Updated: Happy Anniversary to Cyclone Gonu - another Tropical Cyclone could be on its way again...

UPDATE
As indicated previously, the cyclone is now modeled to turn not quite as fast as previously reported. This means Muscat will almost certainly experience heavy rain tomorrow and Friday, with moderate to strong winds (at best - it can still get worse).

Masirah Island and Ras Al Had are being evacuated as a precaution right now. I still don't think its another Gonu, at least not yet, but this will depend on how quickly the cyclone turns and how bad it builds before landfall. It will turn eventually - what the models are struggling to predict (because of a paucity of good data... hmm...) is how sharply and quickly it will turn right.

Wind speeds in the core have already gone up from 90 knots to 120 knots.

Latest predicted track is shown below.



So, stock up on the standard cyclone kit (you're already prepared, right?) Cancel those fishing trips (except for reader OMR, who is encouraged to brave this US/Israeli Military conspiracy), or camping trips, gas up all your cars, and get the candles and batteries ready, etc. You can find lots of advice on earlier posts, How to Love Davy, etc etc.

Basically - prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. It should at least cool the place down and give it a good wash.



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Yes folks, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center another Tropical Cyclone is busy spinning away in the Arabian Ocean and is heading straight for Muscat. The Cyclone is rapidly building in intensity and latest reports had wind speeds of 90knots with gusts up to 110knots.

However, the experts' preferred models currently predict Tropical Cyclone "Phet" (it's a big enough storm to get a name) will encounter a strong westerly wind long before reaching our shores, and will then make a right turn towards Karachi, Pakistan.

Graphic: The predicted path of Tropical Cyclone Phet shows it avoiding Oman.

Maybe.

The warning report notes that some models show it not turning right as quickly, and that scenario would give us some strong wind and rain on July June 4th and 5th. (see the bold text in the report below). NOTE: even then at this stage it is not a 'Gonu' situation where the storm headed almost directly over Muscat. All the models show it turning right well before coming here. So far.

Here's the warning notice. More updates tomorrow, or you can just visit the JTWC.

REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 15 NM RAGGED
EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS.
AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE EASTERN CLUSTER
(ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER
TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE POSSIBLE
PROBLEMS WITH BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY INTO OMAN. GFS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE WITH TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WHILE
NOGAPS HAS RECENTLY JUMPED WEST AND SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OF
THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON
THESE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND THE AVAILABLE DATA, THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
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