Hmmmm. Lets keep an eye on this the next few days. You can see a picture of it here.
God damn it. I don't mind getting a few days off and my house is high on a ridge, but, seriously. Nothing much has been done to improve the drainage has it. And I have many friends who got flooded last time.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 66.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 042120Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DIS-
TURBANCE IS AIDING SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. ... STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, REINFORCING RECENT LOW
LEVEL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. ...
BASED ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION, AND WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Well, we shall see. I just hope some lessons got learned last time.
ReplyDeleteExcellent Shirley Bassey/Propellerheads ref, by the way!
The warning was reissued at 1930 GMT last night. Still saying "good" chance of "significant" cyclone. Text follows:
ReplyDelete1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 63.9E TO 22.3N 60.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 63.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 051750Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THIS LLCC HAS PROGRESSED WESTWARD OUT-
SIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY-FORECASTED FORMATION AREA, NECESSITATING
THIS REISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR MAY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUEL WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THIS CONVEC-
TION IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON GOOD LOW LEVEL ORGANIZA-
TION, AND WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING AS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.
And the alert's been cancelled thank god! : )
ReplyDeleteAnd the alert's been cancelled thank god! : )
ReplyDelete