tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post319420152465058852..comments2024-03-27T11:21:40.742+04:00Comments on Muscat Confidential: Oman reduces oil price assuption for 2009 budget from $55 to $45Undercover Dragonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10577931944980469254noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-20301082360005185612008-12-04T08:07:00.000+04:002008-12-04T08:07:00.000+04:00OmanymousBy 'know' I mean having knowledge through...Omanymous<BR/><BR/>By 'know' I mean having knowledge through first hand experience. And in general Omanis have not experienced lay offs, etc, very much.<BR/><BR/>OIUS<BR/>To an extent, I agree. Everything was getting totally crazy before the crash. If you were in cash, you did well.<BR/><BR/>Willie, Boxster, JD, T...<BR/>Lets hope. I'd prefer $80 as soon as possible. Its all up to Saudi.Undercover Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10577931944980469254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-58283595006195159682008-12-04T02:30:00.000+04:002008-12-04T02:30:00.000+04:00I think it might drop slightly to 40 at the max. I...I think it might drop slightly to 40 at the max. It's my opinion only , not a fact. Oil is very sensitive to bad (and good) news and we have had more than our share of bad news for the past 3 months.<BR/><BR/>I believe the reasons why oil will not go any lower are:<BR/><BR/>1. The whole world is already either in recession (US, Europe, Japan etc.) or witnessing slowing growth (China, India, Russia and the GCC)<BR/><BR/>2. The US dollar has appreciated quite a bit in the same period (it is known that a strengthening dollar translates to a lower oil price)<BR/><BR/>3. Even with all of this financial meltdown , oil consumption did not drop, only increase in consumption has been much lower than expected.<BR/><BR/>A lower oil price could be witnessed if China and India slow down drastically or enter recession, but look on (hope for) the brighter side always.<BR/><BR/>Lets all believe my opinion so we can feel safe about our jobs (again) :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-19517785314944716482008-12-03T22:33:00.000+04:002008-12-03T22:33:00.000+04:00our jobsour jobsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-27499493159003280262008-12-03T22:32:00.000+04:002008-12-03T22:32:00.000+04:00I would disagree that Americans are interested in ...I would disagree that Americans are interested in cheap oil. The outgoing administration wants expensive oil for their buddies (drill baby drill); the incoming administration wants expensive oil to justify planned investments into green energy and infrastructure. <BR/><BR/>There is no way we will see $20 oil. Unless China takes a long weekend off. Once winter really kicks in state-side (one-two months), we'll see prices going up again. The <A HREF="http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/could-this-winters-weather-add-to-economic-woes" REL="nofollow">Farmer's Almanac is predicting</A> a brutal winter as well. So no worries, your jobs are safe =DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-27499985969189536742008-12-03T20:54:00.000+04:002008-12-03T20:54:00.000+04:00If it goes to $20, I'll be in there like a shot. F...If it goes to $20, I'll be in there like a shot. <BR/>From what I have been reading and speaking to people about, it is highly unlikely that it will fall much lower. <BR/>If it stays around $50 for a year and then starts to creep up, I think it would be a nice investment.<BR/><BR/>(Just my probably highly naive and amateur "stock market newbie" opinion.)<BR/><BR/>JDJet Driverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08244136139124941733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-78228049394294631522008-12-03T20:44:00.000+04:002008-12-03T20:44:00.000+04:00Much as I like the idea of oil holding up over $50...Much as I like the idea of oil holding up over $50 - $75 bl for the sake of all our jobs, I do think a hard rain is gonna fall. What say $20 in Q1 2009? Also, if it does go real low can Obama do a Beach Boy's hit on the NG in Iran?<BR/><BR/>Willie DryerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-86032269025923144212008-12-03T20:04:00.000+04:002008-12-03T20:04:00.000+04:00Everyone keeps lamenting economy this, economy tha...Everyone keeps lamenting economy this, economy that. I for one think it's great; it gives companies an excuse to get rid of deadwood.<BR/><BR/>-Omani in USAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-32362934115695802592008-12-03T20:03:00.000+04:002008-12-03T20:03:00.000+04:00Omanis dont know about lay offs and redundancies b...Omanis dont know about lay offs and redundancies because the labor market is still in its infancy (not because of ignorance) ... as the market place matures and become more (or less) regulated with Oman entering into more international agreement you will see that all these things will start to change ... its a process that has a positive long term impact ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-82243845117588119542008-12-03T18:35:00.000+04:002008-12-03T18:35:00.000+04:00Per,Man, if I knew the answer to that, I wouldn...Per,<BR/><BR/>Man, if I knew the answer to that, I wouldn't need to be here working. <BR/><BR/>But its hard to believe it can stay sub-$50 for much more than a year. In the end, it will depend on OPEC cutting production significantly, and that means Saudi bringing Iran and Venezuela into line. <BR/><BR/>But... will they? The Americans will want low prices, both for the economy, and to give a wake up call to Iran/Venezuela/Russia. And Saudi still rely heavily on US support. <BR/><BR/>Plus, extreme volatility is a fundamental outcome of the oil market, when marginal costs are so low for everyone, but especially the big producers (<$2/bbl), and there is huge 'beta' due to the nature of the physical market combined with leveraged speculation.<BR/><BR/>All I can be relatively sure of, long term (>5yrs), the average oil price must go around $80 at least, or the world will just not not get the massive investment needed to sustain production, and supply will naturally wane.Undercover Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10577931944980469254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6283845125208268798.post-7495287947293273262008-12-03T18:14:00.000+04:002008-12-03T18:14:00.000+04:00I agree with you. One of the biggest problems is t...I agree with you. One of the biggest problems is the artificial rigidity of the labor market. Relaxing the firing/layoff process might actually increase employment of the locals. Combine that with a well designed, not to generous, unemployment insurance, and we might have us a Labor market.<BR/>With reference to Oil prices, do you expect prices to be as low for the next couple of years? Just curious on your take.Abdullah Al-Bahrani https://www.blogger.com/profile/01538837021738519512noreply@blogger.com