Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Updated: Happy Anniversary to Cyclone Gonu - another Tropical Cyclone could be on its way again...

UPDATE
As indicated previously, the cyclone is now modeled to turn not quite as fast as previously reported. This means Muscat will almost certainly experience heavy rain tomorrow and Friday, with moderate to strong winds (at best - it can still get worse).

Masirah Island and Ras Al Had are being evacuated as a precaution right now. I still don't think its another Gonu, at least not yet, but this will depend on how quickly the cyclone turns and how bad it builds before landfall. It will turn eventually - what the models are struggling to predict (because of a paucity of good data... hmm...) is how sharply and quickly it will turn right.

Wind speeds in the core have already gone up from 90 knots to 120 knots.

Latest predicted track is shown below.



So, stock up on the standard cyclone kit (you're already prepared, right?) Cancel those fishing trips (except for reader OMR, who is encouraged to brave this US/Israeli Military conspiracy), or camping trips, gas up all your cars, and get the candles and batteries ready, etc. You can find lots of advice on earlier posts, How to Love Davy, etc etc.

Basically - prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. It should at least cool the place down and give it a good wash.



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Yes folks, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center another Tropical Cyclone is busy spinning away in the Arabian Ocean and is heading straight for Muscat. The Cyclone is rapidly building in intensity and latest reports had wind speeds of 90knots with gusts up to 110knots.

However, the experts' preferred models currently predict Tropical Cyclone "Phet" (it's a big enough storm to get a name) will encounter a strong westerly wind long before reaching our shores, and will then make a right turn towards Karachi, Pakistan.

Graphic: The predicted path of Tropical Cyclone Phet shows it avoiding Oman.

Maybe.

The warning report notes that some models show it not turning right as quickly, and that scenario would give us some strong wind and rain on July June 4th and 5th. (see the bold text in the report below). NOTE: even then at this stage it is not a 'Gonu' situation where the storm headed almost directly over Muscat. All the models show it turning right well before coming here. So far.

Here's the warning notice. More updates tomorrow, or you can just visit the JTWC.


REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 15 NM RAGGED
EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS.
AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE EASTERN CLUSTER
(ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER
TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN
THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE POSSIBLE
PROBLEMS WITH BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY INTO OMAN. GFS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE WITH TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WHILE
NOGAPS HAS RECENTLY JUMPED WEST AND SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OF
THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON
THESE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND THE AVAILABLE DATA, THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36.

TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

9 comments:

  1. Well as we were here last time, I've just taken the precaution of buying in some extra water, so we don't have to go out in the rain.

    If the forcast is right the worst bit is probably going to be the inevitable power cuts!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. "The warning report notes that some models show it not turning right as quickly, and that scenario would give us some strong wind and rain on July 4th and 5th."

    So that gives us a month to prepare then! :P

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the heads up, do you mean 5th June, or is this a slow moving cyclone? Had a look at the forecast and a few storms on the horizon too.

    ReplyDelete
  4. http://howtolivelikeanomaniprincess.blogspot.com/2010/06/how-to-plan-for-hurricane-phet-from.html

    Most info taken from Florida's storm warnings page LOL, for Gonu the first time round.

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://howtolivelikeanomaniprincess.blogspot.com/2010/06/emergancy-contact-information-in-case.html

    Info from the ROP. They are on green alert already and looks like the status will update to more urgent soon.

    ReplyDelete
  6. ummm has the ROP or the Oman Gov't notified the ENGLISH speaking expat community that this was coming. I found out by accident late yesterday.

    Omans media is pathetic and the tv and radio no better. Please start having LIVE updates during an impedending emergency rather than images of Salalaha again and again. Seriously.

    Also where is the gov't or police info on what to do and not to do before and after a cyclone. What? Nothing....

    ya...prepared.

    sure

    zero.

    ReplyDelete
  7. "I found out by accident late yesterday"

    What does that tell you when all people knew about it days ago.

    You want an English media too, good. How about a crown as well.

    Maybe you need to find out what actions the government is taking. Not just set on your chair and write about your accidents!

    "I found out by accident late yesterday" FUNNY

    ReplyDelete
  8. OmanTV DID have alot of coverage and had stuff on in English ON the Arabic channel (the second OManTV, not the one with all the forts and pretty pictures and a long continuous helicopter footage montage). There is also an Oman gov. radio in English. I'm an English speaking expat.... It isn't that hard to find out.

    The ROP also were answering any questions from those who phoned (they have English lines) and the airport gave good weather references. As for the ROP website, um yeah, that SHOULD be updated with info but is not but you can write them and suggest that.

    Their current alert is orange. Yesterday was green.

    ReplyDelete
  9. http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefresources/TSR/200702A_02A.htm

    http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    Above are the paths of cyclone Gonu and Phet, just to compare...

    ReplyDelete

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