlobalCom has directed a submarine cable repair company to head to the region to fix the cables, Mena reported. The agency reported that services were being rerouted to backup cables and satellite to compensate for the failures.

The services are expected to improve by around 0330GMT today, Mena added. France Telecom said the breach happened “between Italy and Tunisia on sections linking Sicily to Egypt.”

“Traffic from Europe towards Algeria and Tunisia was not affected but from Europe towards the Middle East and Asia is more or less interrupted,” the French national telecoms operator said.

The company said it had alerted the Raymond Croze, one of its two maintenance ships present in the Mediterranean zone. France Telecom said the situation is likely to improve from December 25 and return to normal on December 31.

GCC to ban unskilled labourers after 5 years?!?

It seems the half-baked idea of GCC Labour Ministers to restrict expat unskilled labour in the GCC to no more than 5 years will be raised in a couple of weeks at the Muscat Conference. While the Bahraini minister who proposed the ban thinks the chance of endorsement is 70%, I'm not so sure.



For a start, 5 years is pretty impractical. It takes time to pay back the costs of travelling to Oman, and most labourers have a longer term plan of working for 15-20 years. Plus, the description of 'unskilled' is not really accurate. These guys do learn a lot in the first few years and as a result are more productive than someone fresh from the slums of India or Pakistan.

And of course, there are many, many jobs that Omanis simply will not (yet) do - digging holes or lugging bricks in summer, for example. Making them go home after 5 years will just lead to a pointless and expensive churn of labour. And many of the big businesses depend on this foreign labour. I'll be amazed if it passes.

Five-year cap rule for expatriates in the Gulf could be endorsed, says Bahraini official
By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief
Published: December 14, 2008, 13:51

Manama: A proposal by the GCC labour ministers to impose a cap on expatriate workers has a "good chance" of being endorsed at the forthcoming GCC summit, a Bahraini official has said.

"The suggestion to limit the stay of foreigners in a GCC country to five years has a 70 per cent chance of being approved by the GCC states at the Muscat summit this month," Majeed Al Alawi, Bahrain's Labour Minister, told Gulf News. "The chance for the proposal endorsement was only around 40 per cent when it was first made," he said.

The ban will be imposed only on unskilled workers who make up around 85 per cent of the around 13 million foreigners living in the six Gulf states.

Al Alawi has spearheaded the call to introduce the cap on unskilled expatriate labourers to help preserve the cultural, social and political identity of the region.

"With the massive presence of foreigners on their soil, the Arabian Gulf countries have a unique feature in the world. This could lead to a total alienation of the native population and the loss of the local identity," said Al Alawi, a former opposition figure who was given the labour portfolio in 2002.

Millions of foreigners, mainly unskilled workers from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, have flocked to the Gulf states since the 1970s, seeking lucrative salaries.

Blue City - Dragon Consulting offers a solution... How about Pink City?

Great Article in this weeks Economist about the way Argentina are grabbing the so-called pink tourist dollar.

I have a business suggestion in these tough times for local real estate developments. Pick one, just one, of the many beach developments going up in Oman right now, and unofficially/officially we make it, shall we say, european-metro-sexual friendly. IE Gay. Put it in Mussandam if you prefer.

Don't talk about it, ever. Heck, we control the media anyway! There'll be no need for anyone who doesn't want to know about it, to know about it, so just do it. Really, take this great opportunity to establish the best 'San Fransisco of the whole Middle East' this side of Cairo.





These guys (and gals) spend like crazy, are very well behaved generally, and usually don't have kids! They work. They're creative. They paaaarty. And, the best bit, is that the whole 'base load' can come from the GCC. Think New Orleans, think Amsterdam, think Sydney. All the great cities of the world have a vibrant gay section. The pink GCC dhiram is a very significant market. Go for it Oman. Its your country. Why the hell not?

Call it, Artistic City, if you must. Get a Cirque du Soleil (sp?) franchise, do art, design, architecture, ... come on, you get the idea!

