Middle East populist 'Contagion' reaches Oman - Violence is without popular support. Sultan Qaboos retains confidence.

Wow. What a week since February 26th. (Note: I've been on the road, little access to the 'net, so apologies for the delay getting back to you!)

The protests that started in Sohar (with some idiotic and pointless violence by some of those 'idle hands') have expanded rapidly, encouraged by the immediate response it got from HM, and it has certainly rattled not just Oman's ruling clique, but also our neighbours to the West ("if it can happen in Oman, no-one is safe"). As a result, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi are even offering Bahrain and Oman aid money to throw at the population.

The foreign press is also variable. Foreign Policy noted that HM Sultan Qaboos, "Oman's renaissance man", shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as the butcher of Tripoli Ghadaffi.The FT's Simeon Kerr posted a great article on his time as "an honoured guest of the Oman military". It sooo captures the spirit of Oman!

Photo: The now infamous Globe roundabout in Sohar. Pic ripped shamelessly from the blog of Dan & Jillian

Note: For up to date info on Oman's riots, as I'm only blogging remotely, please check out Muscat Mutterings. In Sohar: the excellent blog of expat couple Dan & Jillian; in Salalah: Ever reliable Dhofari Gucci. Tourists should not cancel their holidays, by the way. All accounts indicate the country is safe, although actually visiting the sites of the protests should be undertaken carefully.

I have little sympathy for those killed in Sohar while attempting to storm a police station - what did they think was going to happen? It's not something that should have cost Al Mamari his job, IMHO.


Meanwhile,
As you will have read all over the net, Tunisian(?)-style riots were happening in Oman over the past week. It seems there were enough bored youngsters combined with a significant number of those suffering with low salaries to get out and wave plackards. But unlike the other riots in the regions there are a few key differences:

1/ There is no popular support at all for anything against His Majesty.
These riots, especially those with any violence or that show disrespect to the Sultan, are not supported by most adults in Oman. In fact, there is a general disbelief that violent protesters are even 'true Omani'. They're apparently either Emiratis, or 'Baluchis'. Or ... well, anyone else. Afterall, burning a Lulu hypermarket is really, really dumb. They were one of the few sources of unskilled Omani employment they had!

2/ No coherent organisation.
The demands are legion, and often both self serving and facile. 'Forgive all private debts', 'reduce the prices of things' etc. There is also a smattering of Saudi-style religious extremism 'segregate the schools'. As a result, some of the more potent messages, such as turning the Majlis Al Shura into a true legislative body, are being diluted. But the generally accepted demands are: jobs, more action for getting rid of corruption, more power to the Majlis Al Shura.

3/ Mainly stupid unemployed youngsters with nothing better to do.
Other movements have been broad based: including the middle class, military, academics, exiled leaders, women, etc. The ones in Sohar seem to be just ignorant youth with a desire to emulate the other countries and a message mainly involving 'give me stuff for free, especially cash'. How else to explain the total stupidity of trying to attack a police station with stones and molitof cocktails? This is changing however, as protests spread and are increasingly seen to be successful in getting results from the Government - especially in Salalah and now to Petroleum Development Oman staff near Haima.

4/ No agenda of 'regime change'
Even the violent protests have supported His Majesty and the core principles of benign dictatorship. Yes, there are compliants about corruption, but it's all within a general acceptance of the current system. Muscat Mutterer reported a demand for a new constitution however.

As other bloggers on the scene have indicated, there is no danger to the general populace as long as you don't go hanging around the site of a protest (and probably not even then).

The Omani Government's response, however, has been lacklustre.
Come on guys. Since the protest movement spread to Egypt, and certainly Bahrain, could you not have done some thinking in advance about how you would respond if it happened here too?

The announcements so far are unfortunately characteristic of the general ineptitude of the Omani Government of late: poorly thought through, knee-jerk reactions & top down statements of intent with no description of the 'how' or even the underlying principles (perhaps with the one possible exception of the desire to seperate puplic prosecution from the Police). The royal decree to 'create 50,000 jobs' was a classic example: this could have come as a school project from the very high schools that are pumping out these idiotic rioters. Where are 50,000 jobs supposed to come from? Doing what exactly?

