Oh you tease! Cyclone determined to try to make it to Muscat - again Cyclone Phet fails to keep turning

Warning: Cyclone fails to turn and hits landfall in Oman, heads back toward Muscat.




Time for the latest update from the JTWC - the Cyclone is again heading closer to Muscat and has attained landfall in Oman. It is somehow sucking in enough wet air to keep going as a cyclone even as it crosses the Omani interior!

It seems Cyclone Phet is trying hard to be the little cyclone that could.

So, keep those hatches battened and don't be deceived by the lack of fury so far.

The full report:

REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 03A HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TRACK
AND HAS MAINTAINED TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON AN
EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, TC 03A IS CUR-
RENTLY MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN OMAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS PHET MOVING SLOWLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION
OF OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARD THE BASE OF A SLOWLY-
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ANALYZED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, AN INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC
03A WILL BEGIN TO RE-ORIENT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREAFTER, A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEYOND TAU 48,
HELPING TC 03A TO ACCELERATE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT TC 03A HAS
BEEN ABLE TO BUFFER ITSELF FROM A MAJORITY OF THE DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE ARABIAN SEA FROM SOUTHERN OMAN, WHICH IN TURN HAS ALLOWED
TC 03A TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
PHET IS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF OMAN, CONTINUED INFLOW OF
WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW, WILL ALLOW PHET
TO AVOID RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE COAST BEFORE IT EMERGES BACK IN THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WATER, INCREASING INFLOW
OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, PRE-
VENTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY INDUCING LOW
WEAKENING. LANDFALL INTO PAKISTAN AROUND TAU 84 WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO
THE DISSIPATION OF TC 03A BY TAU 96. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z.//
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