Attract the brightest, the smartest, the richest, the most fun and dynamic people in the whole region who happen to be gay, and create something awesome. Get work done. Be tolerant. Be open minded. Be smart. Grasp the future before the rest of this region and the wealth and influence you will wield will astonish you.

Perhaps other contributors would be willing to contribute design and advertising ideas.

Argentina
Going pinker on the Plata
A new destination for gay tourists

Dec 4th 2008 | BUENOS AIRES The Economist print edition
AFP

It takes two men to tango
“FIRST you step, then you change direction. Don’t try to do both at the same time!” implores the instructor at La Marshall, a tango school in a sparsely decorated apartment in the centre of Buenos Aires. But one couple is having trouble taking any steps at all. A paunchy, middle-aged man with a shaved head awkwardly holds his partner—a much younger, thin, dark-skinned man from Australia—while attempting to shepherd him across the floor. Finally, after a few missteps, they decide to switch roles, with the slimmer man taking charge and deftly piloting his partner.

La Marshall, a predominantly same-sex venue, is one of many specialised attractions Buenos Aires offers gay tourists, who have flocked there since Argentina’s 2002 currency devaluation made it one of the world’s most affordable destinations. Tourism officials reckon that at least a fifth of foreign visitors to the city are homosexuals.

In recent years, Buenos Aires has hosted a gay tourism symposium, a gay football tournament, a gay film festival and the first gay cruise in South American waters; it is now home to a gay hotel, a gay bookstore, and a network of stores providing discounts to customers wielding a “gay-friendly Buenos Aires” card. The influx of so-called “pink money” has become a pillar of the city’s economy. Gay tourists, most of whom are affluent and childless, spend on average around $250 a day on top of their hotel bill.

The city’s combination of European architectural elegance and Latin American flair at knock-down prices has attracted tourists of all sexual orientations. But unlike many other Latin American cities, Buenos Aires has established a reputation as being open and tolerant in a region where homophobia remains prevalent. It has been a regional leader in expanding gay rights.

The city council has approved a law authorising same-sex civil unions, and taken other measures that provide for benefits to pass to surviving partners in such unions and to require hospitals to refer to transgender patients by their chosen rather than legal names. And its array of gay-themed or gay-friendly venues comfortably eclipses the offerings in other Latin American capitals. “How many gay discos are there in Ecuador?” asks Alfredo Ferreyra of Buegay, a tour company. “Here, we speak the same language as our clients.”

Some complain that the gay scene in Buenos Aires has become too mainstream. They question how deep the tolerance goes. “I don’t know how people would react if you walk too close together with your partner or hold hands on the street,” says Urs Jenni, a Swiss guest at the Axel, a “heterofriendly” gay hotel where rooms cost up to $500 a night. The only notably gay element in its futuristic lobby is the silhouette of a man’s torso imprinted on a glass barrier.

Others worry that homosexual tourists are no better shielded from the world financial crisis than anyone else. “At this time of year, we had 120 to 150 people a night,” says Roxana Gargano, the organiser of La Marshall. “Now we’re down to around 80. It’s hit us pretty hard.”

GCC rumour, & Muslims banned from doing Yoga in Malaysia

GCC date change due to Saudi's?
I was talking to my contacts in the Al Bustan about how the refurbishment was going, and we talked about the recent GCC date change and hotel grabbing. They were adament that the Al Bustan would have been ready for the earlier planned date last week or so, and that the word they had reeceived was the reason for the change was to accomodate the Saudi's, who said they couldn't make the earlier date after all.



Also, they commented that the pricipal driver for pretty much everything will be security, given the high profile gathering will offer an obvious target for terrorist nutcases. Thats why the whole hotel will be taken, even if they don't need all the rooms. Plus cancelling the plans of the tourists at that time will actually make it easier for the security services - because there will be less people to keep an eye on.

The bill for the refurbishment is over 150 million rials. Sweet. As an aside, the famous '9th floor' of the Al Bustan is guarded 24/7 - even from the main refurbishment contractors of the rest of the hotel. The super-royal suites are apparently being redone by a separate contractor and is totally top secret.

