This recent plummet seems to have gotten the small investors running for the hills and the market shows signs of turning into a rout. If you know anyone who's been getting into the market in the last few months, they've probably taken a bath, especially if they borrowed to invest. You might quote the Bhagavad Gita to them...
"hell has 3 gates: lust, anger and greed". And that its only a paper loss unless they sell.
[Although my personal favorite quote on greed is from PJ O'Rourke, the American satirist, "No drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we're looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn't test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power."]
Since the market peaked on June 11th, the market index is down nearly 22%. Ouch. But remember the index is still up over 40% since this time last year, so it was always likely that Muscat's recent over-exuberance would calm somewhat.
The institutional sharks (possibly with the support of the Government's coffers as HM's government is probably the largest investor in the market) will now start to circle I expect. Some of the shares look like good bargains at these prices on historic P/E (price/earnings) ratios (check out Bank Muscat). Even Galfar and Omantel look under-priced, but, hey, what do I know.
Certainly watch for the dead cat bounce. If the index drops below 8000 even I might buy in...
(Note that this blog is not a source of investment advice, and any readers are advised to do their own research. Do not make any decisions based on this blog).
Source MSM website
Company Price Change
Aug 11, 2008 01:08 PM
Company, Price, %change,
OMINVEST (OMVS ) 0.909 -9.82%
ONIC. HOLDING (ONIC ) 0.991 -9.42%
MAHA PETROLEUM (MHAS ) 16.052 -9.36%
OMAN CABLE INDUSTRY (OCAI ) 2.802 -9.03%
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT ) 0.435 -8.61%
AL HASSAN ENG. (HECI ) 0.266 -8.59%
UNITED FINANCE (UFCI ) 0.312 -8.24%
GALFAR ENGINEERING (GECS ) 1.567 -8.20%
OMAN UNITED INS. (OUIS ) 0.370 -8.19%
NATIONAL ALUMINUIM (NAPI ) 0.550 -8.18%
BANK MUSCAT (BKMB ) 1.529 -5.79%
OMANTEL (OTEL ) 1.883 -7.15%
AL ANWAR HOLDING (AAIT ) 0.435 -8.61%
RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS ) 1.441 -5.32%
NAT. BK. OF OMAN (NBOB ) 0.559 -7.30%
It's an excellent time to buy. If I had money to invest I'd definitely get in now. BankMuscat is a steal at 1.5. The bank's profit is up 43% and yet its share price has taken a dive. The share is worth at least RO. 2.2, if not more.
ReplyDeleteAhlibank is supposedly a good buy. Omantel will come back to 2.3. Renaissance might go to 2 rials by beginning of the year.
The only question is when to enter the market. Will the decline will continue for a day or two resulting in even more value, or will the reversal come from tomorrow.
I like your quote from Geetha.
ReplyDeleteCan expats invest in MSM, what is the procedure? Could somebody explain how to go about investing in MSM. Is there any good online platform?
Muscati
ReplyDeleteWelcome back. What's all this 'íf I...' stuff- I thought you were a company director now?
But, mate, you should have caught the bounce 2 days ago... a 7% return (min) was yours!!!
Anon
Of course you can - even scary foreigners living overseas can: thats where the selling pressure was coming from! Follow the link to MSM and get a broker. But be careful!
And pick a FUKCIN nickname'&*^%*&^%*&%(&%.
I swear if you idiots force me to block anonymous comments because you simply keep being insufficiently creative to pick a totally anonymous pseudonym, what an indictment of the quality of commentators I'm getting is that!!??!!