As in Saudi, the urge is to throw money at the problem and try putting on a bandaid to cover up the core problems. Announcing a universal unemployment benefit of 150 rials will just make things worse - if anything creating a larger disinsentive to avoid work, and subsiding idleness. And I'm sure the chance of a private business firing an Omani will now become (if this was possible) even more difficult, again, exactly the opposite of what's needed! The general uselessness of the unemployed youth to do anything that generates a profit, combined with their poor education, lack of work ethic, and an overwhelming sense of entitlement already serve to make imported labour (cheaper, smarter, work harder, and essentially bonded to their employer) the way to go.

So, as I watch the Reuters and FT reports, my expectations are low. [Note to foreign journos - please find another adjective to describe Oman than 'sleepy'] All signs are that the system will trundle on, a reshuffle here, a study there, a lot more public money thrown at the squeeky wheels.


What would I do?
OK. Here's some ideas. I'd love to hear what you think. What ideas do you have?

Allow a free media & crack down on mysterious income sources.
Encourage debate of public policy alternatives & allow the exposure of poor government outcomes. Have public trials for corruption cases and name them in the papers. Insist Senior Government figures and their immediate families publish the sources of income, and setting up income tax above say, 50,000 rials per year. Institute a wealth tax for assets (including international assets) above 200k (with an excemption for 1 domestic house up to 500k) at around 1% per annum. Punish tax evasion severely. Put term limits on Ministers so they can only be in power a maximum of 8 years. People should note that even saying the Government system is not perfect is currently illegal in Oman. A lot of these poorly defined and potentially highly draconian laws restricting the media and civil society need to be axed.

Change the political system.
Establish a new constitution that puts the Majlis on a path to take charge of legislation, along with accountability for results. Allow political parties. Ensure the religious extremists cannot overturn the rights of women. Allow real unions, especially for the underclass of manual imported labour.

Improve Educational meaningfulness.
Establish a University dedicated to the study of the business of Government. Ban degrees from useless 'paper mill Universities'. Seperate the delivery of education from its testing, to try and get students actually learning rather than 'passing' fake exams while being allowed to plagiarise and cheat.

Level the employment playing field.
Start to break up the oligarchs by taxing all imported labour at a flat minimum rate, say 30 rials per month, plus a % of their salary above that. At the same time, allow Omani's to be fired much more easily (even if they can only be replaced by another Omani). Over time, crank up the minimum rate and the %. The objective is to make it a lot more expensive to hire a non-Omani, and certainly more than the minimum wage for an Omani employee. Once this is done, make it easier to hire foreign workers to ensure businesses that need specialised labour from overseas can get them.

Stimulate the SME private sector.
Encourage SMEs that actually do something by allowing home run businesses below 50k per year with minimal regulation beyond basic HSE & public health related issues. Make it easy to register and run a business by cutting most of the red tape required by the Municipalities and Ministries. Get lots of low cost Small Claims courts established for matters below 5k. Start to break up the monopolies of the Zubairs, Bahwans, Kimjis, et al.

Bring in Compulsory pseudo-military service.
Start giving all these unemployed youth a job for 18 months between high school and University that brings discipline and on the job training in life skills. Get them building infrastructure projects, helping in orphanages, picking up trash, building housing for the poor, ... anything to get them off their fat asses. Do not allow unemployment benefit to be paid unless they have done this. And make sure any unemployment benefit is time limited - it should be temporary (no more than 6 months).

Widen the tax base.
Bring in a Value Added Tax (not just a sales tax). Compensate lower income earners by increasing the minimum wage. Increase the tax on imports (currently just 5%) to the maximum extent the World Trade Organisation allows and apply to anything that could be made/grown in Oman.

Reduce population growth
The place can't sustain 3rd world birth rates combined with the modern medical care that ensures they survive. Have a child allowance for 1 or 2 kids per male, that then is taken away at 3 or more. Make education free for the first 2, then charge after that (again, by reducing Government handouts).

Reduce tribalism.
Yes, subsidise weddings (as they do in the UAE), but double the subsidy if the couple are from different tribes. Conversely, if the couple are first cousins, there should be no subsidy. There is no reason we should be encouraging further in-breeding.

OK. That's it for now.

Postscript:
Her Majesty the Queen of the Netherlands is coming to visit (a 'personal' visit at that) after all. It seems the Queen was worried that cancelling would give people the mistaken impression that she was siding with the protesters...