And from Malaysia: Stretching limbs and aligning chakras damages religious faith.
In another example of Islamo-silliness, a story from Malaysia about banning Muslims from practicing yoga. Earlier they finally got around to banning women practicing lesbian sex and dressing 'like a man'.

Its not too often you get to read the words 'lesbian sex' in an Omani newspaper, but I like the trend Essa - keep it up.


Photo: Not allowed in Malaysia, especially if you're a lesbian

Times of Oman

Yoga forbidden for Muslims in Malaysia
AFP Saturday, November 22, 2008

KUALA LUMPUR: Muslims in Malaysia should not practice yoga because it will erode their faith in Islam, a senior Islamic cleric said Saturday.

"Yoga is forbidden for Muslims. The practice will erode their faith in the religion," Abdul Shukor Husin, chairman of the government-backed National Fatwa Council, told reporters. "We advice Muslims not to practice yoga. It does not conform with Islam," he said in response to a call to ban Muslims from doing yoga.

Islam is the official religion of Malaysia, where more than 60 percent of the population of 27 million are Muslim Malays who practice a conservative brand of the religion.

Yoga, an ancient Indian aid to meditation dating back thousands of years, is a popular stress-buster in Kuala Lumpur. Zakaria Stapa, a professor at the Islamic faculty of the National University of Malaysia, recently called on Muslims to stop doing yoga as it could cause them to "deviate from their faith".

Abdul Shukor said yoga involved physical and religious elements of Hinduism including the recitation of mantras. He could not say how many Muslims were practising yoga but called on state authorities to punish those who do.

The fatwa council, one of Malaysia's highest Islamic bodies, recently banned women from dressing or behaving like men and engaging in lesbian sex, saying it was forbidden by the religion.

Iran - the moose on the table for the GCC

Just in case you maybe think the GCC states are warming to Iran - here's a very interesting article in this week's Economist on the relationship between Iran and the UAE.

Must admit, nice timing to help with Oman's negotiations on accessing the Kish gas field at an economic price...

Yet one should remember that if anyone is 'the old enemy' of Oman it would not be Iran (who, albeit under the Shah, actually sent troops to assist HM in the civil war/Yemen insurgency of the early 1970s), but the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - as the KSA apparently actively funded the 60's insurgency, and was always looking to annex a part of western Oman.

Iran, in it's pursuit of regional hegemony, needs to get the chip off its shoulder with the USA because of the support given to Iraq during the 1980's war. They really must be kidding if they think they own the straights of Hormuz... Half of that passage is Omani.

The Gulf states
Caught in the middle but still perky

Nov 6th 2008
Buffeted by ill winds from Iran and Iraq, and rattled by the world’s financial turmoil, the Gulf states still look set to survive the troubles around them

AT THE heart of a region better known for tension and strife, and at a time of global financial anxiety, the rich Arab monarchies of the Gulf exude an unworldly calm. Their lucky citizens seem to inhabit an enchanted cocoon of marble-halled villas, hotels and shopping centres, awaft in costly scents, serviced by an obedient army of foreign workers and protected by the might of the American superpower. Amid such playthings as thoroughbred horses, hunting falcons, yachts, jets and flashy cars by the fleetful, Gulf rulers have pondered not how to stay in power but what new castles, towers and cities to build for their happy subjects.

Just now, according to one survey, they have some $2 trillion worth of mainly publicly-funded projects planned or under way, which may look excessive were it not that the size of the six national economies that make up the Gulf Co-operation Council—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—has tripled within five years to an overall GDP of close to $1 trillion.

Yet storm clouds loom over this air-conditioned Shangri-La. In the past six months the price of oil, the export commodity that underpins such fabulous wealth, has fallen by more than half from record highs. Local stock indices have tumbled in line with the rest of the world; the biggest, Saudi Arabia’s, has fallen by 45% since the start of the year. The portfolio losses sustained by the Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds, estimated a year ago to have accumulated some $1.5 trillion in overseas assets, may approach the $400 billion earned by the GCC from oil sales last year.

Small wonder that Gulf governments showed little enthusiasm when Britain’s prime minister, Gordon Brown, who recently toured the region, asked them to stump up extra cash for the IMF, though Gulf investors have jumped in to prop up Barclays, a British bank, with an infusion of £5.8 billion ($9.4 billion) that could raise their share of its equity to more than 30%.

And while, with few exceptions, the Gulf monarchies face little short-term pressure for internal reform, geopolitical pressures are mounting. To the north lies Iraq, whose current relative calm carries little assurance of lasting. On the opposite shore of the Gulf sits the Islamic Republic of Iran, a testy Shia theocracy with nearly twice the GCC’s population (70m-odd versus 38m or so) and a nuclear programme that most Arabs assume will sooner or later bear atomic bombs. A nuclear-armed Iran would not be a strategic counterbalance to the United States or Israel, says a think-tank man in the UAE’s Dubai, reflecting official worries. “The weapon would be used only to intimidate us, the ones who have nothing.”

Not only does Iran maintain that the Gulf is Persian in name. It also insists that its neighbours respect its own pre-eminence in the region, underscored by its success in penetrating Iraq and backing “resistance” forces such as Hizbullah, Lebanon’s leading Shia party-cum-militia, and Hamas, the Palestinians’ powerful Islamist movement. Sunni Arab monarchs fear that Iran may influence their own Shia citizens, who are repressed and restive in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, an island kingdom where Shias are a majority and which some Iranians continue to claim should belong to them (see map).

Iranian officials have a habit of sounding such sour notes, amid a sweeter chorus of benevolence towards their once barefoot Arab cousins. In case of attack, they have openly threatened to hit the American bases that dot the GCC monarchies and to blockade “indefinitely” the strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world’s exported oil flows. More recently, Iran said it plans to build a new base on its side of the strait. Besides, its forces have sat for years in occupation of three disputed islands in the Gulf, bluntly rejecting calls by the UAE, which has a strong legal case for ownership, to settle the issue of sovereignty by international arbitration.

Such tensions are partly historic, reflecting ancestral animosity between Arabs and Persians, as well as Iranian ire at the Gulf Arabs for their generous funding of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein during the brutal slaughter of the Iran-Iraq war in 1980-88. The GCC was founded, in 1981, largely for the rich and sparsely populated monarchies to fend off revolutionary Iran, which scornfully labelled the group an American club—with some justification, since they have all, with varying degrees of openness, hosted American forces on their land.

But Iran’s prickliness also reflects a confidence that, although its Arab neighbours are under an American military umbrella, they are neither strong nor unified enough to oppose the Islamic Republic. Despite prodding to toughen their stance towards Iran, particularly from the Bush administration, the GCC states have for the most part preferred to leave diplomacy to their Western allies.

One reason is that some of them enjoy extremely lucrative economic ties with Iran. Dubai, the regional trading hub that is one of the UAE’s seven statelets, handles an estimated 60% of Iran’s merchandise trade, hosts nearly 10,000 Iranian-owned firms and is linked to Iran by more than 250 flights a week.

The Gulf Arabs have also been reticent because of political differences. Saudi Arabia, with its physical size and pretensions to Sunni leadership, has tended to adopt a harder line towards an Islamic Republic whose head of state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, styles himself supreme commander of the Muslims. But diminutive and ultra-rich Qatar, which happens to share a giant natural-gas field with Iran and whose leaders have often been at odds with their Saudi cousins, has had reason to be warier. Many of the smaller Gulf states have, until recently, quietly worried as much about Saudi Arabia, a state that was created by conquest under an extremist Wahhabi ideology, as about the more distant regional heavyweight over the water.
Uncle Sam’s clodhoppers

The Arabs’ discomfort with their superpower patron has been another reason for toning down differences with Iran. It is not only that America’s troop presence, which citizens of the smaller Gulf states tend to accept as a necessary evil, is unpopular. It is also that, under Mr Bush, America has ridden roughshod over Gulf objections to such policies as invading Iraq and backing Israel in its war with Hizbullah in 2006.

So, instead of helping their erstwhile American ally by, for example, moving to challenge Iranian influence in Iraq or loudly protesting against Iran’s nuclear plans, the Gulf states have been largely passive. Countries such as the UAE have applied sanctions mandated by the UN Security Council against Iran, intended to punish it for failing to reveal the full extent of its nuclear programme and heed demands to stop enriching uranium. Yet they have continued to signal friendliness, to the point of inviting Iran’s controversial president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, last year for a pilgrimage to Mecca and to attend the GCC’s annual summit meeting. On October 28th the group’s secretary-general, Abdel Rahman Attiya, made a first-ever visit to Tehran, reiterating support for Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology and expressing hope for “cementing and consolidating” relations.

Yet there are signs that the Arabs’ patience with Iran is thinning. Mr Ahmadinejad has pointedly not been invited back, so far, to the GCC leaders’ meeting in February. For all his kind words in Tehran, Mr Attiya recently likened Iran’s occupation of the three Gulf islands claimed by the UAE to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land.

Iranian businessmen have lately complained that it is harder for them to do business via Dubai, since ever-fewer banks in the free-trading emirate are willing to open accounts for them. Arab governments are now keener to engage with Iraq, opening embassies in Baghdad in a belated effort to bolster forces not aligned with Iran. Meanwhile, they have quietly smoothed over their own differences. A striking rapprochement between the region’s diplomatic maverick, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, has been marked by a toning down of criticism of the Saudis by the popular Qatari-owned television channel, al-Jazeera.

Privately Gulf Arab officials sound much harsher about Iran, reflecting increased doubt that either diplomacy or economic sanctions can block its nuclear ambitions. “If the military option happens [ie, if the Americans or Israelis bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities], we will have no problem with that,” asserts a Gulf security expert. “If we reach a point where the choice is living with a nuclear Iran or suffering the consequences [of an attack], we would choose the latter.” Other analysts note that, despite the manpower imbalance between forces, Arab Gulf states are better equipped to damage Iran and resist counter-strikes. The UAE is due to become the first foreign country to deploy America’s most advanced air-defence system, capable of destroying incoming missiles at a range of 200km (124 miles). Already, Arab air forces far outgun Iran’s.

Sceptics of economic pressure on Iran may be proved wrong. In the GCC’s open economies, the effects of global financial turmoil are plain. Places such as Dubai, highly leveraged and with a swollen property bubble, may suffer harder shocks in the near future. Still, all the Arab monarchies have giant cash cushions, the biggest one belonging to Dubai’s generous sister emirate, Abu Dhabi. The GCC’s ambitious government budgets can probably stay in the black, even with oil prices sinking towards $50 a barrel, or could be trimmed at prices well below that with little pain.

Iran, by contrast, has little spare cash after three years of Mr Ahmadinejad’s spendthrift populism. With inflation nearing 30%, Iranians are already grumpy: witness a recent strike by bazaar merchants protesting against a plan to impose VAT, at 3%. Iran needs oil to stay at no less than $75 a barrel to maintain spending. While its isolation from the world economy, partly a result of sanctions, does provide a temporary buffer, a sustained decline in national income may yet focus minds on the cost of pursuing a nuclear programme that promises no benefit for many years to come.

The motorway disruption season begins

Ah yes, the quaint Omani tradition of closing down the motorways for visiting dignitaries has started again, with the arrival of the Indian prime minister.

Fucking great. No warning. Just shut down the only main road so some convoy can.... what? Feel special? Please.

I wish they would stop this. In the old days when the only traffic was a few goats, fine. But now its so disruptive. I have myself been treated to this in a different country once. And I'm able to confirm it makes you feel super-special, speeding along while the great unwashed sit and wait. Very special. I'm able to share that the fleeting guilt of making everyone else wait is transitory.

Is this the driver? To simply impress some visiting diplomat?

Shit, they even closed the motorway for the visit from the President of Belarus...
What the hell is it going to be like during the GCC conference? There are already - still unconfirmed from my side - mega rumors that the airport will be closed from 24-29 December. Hard to believe, yet who would possibly make that up? (note: anyone with any real info could please email me with details?)

People. Start making your emergency comms and transport plans now for that intra Xmas-New year zone. No decent bars or restaurants as they are all being closed, except Chedi [note Boxster - another reason to go with that PDO membership, you lucky bastard], roads clogged, airport closed (??), town full of Saudi civil servants on the piss... Lucky it doesn't happen every year I guess....

Hmmm.

What I'd do: The AGCC Conference - and cancelling tourist reservations

Lots of interesting comments on the previous hotel cancelation story. Amjad had a good question: what did I think should be done? Rather than comment back, it started getting a bit long, so here it is as a post.

All in all Amjad - I'd guess I'd have done a hell of a lot more work and planning than seems evident...

1/ Generally the Government should look pretty seriously at who it puts in charge of such things and get someone who can plan and execute a programme of this magnitude more effectively. [That said, I suspect its only a small part of the organisational effort thats going a bit awry.]

2/ On the topic at hand - AGCC date change, hotel and flights cancelled, derogatory stories on Oman and HM in the international media, annoyed hoteliers and travel agents:

The issue is the late timing change - people book holidays many many months in advance. If you - as a travel agent - had made the block hotel bookings and made arrangements with airlines, I doubt you'd want to leave selling the packages you created until just 2 months to go! 60 days is almost nothing.

I would have already had a compensation plan ready to roll out [my estimate, ~1000 people, at 1000 pounds + some PR costs = 1 million rials. Thats peanuts compared to the overall budget for the conference].

I would first have had people pro-actively engage with the travel agents and the hotels, to find out exactly the best options (ie: not a top-down blanket order to take all 6 hotels for a fixed period), and to tell them that we understood the problems this would cause, that compensation and assistance would be provided, and to give some explanation(s) for why the late notice was totally unavoidable.

I would be a bit more careful how many rooms I take. I still find it hard to believe they need all 6 hotels. Sounds like someone just being extra-safe to have enough rooms (and regardless of the consequences), probably because the basic work on exactly how many rooms, where and when hasn't been done yet.

The whole thing would tie into a pre-existing and much broader communications & PR strategy and plan, already aimed at maximising the good press for Oman and HM that hosting such a major conference offers. Hosting AGCC should be a huge free PR BOOST to the Omani tourism industry, especially in the GCC markets, but also internationally. That takes an effort tho'. (Of course I would have a professional PR/Communications company with demonstrable experience in doing this stuff involved a long time ago.)

I certainly would be doing some urgent action [cash & PR] to correct the current situation of articles like this appearing about HM and the way Oman doesn't seem to care about ruining the holiday plans of hundreds of customers.

I'd be trying to turn the current cock-up into a great story about how some Omanis did fantastically, dealing with a crisis that was caused by forces outside their control, getting people sorted out, organising the event, etc.

In fact, I'd already have planned for a whole host of mini so-called 'human interest' stories on many of the key people involved in executing such a massive event, : the security guys, IT, logistics, chefs, entertainment, Oman Air, the airport, the protocol people, emergency medical staff, local tourist operators who will host some delegates, .... All with nice little stories and pictures so that not just the Times of Oman would print them, but they could go on the wire. The messages in the stories would be tied into a 'red thread' strategic message of Omani friendliness, competence, efficiency, hospitality, trust, & an example of the successful development since the 'blessed renaissance'.

And this is just the PR slant. Actually running an event like this is a HUGE undertaking.

Plan B
But I suspect the real actions going forward will be performed by who-ever thinks they have a good chance to take the hit for the mess-up:
- Try and ignore it. If no-one reads about it or talks about it, there is no problem. Certainly ensure there is nothing reoported in the local press. If ignoring it doesn't work, try and hush it all up.
- Ensure that lots of stories go out about how politically important the conference is for Oman, how everyone is looking forward to it, how fantastic everything is going.
- Stress how plenty of notice was given to the hotels, and that very few people are affected. Point out how many other hotels there are, and that keeping a few people from the west happy, people who selfishly wanted to celebrate Christmas by threatening the most imprtant conference on the ME agenda, people who don't understand how important this is to Omanis and the region, is immaterial. State that these whining expats with their fancy spoilt tourist tastes are the unfortunate few who are totally non-representative of the many who are very happy to go somewhere else, or to reschedule for a later time, and that anyhow its all the responsibility of the Hotel management, because as previously pointed out the Government gave them loads of warning.
- See how much I can lay at the feet of external forces beyond my control.
- Attack the Telegraph story and any other negative reports as being insulting, totally incorrect and simply infamatory. (for a good example of how to use attack as a form of defense when faced with a bad story, see the well organised Government response to the recently critical US State Dept report). Imply that we are seeking to take legal action to protect our reputation from such unfair attacks. Hopefully I can even figure out a way to tie ownership of the Telegraph to the Israelis. Worst case I could just get someone else to imply the Israelis are behind it.
- Stress contantly how the very best efforts have been made by everyone in the Government to host such a complicated and important conference. Efforts that simply could not have been better, because they were perfect.
- Have some stories on how great the Al Bustan Palace Hotel is looking, and how valiantly the impact of the devastating unsual weather was overcome.
- Ensure my immediate superiors are reported as having done an outstanding job.
- ...

You get the idea.
You can also see how useful Essa would be in implementing either plan...

Does that answer your question?

Currency Revaluation Stalls

Sorry for the wait - was overseas on business and could not get a moment free to blog. Apologies!

As you will know, the GCC last week decided not to announce an immediate revaluation last week. Anonymous pointed out that I'd given "too much credit to the GCC fiscal policy makers."

Indeed. I had expected a quick 5-10% revaluation, especially of the UED, to postpone discussion on switching to a basket of currencies, and to stop the huge inflows of speculative money. I was wrong.

I think at the Doha talks it was mainly the Saudi's who refused to play along, knowing what damage it would do to the dollar (and their friends in Washington) and their vast investments that are dollar denominated. The official comments that came out from Bahrain and Qatar, after the talks, shows that the issue of revaluation was indeed discussed. What I found most interesting - as pointed out by a Standard Chartered Bank report yesterday - was that the official Doha communique did NOT state that a revaluation was NOT going to happen!

There was clearly an inability of the GCC States to agree, but at least it seems they agreed not to act unilaterally.

Perhaps the GCC see it as a link to the common currency and will thus wait until 2009? But at these oil prices the problem will not go away. If the dollar stops falling, at least imported inflation will get a lot better, inflation being a sustained rise in the price of goods and services. But the real problem is the inability of the GCC under a dollar peg to raise interest rates to reduce liquidity in the economies. It doesn't help either that world food prices are skyrocketing in any currency. The bottom line will be a need for pay increases for both State and Private employees in the GCC and more inflation to come.

I'd still hold AEDs until at least after December...

Act Now - Momentum builds to Rial and GCC revaluation

Recent media and press reports are building rapidly to prepare the ground for a revaluation of the GCC currencies, including the Omani Rial. A great example is Wednesday's story in Arabian Business and here.
The latest issue of international magazine The Economist also called for a GCC revaluation at minimum, and expressed a preference for a basket that included the oil price explicitly. The brother of Oman's powerful Minister of National Economy was also quoted last week musing in the press that a 5% revaluation would be appropriate, importantly making the link to Oman's previous devaluation when oil prices were low and advocating a simple revaluation while remaining on a dollar peg. The well-connected and perceptive Muscati also reported last week that those in the know in the Omani Government are moving money into AED.
I suspect the 'compromise' agreement will be a general GCC revaluation of 5-10% announced very very soon - maybe before Wednesday as the GCC meets Monday - while retaining a dollar peg. I think a basket a-la Kuwait will prove too difficult in the short term to agree on. Once the decision has been made, and all indications are that it has already been made except perhaps the exact % amount, the change will need to come very quickly to avoid massive speculation.
So, dragon's advice - get as many Dhirams as you can today or tomorrow, or at least don't sell rials for USD or other currency for a week or so. The rial may not revalue as far as the UED. Once the market decides a revaluation [or devaluation] is on the cards it quickly becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy as the flow of funds can overwhelm even the largest Central Bank resources. So, fill your boots kids, and make a cool short-term return. You can be sure the GCC won't be devaluing, so there's not a lot of downside here...